Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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This stock has potential and fundamentals are good although the technical side has deteriorate a bit.
As of today GMCI has broken an important support level at about 2.05 and has cut it like butter; this place the stock in what we call no man's land. No real support until about $1.60. So under market conditions you may want to wait for a discounted price to buy. Stock close today at $1.85. If you are long you may want to step out and pick it up at the bottom since short is out reach here. Anyways just a suggestion. It has lost about 40% in just about 4 weeks.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/2/2005
Posts: 7
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Do you have any idea, why CMGI falling down like rock ? I know,that TA is not so great like before a few days/weeks , but nothing changed about fundemantals.. So why CMGI loosing everything what gained after first good report ?
Thanks
Roarke
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 13
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As I look at the Stock CMGI, I see no reason to own it right now. It is in a BEARISH Trend and the next support is at $1.25ish.
I never buy a stock JUST BEFORE EARNINGS. At that point you are flipping a coin on what the Big Guys will do with it.
Also look at the Market Direction, it is hard to be long in a Market that is correcting and headed DOWN.
IMHO
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Registered User
Joined: 1/2/2005
Posts: 7
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QUOTE (JaguarVP) As I look at the Stock CMGI, I see no reason to own it right now. It is in a BEARISH Trend and the next support is at $1.25ish.
I never buy a stock JUST BEFORE EARNINGS. At that point you are flipping a coin on what the Big Guys will do with it.
Also look at the Market Direction, it is hard to be long in a Market that is correcting and headed DOWN.
IMHO
I bought because there was 95% chance for first good earnings (Modus Media acquisition + 1B revenue).. So it was good plan IMHO,I could not except this "January effect".. Hmm..
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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QUOTE (Roarke555) Do you have any idea, why CMGI falling down like rock ? I know,that TA is not so great like before a few days/weeks , but nothing changed about fundemantals.. So why CMGI loosing everything what gained after first good report ?
Thanks
Roarke
Roarke a stock that basically doubles in price in 2 or 3 days requires a massive invasion of institutional buying. The reason why they pick this stock or any other I do not know. Their objective is to make money. It is reasonable to expect some correction on a run of that caliber as GMCI had at the beginning of DEC. Then the selling comes. Institutions are very sneaky when it comes to selling. They lure you into a stock by showing you their power, but when time comes to get out the sneak out of the back door quietly. If you don't pay attention you pay a price. If you do not want to watch the tick as well as level II then next time set your stop loss and forget about it.
There is nothing wrong with the stock. It reflects market conditions as well as what i told you before. If you are in for the long term then you may be OK. If not take your losses and move on. The stock will be there if you decide you want to owe it at a later time when it may look more appealing.
Good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
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QUOTE (JaguarVP) As I look at the Stock CMGI, I see no reason to own it right now. It is in a BEARISH Trend and the next support is at $1.25ish.
I never buy a stock JUST BEFORE EARNINGS. At that point you are flipping a coin on what the Big Guys will do with it.
Also look at the Market Direction, it is hard to be long in a Market that is correcting and headed DOWN.
IMHO
I think the first support would be 1.55-1.65, but I agree with the downtrend.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/6/2005
Posts: 2
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I just signed on to tc2000 about 30days ago and based on the viedo made my first purchase cmgi @2.45 just wondering does tc2000 stand for -2000 on your first trade??
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/1/2004
Posts: 4,308
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I don't know for sure. But since we're getting ready to release TeleChart2005, perhaps it was a reference to the year 2000.
- Doug
Teaching Online!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/17/2004
Posts: 43
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QUOTE (emmettcrocker) I just signed on to tc2000 about 30days ago and based on the viedo made my first purchase cmgi @2.45 just wondering does tc2000 stand for -2000 on your first trade??
Wow emmettcrocker, that statement begs for lot's of comment that I don't have time to generate - I have not watched the video but have looked at the Worden note and I would make several quick observations:
1) the note says CMGI is a "great long-term buy candidate" - the chart suggests to me that is still true, I wouldn't buy it though until I saw it acting with strength, if you bought it at 2.45 after the note then you did not buy it when it was showing strength.
2) a long-term buy does not mean "buy it here and you'll immediately see it go up" it means it has a chart showing strength over a significant time period with good risk control points (in this case the support at 2.10 and then 1.20)
3) your quote sounds like you're pretty new to this - if so you have NO business buying stocks at $2.45/sh. Trading and technical analysis take time to learn and you'll be MUCH better off buying quality stocks at >$10/share for many reasons that I don't have time to elucidate.
4) there are any number of services you can buy that provide trade recommendations. You can pay $595/yr (seems to be the preffered price for some reason) and have access to lots of trade recommendations with provided instructions on buy points, loss cuts etc. (google Gorilla, Changewave, Bigtrends for examples) You should buy those services if you're looking for someone to tell you what to buy and when. I've found them to be quite disappointing when compared to their marketing but at least then you can complain about your results with the comforting knowledge that you were using the service as intended when you threw your money away.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/2/2005
Posts: 7
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Thank you very much for reply..
Happy trading..
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2004
Posts: 1
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QUOTE (emmettcrocker) I just signed on to tc2000 about 30days ago and based on the viedo made my first purchase cmgi @2.45 just wondering does tc2000 stand for -2000 on your first trade??
Emmttcrocker, I too bought cmgi, but I am in it for the very long haul, I heard from Peter "very long term". I look at it as building the right side of a cup, and will keep an eye on it's sales. I have been with TC2000 for about 8 months now, and just getting comfortable with all that this software can do. Craig and Doug's videos on this web site have helped me greatly, setting up scans, pcfs, and watchlists, ect,ect. I have made some good trades and bad, as any of us learning on the way. Trial and error brother, trial and error.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 35
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I'm in too, in a tax deferred account for hopefully distant desires or needs. I read Peter's comments to mean "two or more years" -- maybe "three or more years." This isn't a trading position. I'm not sure that there are many good long trading positions in this market.
A couple of suggetions that you might consider before your next foray in this direction. First, don't jump in, taking a full position in one big buy. Volatile stuff like this can move a long way up or down on each swing. Look at the behavior of this particular equity for a good chunk of time -- get a feel for how much and how quickly it moves up, and especially how much and how quickly it moves down. Based upon what you see in its prior behavior, estimate the size and likelihood of further gains from where it is when you're looking at it, and the likelihood, size and speed of a correction. Based on that, draw up a Plan to manage this long term position. What event should cause you to take your first step in? How big should that step be? If the water's cold, what should cause you to get your foot out? If the water's fine, what event should take your next step in? What should cause you to run for the beach? At what point do you reach a full position -- you're swimming? What should put you back on the beach? When you get to the beach, how much of your trading capital do you PLAN to still have? Even if the water is fine, when should you plan to stop swimming? Lunch? Will you go swimming again during or immediately after eating?
Second, do some data sheet work. This may end up happening before you answer many of the questions above, because you should feel the need for insight before you can make thoughtful choices. I've done 16 of these on low beta stocks like GDT and high beta stuff like SIRI and ARBA. You'll learn a lot just by going through this process for anything that you think you might take a position in. Here's my drill:
1. Download daily Open High Low Close data for your potential date. [Remember, you're dating, not getting married. You're not signing up for the "or worse" part unless you're planning on going down with the next Entron, WorldCom or Tyco.] You want enough time that you see a meaningful range of ups and downs in the context of market experience. I went back to September, 2002 as my starting point -- this catches the broad recovery from the bear market bottom. Sort these ascending by date.
2. Add two columns -- Hi (aka cumulative high) and % Change from prior day. You need a formula to do the high: If today's close > yesterday's cumulative high, use today's close as the new high. Otherwise, copy yesterday's cumulative high.
3. Add another column -- Below Hi %. This is Today's Close / Today's Cumulative Hi - 1, displayed as a percent. I format these showing x.x% with negative in red.
4. Propogate those down through all of the dates.
5. Now look at what you have. Looking down the % Change column, what is a big move up or down for this stock? 4%? 17%? Highlight notable moves up and down. Then go down the Below Hi % column. This emphasizes the magnitude of pullbacks. If you don't see a lot of double digit red numbers, you're doing something wrong or you have found the stock of a lifetime. Those numbers will probably convince you that you need some kind of loss cut strategy for this stock.
6. Add pairs of columns for each loss cut level that you would like to evaluate. I started out with 8% (IBD's absolute worst case limit), 10%, 11%, 12% and 13%. These are really easy. If the loss cut % is in the column's bottom heading line (say, row 3), then the loss cut for this cell is Today's Cumulative Hi * (1 - % in row 3). The right hand of the column pair is an IF that tests Today's Close < the Stop just calculated in the cell to the left. If less is true, display "Sell", otherwise display a blank. Propogate that for all of your history. Now look at that. Do you see any patterns that would shake you out of the position? How loose does the loss cut need to be to avoid most of these whipsaws? Remember that this means that you are giving up that much of your ultimate trading capital as the cost of staying in the trade longer.
7. Pick a loss cut percentage that you will tentatively live with for this position. For the rest of this iteration of the exercise, you can'[t change that number.
8. Make a copy of the worksheet so far. Start at the top (e.g., 3Sep2002). What is the price that is your loss cut percentage ABOVE the closing price on 3Sep? Note that number. Add another column for the Reset Buy Point. Put that number in the cell on the 3Sep row.
9. Go to the next day. If the price closed lower, calculate a new lower buy point based on the lower closing price. Repeat this until the closing price is ABOVE your tentative Buy Point. Chances are, this is a new Hi. I marked my Closing Prices for buys in bold green, and my sells in bold red, so that I could easily find them again during review. Use this process to trade all the way through the exercise period. For this simple exercise, assume that all of your trading capital goes in a single buy, and comes out in a single sell for each trade. After each sell, you must reset a Buy Point using the same strategy you used to set the first one. Set a Buy Point. Buy. Hold. Get stopped out. Reset the Buy Point. Keep doing this until you run out of market history. Another column right of the Reset Buy Point gave me a place to record the percentage gain or loss on the individual trade. It's easy to add another column to the right to turn that into a cumulative update of sample trading capital.
10. Chances are, if you always bought after the first close above your Buy Point, results didn't turn out well. What happens if you buy at the close of the NEXT trading day (row)? If you run through the market data, faithfully executing this buy and sell discipline, what do you see as a pattern of trading results for this strategy on this stock with this market history?
11. Is buying the first day after a buy signal too quick? Try the example again looking for two consecutive closes above your buy point. Is the loss cut too quick? Try two consecutive closes below your sell point. If that looks too loose, try three closes above. Does an asymmetrical approach work better -- more days to confirm before getting in than to get out? Does more than the next day on a Loss Cut target FOR THIS STOCK REALLY add to returns? Or does it just add complexity and anxiety?
Note that we have focused on price here -- price alone. That is the most important indicator. In this exercise, avoiding the use of other indicators (MS, TSV, BOP, MACD, OBV, et. al.) clarifies what you are trying to learn about the character of a stock at the onset. After you have a feel for the way that price acts over time, try other indicators to see which ones are relevant to predicting or confirming price behavior FOR THIS PARTICULAR STOCK and which are not. If an indicator doesn't work for a particular stock, ignore it. But consider that some stocks change character and behavior as their price (and market cap) move up or down into different ranges. You may need to change indicators as a stock moves from range to range.
In a broadly uptrending market, did an evenly balanced strategy of delay after a price-based buy or sell trigger increase or decrease your trade capital for this stock? Should you adjust the trade management strategy to improve the likelihood of better results, or should you look for a different trade target? You can easily test a number of approaches to see how sensitive the results could have been to the choices that you might have made. You can also consider placing a trading floor under some stocks (or all stocks) because the pattern of price movement is too unpredictable and rapid to for you to manage in your trading circumstances.
Now look at the part of the exercise trade history for 2004. When would you have gotten in? Would you have been shaken out? Would you have gotten back in? Would you still have been in at year end? What does 2005 look like?
You need patience and discipline to identify and wait for places to get in, where the risks to your trading capital are reduced. For longer term positions, you need to manage the building of a position, not just of a single trade. To survive, you have to learn that anything can go against you. I'll bet that any of the choice sets that you picked for this exercise went against you most of the time in the last 28 months.
If you think that it's just CMGI, try SIRI with a buy in August, 2004. That's another low price, very volatile issue that could have made you and lost you a lot of trading capital in just the last six months.
When you look at low priced stocks like CMGI and SIRI, consider the change of character that occurs as they move under $2, then under $1, then back above $1, then back above $2, then above $3. How does the change in price affect the proportion of institutional investors to individual investors? Did something attract the attention of hedge funds -- either coming in long or going short? You may want to run some scans to see how under $5 stocks last September have done in January as compared to under $10 stocks, under $20 stocks, $20-50 stocks, and over $50 stocks. Apple is a good example of an over $20 stock that more than tripled in 2004.
Finally, consider beta and leverage. I think of beta as a kind of leverage on the rate of returns. Margin is another kind of leverage. Leverage can work for you or against you. Five months of gains from the lows of 2004 were wiped out in three weeks in January, 2005. If you ever thought about trading high beta stocks on margin to leverage your returns, the exercise that I described here should be a wake up call. You can easily see the impact by adding a few more columns to your exercise spreadsheet. Here's how to do that:
Put an "account cash balance" in the heading of a new column -- like you did for the loss cut columns. Put a number in that cell to represent the trading capital that you are tentatively willing to risk on this position. Next to that, put the "margin equity rate" that your broker requires for the stock that you're considering. [Yes, these are different for different stocks, and yes, brokers can and do change the rates without telling you, and yes, brokers can and do change the rates both down and up. Of course, rates tend to go up when prices are going down.....] On the rows where you identified a buy event, reference the buy price in a formula. To keep it simple for this example, ignore margin interest as an expense, but this is real and it's not trivial. Let's also assume a Margin Call Loss Cut Level of 8%. Your loss cut price is 8% below your proposed purchase price. [Actual results may vary with market conditions and trading habits.] Your buying power at the loss cut level = [Account Cash Balance / Margin Equity Rate * ( 1 - Margin Call Loss Cut Level %)]. Examples:
$20,000 Account Cash Balance, 8% Margin Call Loss Cut Level
100% Margin Equity Rate for a $5.00 price = 3680 shares for $18,400 of buying power
60% Margin Equity Rate for a 10.00 price = 3066 shares for $30,667 of buying power
50% Margin Equity Rate for a 15.00 price = 1333 shares for $36,800 of buying power
40% Margin Equity Rate for a 20.00 price = 2300 shares for $46,000 of buying power
30% margin Equity Rate for a 40.00 price = 500 shares for $61,333 of buying power
As the price falls, the higher margin rates that you could have applied in 2004 really bite now. Compare CMGI at 100% (no leverage) to ARBA at 60%, to ASPT at 50%, to A (Agilent) at 40%, to CREE at 30%.
My suggestion: until you have a track record of money making trades, and have developed a process to respond to events within one market day, minimize your use of low priced stocks to leverage returns and completely avoid margin. Patience is a hard thing to learn, but it is essential. You must be patient while you learn, and apply lower risk approaches to the limited trading which you allow yourself. It's slower and harder to replace trading capital lost than it is to lose it. Five months of market-wide gains were wiped out in just three weeks, with the worst damage in the first and third weeks of January. If it takes you as long to get out as it took you to get in, then you are programmed to lose trading capital. You must be able to get out ten times faster than you got in. How much time does it take you from the time that an event occurs until you can appropriately act upon it? If it's more than one market day, you should strongly consider automating your sell decisions with Stop Loss orders. If you're making money with an upward moving price, great -- move the stop loss price up to track your gains. If the market takes you out, so be it -- you planned where your trading capital floor would be no matter what. In a declining market, cash isn't a bad place to be, however you get there.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 13
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Wow this has to be the longest post I have ever seen.
This is a lesson to all. Do your homework, NEVER BUY because someone suggests you do. I have to laugh at buying a stock for the LONG TERM, is that because the stock is going the wrong way?
I live and eat the P&F Charts and the TC2000, it is so clear where support, resistance and the trend is. I would not enter this stock until to broke $2.80 and then it may only go to $3.00.
IMHO this is a DOG!
If I were to have traded it, I would have entered on 12/3/2004 @ $1.75 and sold on 12/8/2004 @ $2.80. KNow how I got this, Learn P&F. It jumps out at you and says "BUY ME!"
Before you blast me, I have been trading for 10 years and full time the last 5 and making a living at it.
Look at the stocks and only get into them when they say too, Anyone can buy it and hold on to it for 5 years HOPING to make cents. I look for the one that make Dollars.
Learn how to trade!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Jaguar you must be proud of yourself, by making someone feel worse than they already feel. What you are saying is not the lesson to be learned here. Just because you buy a stock which chart tells you is a great candidate doesn't mean that the stock is going to go one way or another. No stock that I know gives you any guarantees. You can implement all the theories and systems that you want and at the end the result is the same. The trade has 50/50 probabilities.
I have implemented hundreds of systems, and theories, and the like to conclude this. Now I agree with you that holding a stock for pennies is the wrong way to do it. You must also understand that many people hold them for years and they loose dollars. Others make dollars and others come out even. Traders like you and I make dollars some days, pennies others as well as the opposite.
If you are saying you never took any loses you must be dreaming or lying. And the only thing that this people did wrong was not to set a stop loss in their investment or trade. That is all you can control when things go wrong. Also in reply to your comment that the stock is a dog. It may be at this point, but would you have said the same the day it brokeout? Just so you know, I am not riding this stock. I never jump on it, for whatever reasons I found at the time, but for those who are riding the stock I wish them luck and I am sympathetic with their situation, we have all been there. I would just advice them to implement their stop loss next time with more tenacity.
Now since you claim to be such a great trader, I would love to chat with you and review your trading strategies as well as mine if you like. I am always open to learning. I like to learn about your system that makes dollars. That is what we all are here for.
I am sure if it makes dollars it also loses dollars, but if I am missing something please lets review the system.
QUOTE (JaguarVP) Wow this has to be the longest post I have ever seen.
This is a lesson to all. Do your homework, NEVER BUY because someone suggests you do. I have to laugh at buying a stock for the LONG TERM, is that because the stock is going the wrong way?
I live and eat the P&F Charts and the TC2000, it is so clear where support, resistance and the trend is. I would not enter this stock until to broke $2.80 and then it may only go to $3.00.
IMHO this is a DOG!
If I were to have traded it, I would have entered on 12/3/2004 @ $1.75 and sold on 12/8/2004 @ $2.80. KNow how I got this, Learn P&F. It jumps out at you and says "BUY ME!"
Before you blast me, I have been trading for 10 years and full time the last 5 and making a living at it.
Look at the stocks and only get into them when they say too, Anyone can buy it and hold on to it for 5 years HOPING to make cents. I look for the one that make Dollars.
Learn how to trade!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 13
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The point that I was making that too many people trade and not know what they are doing. I have trained people to Day Trade for three years and am willing too say 95% of the people should not be trading. Many of the people that I have taught are also now trading for a living. Trading is a business and you have to put the time in to learn and invest in the tools to get there.
I would like to know why they bought this stock, is it because they thought someone said it was going to the moon. Moreover, I disagree with you saying that the only thing they did wrong was not using a stop loss, the problem is they went into the stock blindly and did not have a plan for a profit exit or a loss exit.
I did not say that all my trades are profitable, but I did say that I make a nice living at trading (thus the name Jaguar Vanden Plas)and I know what to do if they don’t go my way. I do not believe a trade is a 50/50 wild guess, but I will say that over the last three years that I had more winners then losers.
I also trade for a number of people.
Trading is the only business that you can read one book over the weekend, open up an account and then start trading on a Monday.
I wonder if Doctors do that.
I have nothing to prove to anyone here, all I am saying it amazes me how people can throw money into a market and not know why.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Jaguar I am sorry to disagree with you. People have all kind of reasons to put money in the market, whether they are informed or not is not the issue, that is what makes the market - chaos. I am happy to hear that you try to help people by training them to trade, but I personally don't think that trading can be taught. Trading goes with your personality and state of mind and since everyone has a different personality one single method doesn't work. Doctors all study the same body and same organs. I agree with you that trading without the proper experience is doomed to disaster, but in this profession you learn from your disasters and that is the price of tuition.
Do you have any specific data or reason why CMGI could have not gone to the moon (any other than resistant at 3.29, and lower volume in the 2nd breakout).
I also agree with you that trading takes time and money, but most important of all it takes a state of mind. In my view trading becomes more of an art than a repetitive task that you can master. But like we all have seem in history - artists have lows and highs, some may peak and then downward thereafter.
Traders are the same, you cannot take the human input out of the equation.
Remember trading is a state of mind if you ever loose that for any reason, you will loose your abilities.
I pray everynight to keep my state of mind, and my life as it is until I can quit.
Please notice that my comments are not meant to be either depreciative or derrogative to your input.
I appreciate all kind of inputs, but do not agree with them all the time.
Happy trading Jag!
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Registered User
Joined: 1/2/2005
Posts: 7
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Ugh.. I dont think, that everybody here are traders..
Im buying stocks for 6 months+ (after 6months, I dont pay 30%tax), so Im using FA or looking for some good news, turnover,etc.. Also, Im learning TA and TC2000 because want be better in timming(buy and sell,)..
CMGI is great example for good profit (I know, that there are some cons too).. I bought CMGI at 1.55, added at 2.20, 2.19 and waiting for cash to buy more on this dip.. I could sell at 90% profit, and Im almost filled order,but I believe that CMGI can go higher... If next earnings will be good, CMGI will break resistance at 3.2+, attract more ppl and then I'll sell.. easy plan :)
Btw, I blame daytrayders for pushing this stock down, if you look at intraday charts, they are selling last hour and drop price down... Because ppl heave fear to buy some shares now, they are manipulating with this stock now... When Nasdaq will recover, CMGI will be back on track and reach my target :)
Happy day and good luck
P.S I dont look at cents or dollars, im looking at percents.. :)
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Registered User
Joined: 11/30/2004
Posts: 4
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Would anyone care to comment on the BOP for this stock?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/2/2005
Posts: 7
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QUOTE (manlabor) Would anyone care to comment on the BOP for this stock?
You mean, why BOP was at 100 for a few weeks ? I dont believe that BOP works for this stock.. Maybe some trainer could comment this ?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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QUOTE (manlabor) Would anyone care to comment on the BOP for this stock?
I haven't seen any considerable distribution in over a yr, in fact close to none. Accumulation has been predominant and strong as of late (few months), and just a couple of days ago it got into neutral mode. Just remember that very well tomorrow could be the day heavy distribution starts.
Good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2005
Posts: 17
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Was in CMGI back in the Day, when it was selling off internet Wonder babies left and right. I don't see any instant winners in its current portfolio. It might be a place for some mad money . Back up to 3 in the fall ? If you like Venture capital look at TINY
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 1
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CMGI appears to be finding a little support near the 400 DMA.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 382
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CMGI I really love reading all the responds on CMGI..I was this wonder if anyone like too meet like in paltalk about whats going down that day on the charts or whats go up that day....we could set up a lock room and can talk back in forth on it ..If a few peole like too do that I will set up the room its free .On CMGI I listen too the video and I watch it for a few days and saw it coming down so I pick up some at 1.96 .I thought it would go too 2.05 and I would sell it but it whent down.Been try too read the charts on it.Its not telling me much at all.but i do belive in CMGI so i could hold this one and I think CMGI well show more of a cash flow this quarter. I well have too make up my mind if I'm going too hold it or take a small loss. thanks for all the people shareing their idles.
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Registered User
Joined: 11/22/2004
Posts: 5
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For all you nervous cmgi watchers....relax....the stock has formed a new support level at 1.80 after enduring a very bearish corrective market. The long term indicators are still bullish. The short term stoch has just turned which indicates a near term entrance point. The macd as yet to turn but that means that the stock has a little more work to do at these levels before making another upward move. Patience is a virtue...
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Administration
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 31
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I have read through this entire thread and I would like to thank everyone here for their contributions to this spirited discussion.
Yesterday evening I posted a follow-up comment on CMGI in a Worden Note. For those of you who monitor this forum, but may not be a TCNet or TC2000 customer, here is a reprint of my note.
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January 31, 2005 5:18 PM ET
When I featured buy candidate, CMGI almost exactly one month ago I did not expect the stock to be on the cusp of a rather serious price correction. Nor did I anticipate the extent to which the stock would pull back.
Over the past week, CMGI’s stock price has managed to stabilize and even show subtle signs of renewed strength. While price did violate its 50-day (exponential) moving average earlier this month, the 200-day (exponential) moving average has managed to stem the recent decline and provide (to this point anyway) some short-term support.
There are some encouraging signs which suggest the correction may have run its course. In addition to price holding above its 200-day moving average, TSV 67 on my attached chart is successfully holding at the zero-line. TSV is hinting toward a possible upturn, but I would feel better if the indicator moved back above its 20-day (exponential) moving average. MoneyStream is doing fairly well holding its ground in the face of the recent pullback, but I would ideally like to see it back above its own 22-day (simple) moving average. In fact, I cannot deem any rally attempt from here genuine unless MoneyStream moves decisively back above its moving average in the process. (TC2000 and TCNet customers should refer to today’s Worden Note on CMGI in order to view my attached chart.)
I would also like to mention that even though I view CMGI’s trading volume over the past couple of days as rather lackluster, I do like the way both TSV and MoneyStream are behaving on some of the intra-day charts -- specifically, the 10-minute, the 15-minute and the 30-minute time frames.
The bottom line is I still very much like CMGI’s longer term potential and I do see possible signs of a rally attempt coming from around current levels, but until I see positive confirmation from my indicators (please see my comments above) I will remain somewhat cautious in here. -Peter Worden
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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I saw this thread from the distant past and thought it touched on some good points on trading - so in case anyone is interested, a good read.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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JC, this is a very interesting thread. Thanks for digging it up. I also love to pour over the older threads. Some that have been posting here for a long time, it is fun to watch them change their styles or opinions over the coarse of time.
JaguarVP sounds like a very interesting fellow and he made some very good points (like the fact that this stock was a dog back then).
The stock looks like it might have potential now though. It appears to be using the 200 day sma for support. might be worth keeping an eye on...
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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Tommy, I agree with your thoughts. Makes me wonder if JaguarVP is still using telechart or just not posting anymore?
As time permits I was thinking of going back and looking for some of the best threads and than making a 'hall of fame' thread single post with links to the 10 or 15 best ones I can find.
That is something the Worden people might want to do as well - maybe a way to vote on the best threads and than collect them in one place for the benefit of all the newer traders.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=19591
JC here is a link to a good one. It has links within it also to some better ones check it out
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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That is a good thread - interesting that the concern was about the number of posts devoted to "penny stocks". I haven't really noticed so many of those lately.
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