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Registered User
Joined: 12/27/2005
Posts: 83
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Hi,
Funds typically are longer term in nature than stocks and I think the same technical indicators apply for determining if entry/exit criteria have been met. A good portion of my retirement money is tied up in funds and mutual funds are the only investment strategy my company permits. So I'm trying to improve on the return as well as picking mutual funds.
I've found a lot of information on stocks and tech criteria. I haven't found much on mutual funds.
Does anyone have a strategies / criteria that they have found successful for working with mutual funds? Is there a routine you'd like to share for monitoring?
What I do now is track them by looking at daily and weekly bars and drawing trend lines. I guess I'll have to manually back test them on some criteria and see what works best.
Any suggestions would be helpful.
Thanks
Craig
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Obviously the trading restrictions of your IRA plays an important
part of the equation. (availability of funds and the frequency you are
allowed to trade them)
Also if you are from the buy/hold school of thought or intend to move
to bonds/cash as risks increase.
I have found long-term moving averages, momentum, and dynamic asset
allocation to be useful. ( I should add that I trade sector mutual funds along with
stocks. Sectors allow you to better exploit the possibilities. )
Realize that these are all "known" systems. They have at their core
trying to steer money where it is most effective. Do not use any
lengths I've suggested here as gospel. See what works for you.
(most of the lengths I've suggested were "recommended" for
the system)
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Several areas to look into:
1) Long-term moving averages.
(stay with a fund as long as it is above a 28 week to 39 week
moving average)
I also use versions with 100 day moving averages.
2)Momentum: Every six months rank funds by percent change.
Allocate 57.2% of capital to the top 2 funds. Allocate the rest
(42.8%) to the next 3 funds.
I also use versions with 100 day momentum and 250 day
momentum.
3) Dynamic asset allocation: Track the percent return spread
between 2 asset classes. (asset 1 return - asset 2 return)
with some exponential smoothing. ( 45 days)
Things like Stocks vs.Bonds, Stocks vs. Gold, Domestic vs. Foreign,
Large cap vs. Small cap., and so on.
(also relative strength can be used)
(One side benefit of this analysis. It can be used to determine which
stocks or ETF's to focus on)
One last thing I would add, because of IRA imposed trading restrictions.
(with our regular accounts we can quickly go to cash) I would keep an
eye on the long-term picture. (for example: long-term momentum
(by long term I mean monthly) and valuations of the SP-500.
This type of analysis had me in bonds during the 2000-2002 decline.
As far at tracking. I have the Telechart Mutual funds program. I typically
update over the week-end. Run my sorts and place any order
changes necessary for Monday morning. I typically don't watch
fund data during the week. (unless something unusual happens)
Also you may be interested in this:
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=5531
http://www.worden.com/content/rsma.pdf
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 12/27/2005
Posts: 83
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Diceman. Thanks for the tips. I'll look into it now. I have a couple of funds that aren't doing as well as I would think they would do. I'll see if the RSMA strategy suggests anything.
I love using Worden. The support and suggestions are great!
Thanks again,
Craig Stephens 
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Registered User
Joined: 4/21/2005
Posts: 39
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QUOTE (diceman) I have the Telechart Mutual funds program. I typically
update over the week-end. Run my sorts and place any order
changes necessary for Monday morning.
Diceman,
How is "Telechart Mutual funds program" different from Telechart2007?
-- Sounds like something I haven't used.
I'm interested in eyeballing Mutual Fund charts.
Thanks in advance for your reply.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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The "Funds" program is a second program. (separate from
Telechart) Its data base instead of having stock symbols
has mutual fund symbols. Its "set-up" and "style" are the
same as Telechart. (for the most part) You can create
scans, watchlists, PCF's, add indicators and so on.
Thanks
diceman
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