Registered User
Joined: 11/5/2005
Posts: 180
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Watching NVAX action today I started thinking about gaps and the theory how they get filled so I sold NVAX, not a bad profit for two days, not the best but none the less not a loss.
So, if its true that gaps get filled I'm thinking NVAX will move to 4.20 before advancing again. If this is the case it will still be above the support line of 4.08.
So, time to see if gaps and the theory that they get filled is true, or at least in this particular case.
I'm game for making another play on NVAX at a lower price with the option of another breakout. FYI - I don't consider todays action a failed breakout because volume is low. Just my thoughts.
Others thoughts on this?
tobydad especially look forward to picking your brain, you've made some great calls on these boards, I appreciate your input.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/3/2005
Posts: 13
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What about WUS, its heading to the bottom of a channel but how do you tell if it is going to bounce off and head up again?
thanks
ARC
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Registered User
Joined: 6/3/2005
Posts: 13
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If you were going to buy NVAX again what price would you buy at?
arc
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Registered User
Joined: 11/5/2005
Posts: 180
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Looks like the gap filled and NVAX is only down .05 now.
Tomorrow will be an interesting day for NVAX and I'll be watching all day...we'll see.
I think its healthy NVAX filled the gap on light volume.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Hi rl;
I'm far from any kind of expert but what I see of NVAX doesn't bother me at all. By my rules, I would've been stopped out today but I'd have a buy stop right back at $.01 above today's high. I'm guessing that wouldn't get filled and I'd move the buy stop down to $.01 above what will be tomorrow's high. I'm guessing that high will be lower than today's high. As long as the lows don't seriously violate the supporting trendline, I'd follow the successively lower highs down until it got me in. But I wouldn't want to see lows much below today's of 4.21 or so.
Actually looking at a 1-yr picture, it sort of looks like an inverted head and shoulders to me (kinda lopsided, but still...) I'm sorry I got longwinded. I hope this helps in some way.
The markets look like they want to go down a bit more; be careful.
God's best blessings to you.
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Registered User
Joined: 11/5/2005
Posts: 180
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tobydad I'm not confident with NVAX anymore, I like the idea the gap filled but I don't like how close NVAX is moving towards the support line without advancing. Maybe because I've seen too many stocks move through the support line and slowly drift down. I also thought the pop the other day was the beginning of a run but since it stalled my confidence level dropped some.
OBV looks flat-lined although TSV and MS look good. I like the move it made the other day but I'm glad to be out of it, even if it pops I have to follow my rules and will have to sit this one out unless something changes in the next couple days. Will watch closely again tomorrow.
arc, how do you see NVAX playing out?
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Registered User
Joined: 6/3/2005
Posts: 13
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I don't understand all of the indicators but look at moving averages, trend lines and MACD, if I am reading it right , it has flatten, and the volume seems to have also leveled. I went with ONT two days ago and am hoping that the positive news yesterday evening will sent it up today. If so I will get out at .98 and begin looking for the next buy. I am new,( a social worker with no history in finance) have limited $$ to start and am looking to slowly build with taking modest returns
ARC
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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rl;
I can see your point. Most of the indicators are not moving with any great vigor in the right direction. But could that just be a head fake? Nothing that I watch has crossed into scary territory at this point. (Not exhilarating, mind you; but not scary.)
From my point of view, NVAX is acting perfectly (at least for now). While we certainly don't want to be in it passing down thru the trend line, it hasn't done that yet (although I haven't checked the pre-market action). Yesterday's price action could be construed as a turnaround day after the big move down. And yesterday's low was the same as the day's before. If it can hold that low (or close to it) one more time I think you might be good. If it could hit the same low one more time you should be riding right on the trend line.
I don't mean to sound like a broken record but that's why I like the buy stop above the previous day's high. BigBlock caught me on NGEN the other day with one I had to get stopped out on using the buy stop method but most of the time it works quite well to get me in when I should and keep me out when I shouldn't. And besides, my choice to use the buy stop above the previous high was not a great decision on that one anyway...I deserved what I got.
Of course, market action is probably going to be among the biggest factors.
Sorry, long winded again.
All the best.
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Registered User
Joined: 11/5/2005
Posts: 180
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Support moved up from 4.03 to 4.12 and NVAX sits at 4.22, looks to me like NVAX will slowly drift through the support line, they will come together with the price next week so something has to happen.
Breakout?
Sideways and slowly down, what I call the slow drip?
Or sell off?
I can't help but believe the breakout attempt on 10/31/06 although nice for a short profit was a failed breakout which if is the case NVAX will see some selling.
We'll see.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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C'mon NVAX, follow through now.
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Registered User
Joined: 11/5/2005
Posts: 180
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To me it looks like NVAX is expected have a good earnings call tomorrow morning (7am).
Question is do you play it safe and sell today before the day is over or ride it out through the earnings call?
Another .20 isn't bad?
Interested to hear others thoughts on this.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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So rl, did you stay in?
I believe, if NVAX gets past today's high, it should make a very nice move up.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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GNBT sympathy move?
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Registered User
Joined: 11/5/2005
Posts: 180
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Hey tobydad, yes I'm back in, here's my post from the NVAX VICL post I wrote on November 9th:
(Beginning of quote): tobydad I think today may have filled the gap on 11/08. 11/07 high 4.60 and todays low is 4.62.
I bought in again on 11/07 at 4.46, good luck with this one. I'm still up from my purchase on 11/01 and from yeserday so I'm OK but I moved my stop losses way up for protection.
I think today is good for NVAX, although volume is above its 50DMA its not higher than the previous large accumualation days, not even close which to me is a good sign. (End of quote)
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Registered User
Joined: 11/5/2005
Posts: 180
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tobydad what do you mean when you say GNBT sympathy move?
I show resistance at 2.20, yesterdays close. I think if GNBT breaks 2.20 on decent volume today we can expect a nice run.
Just my thoughts. Its been a nice run since the breakout (and way before actually).
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Registered User
Joined: 11/5/2005
Posts: 180
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NVAX showing strong support today, nice recovery in my opinion. I think the breakout from the ascending triangle will last and the next resistance level is at 5.37.
Just my thoughts - any else care to give their analysis.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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rl; my comment about the GNBT sympathy move was just that the chart looked good for more upward action and I know they're in similar industries. GNBT doesn't quite have the market attraction they once did but sometimes you get the "rising market floats all boats" effect.
If NVAX had a really good report, I thought GNBT might fly with it. As it is I think GNBT has some potential.
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