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Some thoughts on this subject You may wish to Google "Frank Grossman" on this subject, he has several strategies. Also consder "QuantHead" and the "Simple GMR Rotation Model".
While you are on the QuantHead site, on the column to the right of the screen, go to "Spotlight-Varan"
On Varan, it s helpfull to use the ETF rather than the funds.
Note: Read the "Comments' because the authors will sometimes change things.......All of these are back-checkable.
Another avenue would be a method called Pair Switching, with MDY/TLT, etc. Now it is not foolproof, but with two assets to choose between, a 21 day Donchian Channel works about as well as anything else. I have used the 21day D-Channel with 21Day Percent True spikes for entry. Buy the one that spikes on the 21 day high. Then watch the other of the pair. Buy this second one when it spikes and sell the first. Sometimes they will both move in the same direction, but it's fun to backtest.
Your mileage my vary, but it seems to work better to use Donchian or to watch the lookback period each day, rather than once every 20 days or so. Although most will say to hold a month,(or whatever)
The shape of one mans opinion.....
The true day traders among us could think differently, but the problem is to find a method of trading that will give you a acceptable % profit and hold time frame. Many of the short-term hold strategies will give you a large win rate, but not a large % win rate. Unless you are heavily leveraged you cannot make it on less that 1% profit per trade and be plagued with the usual problems of poor fills, commissions, slippage, et.al.
A suggestion to you, if I may: Get several College Ruled Spiral Notebooks. To explore a strategy, go back about 10 years. Move forward one click at a time. Record entry price and exit price, according to your strategy. Record the days that you would have held the equity. From this you can determine :1. The win rate 2. the average Percent each trade made or lost 3. The number of days average trade takes. This is a close as possible to trading without losing actual money. You will find a favorite.
You will find that no single strategy will be the best to use in all situations. But if it doesn't get you out in the '08's and '09's look for something else. I don't really think, over the long run, there will be much difference in most indicators, regarding time frames. Be aware that on a partcular stock, weekly may be better that daily, on another, the opposite is true.
Check "Trading Naked" Stoch REI and Conservative MACD setup. Holding period is about what you like
Diceman: Good morning to you,Sir.
I see that you like multiple length stochastic.
Should you Google "Spuds Stochastic Thread Theory" you would find something that you may enjoy, from our Forex brothers.
Well put, David. Well put.
Some years ago, I shot competiton pistol. Not an easy sport, it took a lot of time in practice and study. Nothing was without importance, though some things were mor obvious than others, all parts were important.
I would have conversations with folks, say Golfers that would go something like: "Man, I just love GOLF! I'd do anything to be a better golfer, I just love that game, I want to get better, theresjustnothingiwould........" Then I would ask them."Do you hit a thousand balls a week?" Normally, then, you get a blank stare...."Weeelllllll, No!"
"Then don't come crying around about how much you want to improve"
If you want to be good at ANYTHING it takes:
1. Sacrifice in time and money. ( I think I had the only marriage that survived more than 10-15 matches a year)
2. Some level of natural ability, although Ed McGivern always claimed he had none whatsoever.
3. Attention to the details. There is no such thing as one that is not important.
4. You MUST study everything available on the subject and do a little innovative thinking on your own.
5. It does not hurt to be somewhat of a skeptic. Conventional wisdom is not always a fact and should at least be examined, if not outright tested.
6. Determination. Stick with the thing and keep plugging on .
7. Get emotion out of the picture. No matter what your string is, the next shot is the only one that counts.
8. You gotta BURN to do it. It is a passion and not a hobby and it must consume you for you to excell.