| DSBlake |
|
Gold User, Member, TeleChart
|
| Registered User |
|
|
|
|
| Unsure |
|
| Monday, January 10, 2005 |
| Sunday, April 2, 2017 7:06:28 PM |
8
[0.00% of all post / 0.00 posts per day] |
|
|
I bought the SQQQ's yesterday when the market hit the top of the DOW channel that i described (of course I waited for confirmation of a sell off) The market transversed the entire channel (dow down
200+ points before I decided to sell the SQQQ's an amazing $1.57 a share gain. Trades like that ( less than 1 hour our truly wonderful.. ) the volativity of this market is because of the huge camp of beliefs on either side (Bulls and Bears) are almost equal in a lot of polls... this I believe causes huge market swings.. topped with evidence that many mutuals are selling into rallies...
|
Well hope your right..but after trading for 35 years I don't see it... the summer doldrums coupled
with the fact that the DOW earnings are on the decline is a problem on the fundamental side. The
technicals don't look that good either. I've been a ragging BULL till this last drawdown where I see
the real support break away. Here's a couple points. Since July of 2010 the market has had great technicals, for one,
all higher lows and a rising OBV...also the current 6 week downdraft in points is
the largest since May of 2010. The small caps, had they not been slaughter, would of kept me bullish.
As for QE3, I cannot see where QE2 has convinced anyone that it was even a minor success. The housing market
(see recent schiller reports) is getting worse not better, this is a key fundamental
in that the building materials and transports are directly affected...
Now for a side note... This BULL market is getting mature (just on a historic time table) and as people
start buying for any reason, you know the end is near ( for this cycle) ...
A recent Etrade poll showed a large group of new bearish traders (actually that can be Bullish (weird)
I wish you well in your trading.. but looks like we have opposite view points,,, time will tell..
Dean
|
The following 6 weeks have formed a perfect downward consolidation channel. The Dow is now
within 50 points of the top of this channel and about 150 points from the 50- day MA. As we advance
we're doing it on contracting volume. There has not been a reversal formation yet and the MACD, Wilders RSI, OBV say we have a ways to go in the rally ..my take is that we will have trouble at the
50 day MA where we should be in an overbought condition. The bearish ring comes from the fact that
the QQQ's this last drawdown took out the march lows! The rally in the small caps is not I believe strong
nor is a confirmation of the Larger Caps rally that is proceeding,. The OBV and MACD are falling on the
QQQ's in this rally, there seems to be a much weaker rally going on in the small caps. I don't believe
the DOW can even take out the early May highs without the small caps and tech stocks. I believe a great
shorting opportunity exists in vehicles ETF's... like TZA, SDS, FAZ when this rally starts to fail... my guess 12,300
|
Believe it or not he has a point! I've been trading for 30 years and can never quite grasp the removal of equity from the shares (of the dividend) on the ex-div date? WHY? at that moment your total return is ZERO he is correct.. But the theory is that the stock 'lost' that payout to NEW traders so the stock is Market minus Div... on the Bid...soooooooo the other side says.. the stock didn't truly lose that % of value that the market forced out of it on ex-div day... DID we always do this??? I don't remember...
Dean
|
I agree with the H&S pattern.. Other things to note besides the falling volume on this rally. SPY came off a double bottom in early september (even gapped) then punched thru the 50da MA and the current divergence
from that average is warning #1, second a continuous falling of OBV, third the market is Overbought on many fronts... BUT.. the real test in my mind is the support at the neckline of the double bottom (113). This has to be in my trading experience THE TEST.. given the current Bullishness of the markets (here and abroad) I would likely use SPY 113 to determine my next move.. if we cut thru it like butter I would be short the market if we hold and start accumulation there I would be all over the Bull side.. This would be a big confirmation for the upside to me... Dean 
|
Looking at the REIT's I'm finding many in high RSI's with many in Cup and Handle formations.
Favorite is SPG (Simon Property Group). In the sector category this group has moved into the
top 10 after being severly depressed. SPG in high volume adv with light vol retracements! Broke
50 day MA and held on retracement. Closed into high of day on increasing volume. On the fundamental
front, looks even better. But many REIT's now look promising.
|
 Thanks so much this is IT!
|
I want to write a PCF to find the crossing of a pair of moving averages
like the 13 day MA and 50 day MA. Or the same for different periods.
I would like a boolean output like T/F or 1/0 thanks
|
|