Registered User
Joined: 1/10/2005
Posts: 8
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The following 6 weeks have formed a perfect downward consolidation channel. The Dow is now
within 50 points of the top of this channel and about 150 points from the 50- day MA. As we advance
we're doing it on contracting volume. There has not been a reversal formation yet and the MACD, Wilders RSI, OBV say we have a ways to go in the rally ..my take is that we will have trouble at the
50 day MA where we should be in an overbought condition. The bearish ring comes from the fact that
the QQQ's this last drawdown took out the march lows! The rally in the small caps is not I believe strong
nor is a confirmation of the Larger Caps rally that is proceeding,. The OBV and MACD are falling on the
QQQ's in this rally, there seems to be a much weaker rally going on in the small caps. I don't believe
the DOW can even take out the early May highs without the small caps and tech stocks. I believe a great
shorting opportunity exists in vehicles ETF's... like TZA, SDS, FAZ when this rally starts to fail... my guess 12,300
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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We need to get you on the email list. Didn't you hear? The Fed is going to announce QE3 in Jackson Hole in August (again). Watch the big traders start a rally about two weeks ahead of the meeting. That combined with Congress raising the debt ceiling and it is off to the Stratosphere. Take physical delivery of your metals on the pullbacks and double ETF's on the market rally  I'm actually excited...
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Registered User
Joined: 1/10/2005
Posts: 8
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Well hope your right..but after trading for 35 years I don't see it... the summer doldrums coupled
with the fact that the DOW earnings are on the decline is a problem on the fundamental side. The
technicals don't look that good either. I've been a ragging BULL till this last drawdown where I see
the real support break away. Here's a couple points. Since July of 2010 the market has had great technicals, for one,
all higher lows and a rising OBV...also the current 6 week downdraft in points is
the largest since May of 2010. The small caps, had they not been slaughter, would of kept me bullish.
As for QE3, I cannot see where QE2 has convinced anyone that it was even a minor success. The housing market
(see recent schiller reports) is getting worse not better, this is a key fundamental
in that the building materials and transports are directly affected...
Now for a side note... This BULL market is getting mature (just on a historic time table) and as people
start buying for any reason, you know the end is near ( for this cycle) ...
A recent Etrade poll showed a large group of new bearish traders (actually that can be Bullish (weird)
I wish you well in your trading.. but looks like we have opposite view points,,, time will tell..
Dean
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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DS: Keep posting that good experienced knowledge info.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
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QUOTE (thekubiaks) We need to get you on the email list. Didn't you hear? The Fed is going to announce QE3 in Jackson Hole in August (again). Watch the big traders start a rally about two weeks ahead of the meeting. That combined with Congress raising the debt ceiling and it is off to the Stratosphere. Take physical delivery of your metals on the pullbacks and double ETF's on the market rally I'm actually excited...
"The Magic Feds" lolo. They sure will need more trickory fuel to keep this thing floating. QE3 sounds just as good as anything else I can think of. Besides you have to keep the presses going so they don't get rusty. Print, print, print like there is no tomorrow.
I am so exited too.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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QUOTE (DSBlake)
Well hope your right..but after trading for 35 years I don't see it... the summer doldrums coupled
with the fact that the DOW earnings are on the decline is a problem on the fundamental side. The
technicals don't look that good either. I've been a ragging BULL till this last drawdown where I see
the real support break away. Here's a couple points. Since July of 2010 the market has had great technicals, for one,
all higher lows and a rising OBV...also the current 6 week downdraft in points is
the largest since May of 2010. The small caps, had they not been slaughter, would of kept me bullish.
As for QE3, I cannot see where QE2 has convinced anyone that it was even a minor success. The housing market
(see recent schiller reports) is getting worse not better, this is a key fundamental
in that the building materials and transports are directly affected...
Now for a side note... This BULL market is getting mature (just on a historic time table) and as people
start buying for any reason, you know the end is near ( for this cycle) ...
A recent Etrade poll showed a large group of new bearish traders (actually that can be Bullish (weird)
I wish you well in your trading.. but looks like we have opposite view points,,, time will tell..
Dean
I hope you're correct Dean.
I like cheap stocks.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 1/10/2005
Posts: 8
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I bought the SQQQ's yesterday when the market hit the top of the DOW channel that i described (of course I waited for confirmation of a sell off) The market transversed the entire channel (dow down
200+ points before I decided to sell the SQQQ's an amazing $1.57 a share gain. Trades like that ( less than 1 hour our truly wonderful.. ) the volativity of this market is because of the huge camp of beliefs on either side (Bulls and Bears) are almost equal in a lot of polls... this I believe causes huge market swings.. topped with evidence that many mutuals are selling into rallies...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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QUOTE (thekubiaks) We need to get you on the email list. Didn't you hear? The Fed is going to announce QE3 in Jackson Hole in August (again). Watch the big traders start a rally about two weeks ahead of the meeting. That combined with Congress raising the debt ceiling and it is off to the Stratosphere. Take physical delivery of your metals on the pullbacks and double ETF's on the market rally I'm actually excited...
Here comes QE3 :) I think I will change my middle name to Nostradamus
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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no, there is no qe3, qe2 just never ended. the fed is still buying 20bil in treasuries each month.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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QUOTE (thekubiaks) We need to get you on the email list. Didn't you hear? The Fed is going to announce QE3 in Jackson Hole in August (again). Watch the big traders start a rally about two weeks ahead of the meeting. That combined with Congress raising the debt ceiling and it is off to the Stratosphere. Take physical delivery of your metals on the pullbacks and double ETF's on the market rally I'm actually excited...
Time for some self congrats... I called this explosive rally quite a while back. I think I listed the date as August 1, (the day before the deadline of course, that was a no brainer, right along with the Congress Hollywood script) Enjoy the rally, it will only last for a day or two.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
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Hmm, doesn't look like a rally at this time. 
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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QUOTE (traderm30) Hmm, doesn't look like a rally at this time.
The market did gap up 180 at the open, I guess that was the "explosive rally". I thought it would go for at least a day, not a 5 minute rally ??? :(. The CNBS cheerleaders are pimping QE3 so I suspect we'll keep sliding until the Bernank launches the USS QE3 ship.
My market plays right now are FIRST buying Puts on FXF, GLD, and SLV and once I get a fill, I put in a market order for that amount of stock. When I get to Options expiration, I either liquidate the stock , sell the Puts, or reload... It's working for me :). Especially FXF
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (thekubiaks) QUOTE (traderm30) Hmm, doesn't look like a rally at this time. The market did gap up 180 at the open, I guess that was the "explosive rally". I thought it would go for at least a day, not a 5 minute rally ??? :(. The CNBS cheerleaders are pimping QE3 so I suspect we'll keep sliding until the Bernank launches the USS QE3 ship.My market plays right now are FIRST buying Puts on FXF, GLD, and SLV and once I get a fill, I put in a market order for that amount of stock. When I get to Options expiration, I either liquidate the stock , sell the Puts, or reload... It's working for me :). Especially FXF
lol. better start watching bloomberg.
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