| jim64546 |
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Gold User, Member, Platinum User, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Tuesday, July 26, 2005 |
| Tuesday, September 6, 2011 12:05:06 PM |
23
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Thanks Bruce,
I'll give it a shot.
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As much as I would love to see a Mac OSX native Telechart, I'd settle for TC on Linux on my Mac (via Parallels) if I could cut Windows out of it altogether. Does anybody here know how to cut Windows out of this game altogether?Thanks,Jim
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First, I really appreciate the fact that this question (and/or trading ethics in general) gets asked and debated here. Personally, I don't think daytrading at the retail level has much effect. Especially if one is a trend follower, then the trend is basically already established. In that case the effect might be similar to a few more snowflakes accumulated by a rolling-down-the-hill snowball. I believe the far more insidious influences include price manipulation via rumor mongering, naked short selling, computer-driven phantom bids & asks on a huge scale by hedge funds et al. Then there are the efforts to hide the trading effects of big money via "dark pools".
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QUOTE (Bruce_L) TeleChart was written using Visual Basic, so it is pretty tied to Windows at present. I think a rewrite to Adobe AIR incredibly unlikely. In any case, we do not normally discuss or comment on future features, services or products until they are actually released or officially announced. Not discussing future products is precisely the problem. For example, I keep getting the e-mails about FreeStockCharts.com, It sounds great. The YouTube post looks wonderful. I go to your site to look and it requires installing MS Silverlight to view. Given the screwiness of Microsoft products in general, I'm really reluctant to install Silverlight on my Mac. Having to run Windows in emulation (Parallels) is already irritating enough. If you guys had mentioned up front that you were planning this, I'm sure you would have gotten a lot of feedback to please develop it on something else more universal- Adobe's AIR/Flash or JAVA. By the time you've developed your project, you're already committed to a company that many of us had hoped to be finished with. It's puzzling to me that Worden is so joined at the hip with Microsoft.You guys do world-class work. I just wish you'd do it on a Mac. Or at least on something platform-agnostic.
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Anybody have any idea what's up with XTXI today (other than the price)? I can't find any extraordinary news. Thanks
Jim
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QUOTE (StockGuy) We have no plans to develop products for the Mac OS. The problem with this ever-rote answer is that you guys never explain why.
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You guys SERIOUSLY need to port TeleChart native to the Mac. Newest NPD data says that Macs now have a 66% market share in America of all PCs sold with prices over $1000. And they don't have access to Apple's internal sales data (Apple web sales & Apple brick & mortar stores). 66% of people paying over $1000 for a computer sounds like a market that you guys should going after. I would upgrade to Platinum if it were available native on the Mac. Your stubborn refusal to even discuss this is baffling.
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QUOTE (rmr1976) Jim,
The macro picture is simple:
1. Consumer spending is going to slow
2. Corporate spending isn't going to expand like everyone expects. None of this is good for AAPL's sales.
Any growth you talk about is likely priced into the stock. Plus, the chart looks terrible on the weekly. I'd favor the short side here.
Well, here it is 4 months later, AAPL has vaulted into the 90's (although consolidated over the last week to close today at 89.83) - this as compared to the 60's as of our last discussion. Despite the macro picture, AAPL keeps having blowout quarters (July, Oct, probably Jan as well). They're rapidly gaining market share in computers, outpacing PC makers (AAPL now has a market cap substantially bigger than Dell). They also have a great product pipleine that the entire planet is apparently salivating over and analysts are forecasting huge sales growth. As for corporate spending reductions, that could ironically work in Apple's favor. Companies are so bloody sick and tired of the Windows malware issues (Vista is already being hacked) that Mac sales to businesses are upswinging becuase of more system stability. In addition, their 1U servers and 3U RAIDs are getting rave reviews. And the server/client licensing is much lower cost. And finally, in terms of iPod/iTunes, they seem to be accelerating (especially internationally). The one serious shot anyone has had at making inroads against their music ecosystem was the recent launch of MS Zune. Two weeks (in the Christmas shopping season) after launch, Zune seems to be falling off a cliff. Nobody seems to like it or have anything good to say about it. The post-Thanksgiving analysis of Zune at a distant 2nd behind iPod turns out to have been done with incomplete numbers. This week it's fallen to 5th behind iPod. Even Ballmer said today that MS hopes to sell 1 million Zunes by June. Contrast that with 39 million iPods this year.
The point is that company-specific fundamentals (including their innovation and ability to outpace their industry, sector, etc even if the economy slows) are as important as any other technical factor. The charts are merely a highly refined measurement of crowd psychology in the marketplace. The quarterly reports are the measurement of the company.
Would I buy long here? Actually I bought $90 puts a week ago based on the chart data, seeing that a pullback looked eminent. When the charts improve, then I'll go long.
FWIW, I'm curious as to whether you actually were short at the time of your last post, and what was your calculation for where to cover?
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QUOTE (rmr1976) On a daily chart, I can understand why someone would think AAPL looked strong. On a weekly, it simply looks like one of the typical sharp counter trend rallies in a bear market, that is reaching a point where it should stop going up, and continue down. I wouldn't want to be buying here, that is for sure.
As for this options backdating--I'm not sure how significant it is, although I'm inclined to believe it isn't as important as it may seem.
If AAPL has to restate earnings because sales were mis-stated, that would be much more significant. What is going to bring AAPL down is changes in growth expectations.
If sales and earnings growth slows, as I expect it to, that is going to hurt the stock.
1. AAPL was waaay oversold & waiting for a catalyst
2. An analyst who is usually right on AAPL (Gene Munster/Piper-Jaffray) was quoted the following day with a restatement estimate of $25M. This compared with $4B++ in net profits same timeframe.
3. Why would you expect Apple's sales & earnings growth to slow? They're making solid gains in market share (computers) in the last 2 quarters - particularly with laptops. The high-end desktops are due to be released shortly, completing the company's product line transition to Intel chips (enabling running Windows natively side-by-side with the Mac OS. And in some cases, using a new application due in Sept. to run Windows programs natively on the Mac - via a compatibility layer - without needing Windows at all.) In fact, I'm hoping we can finally get TeleChart running on a Mac without having to resort to Virtual PC(!!!) As for iPods, they're showing no signs of slowing and have excellent growth prospects from here. Apple has just signed deals with automakers that will see some 70% of cars sold in the US fitted with iPod connectors from the factory.
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