| djdhrubs |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Sunday, February 17, 2008 |
| Wednesday, April 22, 2009 11:12:51 AM |
132
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770, 750, 730, mark to market, that's what the bears have to worry about. we might see low 770s today.
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we live in interesting times. tobydad, i know you use VIX to guide you a lot. what is your interpretation of the fact that yesterday, the market went up over 7%, but the vix didn't fall that much? i think it was higher yesterday than it was last week.
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thanks for the input guys. just from a technical point of view i was looking at the descending triangle forming over the last few weeks, the downward crossover on the MACD, the S&P being drawn towards the 740-750 support. that's why i'm bearish short term. but the bottom end of the descending triangle reaches as low as 600, before any bounce up or further down. at that stage, the triangle would have been completed and run out of room in the descending channel if you know what i mean and be ready to make a big move up or down. that's what the charts are telling me, but that is just my interpretation of it!
now just to put a spanner in the works, there is this big announcement possibly tomorrow regarding details of the cleansing of bank toxic assets. it makes me laugh that they put the recent leg of the crash down to insufficient details provided by geithner about the stimulus, so now they might put any potential rally coming up in the future down to sufficient details provided about the stimulus! perhaps each major government announcement should have 2 phases from now on: one that's sketchy, and then a more detailed one a couple of weeks later!
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Hi. I notice that several people on this forum seem quite bullish about our near term prospects, in that there is a belief that the market will rally to dow 8000ish, perhaps S&P 850+, before there later being a nasty, possibly final leg down.
i'm just not sure that's what's gonna happen. we're floating around between support lines at the moment after a nasty day down, and i see a retest of S&P 750ish, which is fairly strong support from november 2008, and this recent rally even hesitated there on its way up.
i take it that those people who are hopeful of a near term rally expect a strong bounce at this point. but isn't it just as likely that we slice down through this, make new lows in the near term, then rally back strongly before a final fall later in the year? i think its fair to say that much of the second half of this rally was based on speculation about what bernanke might say on wednesday. then when he did say something, the market jumped up for about 2 seconds, hit overhead resistance, and fell back down since. really, how much temporary hope can one man keep injecting into the economy?
usually, going into a weekend, i'm unsure about how things will pan out early the following week. but this time, i can only see one outcome: a gap down and a horrible down day, retesting 750 and who knows even lower. i don't see any news that might occur over the weekend that might spark a rally. plus, we're between support levels, and today was a down day on big volume (yeah i know it was quad OPEX but that's what the charts tell me!).
so i just wondered if anyone out there reckons like me that the short term future (next 7 days) is very bearish...
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we're approaching the 10% retracement bknight spoke about earlier in this thread. seems a logical thing to do to enter a short now...just my opinion!
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hi yeah sorry reality i meant bkinght's post. thanks for the insights all of you. reality would you mind explaining to me what you mean by 'withholding changes' on april 1st?
i just think its gonna be difficult not to have a go at shorting when the S&P reaches about 745, which hopefully it will in the next couple of days. i'm sitting in cash at the moment, patiently watching banking stocks rally. knowing when to pull the trigger is difficult though. i've noticed that the market makes a big move by about 11 o'clock in the morning, then has been trading the other way for the rest of the day but days like yesterday serve to confuse me further! so i'm gonna play off those resistance/ support levels, and only make a move in afternoon/ evening trading. don't have the time to day trade. as i speak the S&P is going up parabolic, and guess what its 10.50am.
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on what basis/ chart analysis are you saying that? the S&P may not even be able to bust through the 740-750 resistance area. i'm planning on getting into some short etfs if it hits these, with a tightish stop loss of course...!
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big rally today, with news expected on thursday which may in part be driving it. we've seen this kind of rally on several occasions in the last 2 months, most notably on the days prior to geithner talking about the stimulus deal. on every one of these recent occasions, a big rally has been followed by a crash.
if the market rises again tomorrow, and the S&P nudges up towards that 735ish resistance area, how aggressive will you be in going short? if recent history tell us anything, then it is that the market will crash on the day of the announcement on thursday. is that too simplistic an approach? or do you expect a prolonged rally this month?
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the support level of 680 is tenuous i agree, but there is one at this level going back several years, as indicated on another trading video forum website!
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i should say that i dipped my toes into ERX just before the close. i guess i'll find out how stupid i am tomorrow...
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