Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
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Hi. I notice that several people on this forum seem quite bullish about our near term prospects, in that there is a belief that the market will rally to dow 8000ish, perhaps S&P 850+, before there later being a nasty, possibly final leg down.
i'm just not sure that's what's gonna happen. we're floating around between support lines at the moment after a nasty day down, and i see a retest of S&P 750ish, which is fairly strong support from november 2008, and this recent rally even hesitated there on its way up.
i take it that those people who are hopeful of a near term rally expect a strong bounce at this point. but isn't it just as likely that we slice down through this, make new lows in the near term, then rally back strongly before a final fall later in the year? i think its fair to say that much of the second half of this rally was based on speculation about what bernanke might say on wednesday. then when he did say something, the market jumped up for about 2 seconds, hit overhead resistance, and fell back down since. really, how much temporary hope can one man keep injecting into the economy?
usually, going into a weekend, i'm unsure about how things will pan out early the following week. but this time, i can only see one outcome: a gap down and a horrible down day, retesting 750 and who knows even lower. i don't see any news that might occur over the weekend that might spark a rally. plus, we're between support levels, and today was a down day on big volume (yeah i know it was quad OPEX but that's what the charts tell me!).
so i just wondered if anyone out there reckons like me that the short term future (next 7 days) is very bearish...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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just let uncle ben give a few more speeches. Everything will start going downhill again. I don't know what he said, but it must have made an immediate impression on wall street.
At least it was easy to make money shorting, but sure didn't help any long term stuff.
Amazing how much D. C. helps our economy. Always looking out for our best interests.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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this rally wasn't about what Bernanke said this week, that just helped drive it another day. it started with Citi saying they were profitable, and I believe talk of suspending mark to market is playing a part.
Whatever you believe about the intermediate term, this rally was very overbought and now it's time for a pullback.
As far as how high this rally goes or whether we break to new lows, I quote a wise trader when I say "we will see".
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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Ben: I thought uncle ben gave some kind of speech today around noon. I figured that's why trading was flat before noon and took a nose dive after lunch. Like I said, didn't check out his speech, if he gave one.
I agree a small pullback would be ok. Someone said a nice long consolidation period would be best. Seems like a good idea, at least for a long term perspective, instead of huge volatility.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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Bernankes speech today was to community banks. Nothing that would have moved the markets.
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Registered User
Joined: 8/12/2006
Posts: 83
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It looks like Short term bounce came to an end today....
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (djdhrubs) Hi. I notice that several people on this forum seem quite bullish............
this board has always had a bullish bias. very few posters here recognized the bear market
until 4000 or so dow points had evaporated.
however, we have reached a "target" low. breadth indicators also confirm the current rally in the short term.
whether this initial "target" low will hold and the bear market ends, remains to be seen. for now its just another bear market rally.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (funnymony)
this board has always had a bullish bias. very few posters here recognized the bear market
until 4000 or so dow points had evaporated.
however, we have reached a "target" low. breadth indicators also confirm the current rally in the short term.
whether this initial "target" low will hold and the bear market ends, remains to be seen. for now its just another bear market rally.
Very well said ...
Apsll even branded me a "Permabear" ....
Have we seen "the bottom" ? .... Probably not ...
But we may have seen "a bottom" ...
At work ... we started using the new withholding tables in early March ... as did all of the large payroll providers ... and probably most businesses over 15 employees or so ...
That combined with the modification of FASB 157 ... and short selling rules ... has, in my very humble opinion, the potential to turn the bias bullish for, at least, a short time ...
My belief is that, longer term, we are destined to see a weaker USD ... which will result in higher commodity prices ...
And since a rising tide raise all boats ... I choose to do my equity investing outside of the US ... in hopes of benefitting from the currency offsets ...
But ... the market will tell us what we need to know ... in advance of needing to know it ... if we only listen ...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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....and it seems most on the board are more intent on going long the bounces rather than shorting the rallys. so it seems during these bear markets rallys the board gets more active.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (funnymony) ....and it seems most on the board are more intent on going long the bounces rather than shorting the rallys. so it seems during these bear markets rallys the board gets more active.
Very true ...
And this is one of the things that makes me think that we still have room to the downside ...
There is so much of a feeling that ... "The bottom is iminent ... and once we hit it ... we're going right back to 14K" ....
This is kind of the feeling that I would have expected in 1930 ...
What do you think that the feeling was like by early 1932 ?
Now OBAMA is proposing CEO pay limits ... even on companies NOT taking govt money ...
Like I said ... he's exporting capital & intellect ...
And the US will be left with ??
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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There is a difference between being Bullish and being an uber-Bull or being Bearish or a Perma-Bear. Diceman and I used to argue with a couple of Permabears back when we were enjoying the shade of the Bull Markets. They were predicting gloom around every street corner and kept saying that the 2003 Bull Market was just a small Bull rally within the context of a larger Bear Market. (As if the over-all market direction was going down) it did no good to show them that any long term chart we showed them was heading North.
This forum is mostly made up of Uber-Bulls. Me being one of them. I look to trade long in a Bull Market or in a Bear Market. I believe that the Markets despite any Bearish tendencies want to go up and do so when you look at a yearly time frame long term. I post on another forum that is mostly made up of Perma-Bears and they discuss shorting techniques. You have to find a forum that you feel most comfortable posting on. For me it has always been this one. Sorry Reality I do not recall labeling you a Permabears but if you say that I did then I must have thought so at the time.
I also see us going lower (to 500 or so on the SPX ) I think that we will see one more year and one more leg down in this Bear Market and then that is it. We will start to see a recovery. Slow or fast we will get it. Even the great Depression only hit the stock market for three years; as is typical for most Bear Markets. But I will be trading long all the way down to 500 because I am an Uber-Bull. For right now though I am Bearish.....
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Registered User
Joined: 2/1/2005
Posts: 36
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K.N.I.G.H.T.S…..S.Q.U.I.R.E.S…..G.U.A.R.D.S ….P.R.E.P.A.R.E F.O.R. B.A.T.T.L.E.! ! !
On the contary, it seems to me everyone on this board is deciding bearish. Lets assume that this bear started in Oct 07, reached a climatic selloff Oct 08, basically consolidated from Nov - Feb 9th. On the 10 of Feb Geithner fumbled the ball and the S&P declined another 22% hitting an interday low of 666 on Mar 4. So from peak to trough the S&P lost close to 54% in 18 months. THIS IS HUGE.
Right here right now this is nothing more than a bear market bounce. To be classified as a rally we need to put in a higher low at around the 750-740. Anything less could lead to a lower low. What happens next in this market is going to be news driven cause we already know and expect and have price in poor earnings with absolutely no growth in the economy the first half of 09.
So, whats on the plate this week that could send this market tanking to knew lows or soaring above 800 SP with tremendous force ( Volume ):
1) Geithner is expected to release details of the toxic asset program, will the BULLS catch this Hail Mary pass for a touch down or will he be sacked giving the momentum back to the Bears?
2) Expect the SEC to follow with a change in the accounting rules from mark to market to mark to cashflow. If and when, will this be enough for the Bulls to carry the S&P above 800? ? ?
The market will tell.
Good Luck
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Those are quite interesting observations sieandme ...
And although I agree with funnymony ... that most play the long side ... even when the trend is clearly down ... I believe that you are correct in that the sentiment here is decidedly bearish ...
I also agree with you that the market "seems" to be news driven ... but that catylst is often just an excuse to do ... what it wanted to do anyway ...
For instance ... the Fed announces that it is going to create out of thin air more than a TRILLION dollars ... and piss it away on worthless debt ... be it public or private ....
That news seemed to spark a fairly nice rally ...
But ... was that news really bullish ?
This is why I learned long ago that I must listen to the market ...
Because it adamently refuses to listen to me ...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
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thanks for the input guys. just from a technical point of view i was looking at the descending triangle forming over the last few weeks, the downward crossover on the MACD, the S&P being drawn towards the 740-750 support. that's why i'm bearish short term. but the bottom end of the descending triangle reaches as low as 600, before any bounce up or further down. at that stage, the triangle would have been completed and run out of room in the descending channel if you know what i mean and be ready to make a big move up or down. that's what the charts are telling me, but that is just my interpretation of it!
now just to put a spanner in the works, there is this big announcement possibly tomorrow regarding details of the cleansing of bank toxic assets. it makes me laugh that they put the recent leg of the crash down to insufficient details provided by geithner about the stimulus, so now they might put any potential rally coming up in the future down to sufficient details provided about the stimulus! perhaps each major government announcement should have 2 phases from now on: one that's sketchy, and then a more detailed one a couple of weeks later!
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (djdhrubs) it makes me laugh that they put the recent leg of the crash down to insufficient details provided by geithner about the stimulus ...
It amuses me each time I hear one of these commentators ... offer the "facts" of why the market did what it did on a particular day ...
But ... they have the microphone ... and I suppose that they can't just sit there and stare at it ...
The market seems to like the idea of printing money to get out of this mess ...
But ... we are selling our grandchildren into slavery ... as certainly as if we were to hand them over to slavemaster ... in exchange for a wad of cash ...
Oh well ...
I'll be long gone by then ... so screw it ... print money until the bearings on the printing presses are smoking from the heat ...
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I'm already teaching my adult children to (a) plan to fight (literal or figurative, you pick) for the country we once had and that they believe they should have, and (b) realize that with just a little freedom, one can always find ways to profit in every circumstance.
In the meantime, it's my job to give my all to stand for what is right and give them and theirs the best future for which I can provide (which doesn't mean materialistically, per se).
blessings.
by the way, at this time, S&P up 11.6, Nas up 16.75, Dow up 105. Hang Seng up 402 points, Nikkei up 276 points.
Somebody believes what Geithner is saying.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Oops forgot that you can't put letters within parentheses. OK, let's try this (a) = an a within parentheses and (b) = a b within parentheses.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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You know, that's really pretty funny. You could read my message as:
I'm already teaching my adult children to set their hair on fire and plan to fight...and have another beer realizing that with just a little freedom...
Oh well, you gotta see the humor in stuff.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
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QUOTE (Apsll)
There is a difference between being Bullish and being an uber-Bull or being Bearish or a Perma-Bear. Diceman and I used to argue with a couple of Permabears back when we were enjoying the shade of the Bull Markets. They were predicting gloom around every street corner and kept saying that the 2003 Bull Market was just a small Bull rally within the context of a larger Bear Market. (As if the over-all market direction was going down) it did no good to show them that any long term chart we showed them was heading North.
This forum is mostly made up of Uber-Bulls. Me being one of them. I look to trade long in a Bull Market or in a Bear Market. I believe that the Markets despite any Bearish tendencies want to go up and do so when you look at a yearly time frame long term. I post on another forum that is mostly made up of Perma-Bears and they discuss shorting techniques. You have to find a forum that you feel most comfortable posting on. For me it has always been this one. Sorry Reality I do not recall labeling you a Permabears but if you say that I did then I must have thought so at the time.
I also see us going lower (to 500 or so on the SPX ) I think that we will see one more year and one more leg down in this Bear Market and then that is it. We will start to see a recovery. Slow or fast we will get it. Even the great Depression only hit the stock market for three years; as is typical for most Bear Markets. But I will be trading long all the way down to 500 because I am an Uber-Bull. For right now though I am Bearish.....
How is it you manager to trade sucessfully on the long side in a bear market?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Trading the Invers ETF's for one thing. Also the Markets do not move in a straight line. And there is always somthing moving North. I am making more profits right now (Daily) than at any other time in my trading history.
The secret is in knowing how to use your charting software and long term trading experience.
Could I be making more profits if I were adept at selling short as well as buying long? "Yes"
Could I be making more profits if I were a master at playing Options as well as shorting and buying long? "Yes".
My situation is that I chose to focuss on one side of the Market and became obssesed with it. Long hours spent doing research on price action and chart study. Long hours spent on Bottom formations and accumulation patterns. I have now found enough success so that I can trade full time and I enjoy what I do. I am too set in my ways to learn new tricks and trade out of my comfort zone.
I hope that I answered your quesstion.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (traderm30)
How is it you manager to trade sucessfully on the long side in a bear market?
in 2007 and 2008, apsll spent long hours, on this board, debating the merits of using vsa to go long individual stocks, in a bear market.
now apsll is trading long the inverse etf's, with is essentially the same as going short.
so what does that tell you about going long in a bear market?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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QUOTE (traderm30)
How is it you manage to trade sucessfully on the long side in a bear market?
I have three groups of about 20-25 each picked March 3, March 10 and March 13. The first group is 25 winners/0 losers, up avg 68%; the 2nd group is 21 winners/4 losers, up avg 46%, the 3rd group is 21 winners/1 loser, up avg 26%.
You can go long in a bear market.
These are not inverse ETF's, they are stocks on which I went long.
I am making more money in this bear market going long and spending less time doing it than I was in the bull market. Please! No one "fix" this market.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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You know what? There might be an etf or two in there, don't know, don't care. But, definitely, many of them are stocks on which I went long.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
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we live in interesting times. tobydad, i know you use VIX to guide you a lot. what is your interpretation of the fact that yesterday, the market went up over 7%, but the vix didn't fall that much? i think it was higher yesterday than it was last week.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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QUOTE (realitycheck) Now OBAMA is proposing CEO pay limits ... even on companies NOT taking govt money ...
Like I said ... he's exporting capital & intellect ...
And the US will be left with ??
No he's not, idiot - quit listening to and spreading FOX "news" lies -
a stock board is especially not the place for it and this board has stunk ever since you joined it
****
On the March 24 edition of Fox News' Your World, host Neil Cavuto and nationally syndicated radio host Mark Levin falsely claimed that the Obama administration "want[s] to control executive pay," even for companies that have not received federal bailout assistance. After Levin stated that the administration "want to control executive pay, and they're not going to limit it to bailed-out companies," Cavuto replied, "No, it absolutely -- and they sent a signal about that. That they want to broaden this out." In fact, President Obama has made no such proposal. Indeed, earlier that day on Fox News, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said of such a proposal, "[T]here are not plans to do something broad like that."
On the March 24 edition of Fox & Friends, co-host Gretchen Carlson stated: "[O]ne of the interesting things that came up yesterday in the news, Robert, was the fact that maybe some of this executive compensation would spill over to other publicly traded companies. So, in other words, executives who work at institutions that are not receiving taxpayer dollars -- that your administration may, in fact, put a cap on their salaries as well." Gibbs replied: "Well, look, there are not plans to do something broad like that. The president has always believed that shareholders in a company ought to have a nonbinding say on the CEO pay of somebody in a company. I think that's a commonsense rule and regulation that allows and empowers shareholders to have a say in what makes sense."
Additionally, during his March 24 testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner made clear that in referring to restrictions on employee compensation, he was talking about "financial institutions that are receiving government assistance":
***
Just go away
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Friedman & Stiglitz step aside ...
hohandy is back ...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I agree with Hohandy; all you do is complain about the government. I never read any stock analysis from you. Do you even trade or are you just a political cynic? This is a stock trading forum and we do not mind the market analysis but leave the government alone and out of the forums. If you are not happy in this country then find somewhere else to live.
Welcome back Hohandy. Love your Blogs.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/23/2008
Posts: 214
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I agree with RC, as do most people here are not liberals. RC just tells it like it really is and exposes the liberal goverment.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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I think we still have freedom of speech in this country, although someone may have to verify that for me.
Therefore anyone can express ones opinion, it's just an opinion whether you agree with it not, that is your choice.
It seems that politics has a big effect on the economy and wall street. As they say , we small guys are just along for the ride.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Agm, I was not aware that you spoke for most people here. In your 10 months and 95 posts I guess that is enough time for you to gauge the pulse of the forum. Back in the day we did talk more about stocks. Hohandy is right; it was the advent of certain personalities that changed the flow of things. I guess that change is enevitable but we do not have to like it.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Why Apsll ...
I'm hurt ...
As I read your post so carefully ... and religously ...
As a matter of fact ... the trade that I'm currently in ... I had been watching for a while ...
And I even indicated so here ...
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=38637
But ... to be honest ... even though I had been watching the market building out a downward sloping consolidation in a downtrend starting 3/3 ... I was still sort of on the fence ...
Then ... I read where ... after the Dow only losing 7000+ points ... you had discovered 3X bear ETFs ... and that you and your friends were just making money hand over fist ... and you had discovered the "i ching" ... E I E I O ...
Well ... that's when I knew ...
So ... I placed the largest trade that I had ever placed in my entire life ... 100% opposite to your opinion ...
So ... keep posting ...
I'd really like to know when you turn bullish ...
So that I can exit ...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I really do doubt your abilities to make money in any market Reality since we do not have a record of your results. You claim that your trading the oposite to my picks so I guess that this makes you a counter trend trader. Now at least we have some clue as to how you trade.
Just to keep you up to date so that you can continue on your current losing streak (since I am on a winning streak and you are trading opposite to me than one can only assume that you are losing), I am trading the invers ETF's. I am trading the pro shares and any other stock that fits my criteria for ATR and volume. I trade them long when they are trending on the 1 minute charts, so I guess that when they trend up I am buying and you are selling, just like you mentioned above.
Good luck with that one. I cannot wait for your Book to hit the shelves...
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138
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It really is possible to discuss politics with civility and without insults. I've seen it done. Locking topic.
-Bruce
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