Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
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FULCRUM HYPOTHESIS MODEL
The model is based on an SP500 weekly chart. While I have been following it sporadically since it's creation, because it continues to track well, I'm now giving it more attention. As previously posted, the week ending FEB 11 the model projected the SP500 would move laterally for the next 16 weeks with 2 to 3 choppy peaks above the 1320 level. Then the week ending APR 29 was projected to put in the final high. The week ending MAY 27 was projected to decline and challenge the 1280 level. Finally, the week ending JUN 10 was projected to kiss the 1320 level goodbye a final time before the big move down initiated.
Last week I completed the calculations for the projected turns going forward. With the caveat that the model can stop working at any time, or the time/price coefficient can change from it's current value, the following are the time and price level projections:
Week ending APR 29 2011 = TOP
Week ending AUG 5--12 2011 = sub 1120 = Wave 1 down
Week ending NOV 4--11 2011 = 1150 to 1200 = Wave 2 up
Week ending MAY 18 2012 = 700 to 800 = Wave 3 down
Week ending JUL 6 2012 = 800 = Wave 4 up
Week ending AUG 3--10 2012 = sub 700 = Wave 5 down
Best of luck to all.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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I wonder what signals would be generated if one were to overlay the Fulcrum levels with some Fibonacci lines, Elliot Waves, and Ichimoku Clouds?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 2,499
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QUOTE (fpetry) I wonder what signals would be generated if one were to overlay the Fulcrum levels with some Fibonacci lines, Elliot Waves, and Ichimoku Clouds?
lol
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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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Two who walk among us with brown-stained heads! A couple of "deep, dark" thinkers.
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 Platinum Customer
Joined: 1/3/2005
Posts: 2
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Scanit,
Can you tell us something about your Fulcrum Hypthesis model and how
it is formulated and how it works?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 2,499
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QUOTE (scanit) Two who walk among us with brown-stained heads! A couple of "deep, dark" thinkers.
One needs an umbrella with the BS raining down. Fulcrum Hypothesis indeed! It is deep because we're wading through the BS. It is dark becuase the BS is blocking out the sun.
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Just the facts sir or mam! Do tell..
Please answer any of these questions so that others may test the "Model"
1. What are the conditions of the Fulcrum Hypothesis?
2. What are the entry rules?
3. What are the exit rules?
4. How does it perform in a backscan?
5. What is the trading frequency?
6. What is the win%?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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jas0501: Now why couldn't you have ask those questions politely to begin with? Because, besides being a poor reflection of your character, education, and upbringing, unprovoked rudeness is a classic sign of a sociopath. Wipe the brown from your eyes!
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Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
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A little gogling and searching through one of my subscribed forums I found something related to "Fulcrum".
It must have been just the word that inspired me to do so, instead of the bikkering back and forth here. haha lighten up !!
http://www.traderszone.com/trading-software-exchange/699-omintrader-fulcrum-trading-module-fulcrum-seminar.html
if this is the same what scanit is referring to, then I'm interested.
And if this isn't the holy grail either, then just take this advice :
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Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
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Well let me say first of all that as soon as I saw the url link on pthegreat I observed that there was some mispelling - it is not omintrader, but omnitrader.
You can find more information about this fulcrum system at:
http://www.nirvanasystems.com/omnitrader/products/OT/fulcrum.asp
If the url link is not allowed like I said you can find info at nirvana systems.
This is the thing, a long time ago when I was starting as a daytrader back in the 90's I purchased some of their systems. Expensive stuff that didn't live to the expectations of course.
Until this day, they continue to mail me their advertisement marketing crap. It looks fantastic on the flyer, but truly that is as good as it going to get - beyond the flyer it won't go far.
You will be wasting your time, money, and resorces.
Besides you also have to buy their data. lolo.
Not sure so if this is what scanit was taking about initially. I guess he will have to explain.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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First off, let me apologize to all the thoughtful readers and contributors of this forum. Unfortunately, there are a few sociopaths who troll here and attempt to prevent intelligent sharing of information among traders of all skill levels. There is no negotiating with a sociopath, one must neuter and lobotomize them as circumstances require.
To pthegreat and BillBaker, the information you referenced is unrelated to any of my work. If you read the Fulcrum Hypothesis Model post (above) I make no claims to it's accuracy, in fact, I point out a few instances where it was off, and caution that it may quit tracking as well as it has so far. I will let the projections stand as they were given.
To give you an idea of my model work, the following is an example of my SP500 intraday model from today (6-29-11):
this was emailed and posted with approx. 3 hours remaining in WED's session, it looks like the SP500 is settling out @ 1307.41 for the close.
In WED's early afternoon session, the DejaVu Intraday Trading Model generated a strong signal suggesting 75% odds that the SP500 will close above 1307.40 today. The signals can either be strong (greater odds) or weak (lesser odds) and are calculated with prior actual results.
Additionally, approximately 36% of these signals will produce an SP500 close within 1.5 points of the given target level (1307.40).
So, with just less than 3 hours remaining, let's keep an eye on the zone between 1307.41 to 1308.90 as a potential closing spot today.
best of luck
(Personally, I was hoping for a hard reversal down, but I'm posting this model's signal as part of the process in tracking it. Patience please.)
For all doubters, you may find the post at http://www.globalperspectives.info/our-perspective-blog/economics-blog/3946-china-overheating-shillings-part-3#JOSC_TOP
Note: I post under different monikers than "scanit"
Again, I have great respect for the Worden family and users of this forum, but have little patience for those who launch unprovoked attacks of rudeness. You'd think someone who's posted thousands of comments here would have learned some manners.......but then they are sociopaths!
Thanks
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 2,499
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lol
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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Scanit, you need to have thicker skin; labeling me or another poster as a sociopath along with scatological remarks, neutering, lobotomizing, is off the scale extreme. But I do apologize for not offering a more congenial explanation on my opinion of Fulcrum; in haste I simply made a short and fast post to get point across. I made the remark of lumping Fulcrum with other certain indicators and/or market prognostication tools because I believe all of them are a waste of time for making money in the markets. Only my opinion. I like the old saying, trade what you see in the now, not what you think for future macro events. I've developed this philosophy for myself from practically every successful pro trade/investor whose books and comments I've studied through the years. Yes, you were highlighting the hypothesis method as a point of interest for discussion and noted its shortcomings. So thanks for bringing Fulcurm up for interesting discussion and in future I'll try to reply more reasonably at beginning or not at all.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/6/2009
Posts: 78
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jas0501; you are an inconsiderate JERK!!!!
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Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
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Scanit doesn't seem to be interested in sharing his magic formula, so I think we need to change our questioning to :
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Are the values in hard currency?
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 2,499
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QUOTE (dryfess) jas0501; you are an inconsiderate JERK!!!!
lol
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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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IT'S COMING !
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Registered User
Joined: 5/11/2009
Posts: 120
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Nice call scanit.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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QUOTE (scanit) IT'S COMING !
Didn't read the full previous post that brought on the criticism. But I figure we're screwed. This is going to be devastating, and will last for years.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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QUOTE (johnlc) QUOTE (scanit) IT'S COMING !
Didn't read the full previous post that brought on the criticism. But I figure we're screwed. This is going to be devastating, and will last for years.
Sounds like a bottom. 
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Registered User
Joined: 7/30/2007
Posts: 1,072
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There was a great post earlier in the week over at GrowthStockWire dot com by Jeff Clark titled "The Easiset Investment System Ever". You can search their archives for the entire post, but here's an excerpt ...
"But I think I've finally figured it out. The answer came to me when I was visiting my friend Dan in the hospital last weekend. Dan was in really good spirits, considering he just had quadruple bypass surgery.
"It's the drugs," he confessed. "Every time it gets too painful, I just point to the chart over there and the nurse ups my dosage."
Dan gestured toward a laminated picture of the pain chart.
You've probably seen it before. It's a picture of a series of faces that range from happy to sad. Its design helps improve communication between hospital patients and their caregivers.
Here's what it looks like...
"How are you feeling?" the nurse will ask.
You just point to the face that best represents your pain level, and the nurse drugs you up accordingly. It's a remarkably simple way to make sure we get the right amount of medicine. If you're uncomfortable, you just point to one of the frowny faces on the chart and the nurse increases your dosage.
On the other hand, if you're giddy beyond belief and you point to the super-grin smiley face, the nurse can cut you off completely.
We should use a similar chart for investors.
Think about it... What better way is there to gauge your proper exposure to the stock market?
Once again, we all know the best time to buy stocks is when there's panic... when investors are suffering the most pain. And we all know the best time to sell is when Mom and Pop Public are grinning ear to ear because of the huge gains in their stock portfolio.
A financial advisor could instruct any client, "Please point to the face on the chart that best represents how you feel about the stock market right now." If the client points to a frowny face, the advisor knows it's a good time to increase that client's dosage of stocks.
On the other hand, if the client points to one of the happy faces, the advisor knows it's time to cut back on the dosage."
It is the easiest investment system ever.
Now that the S&P has fallen for seven out of eight days, I'd bet most investors out there would count themselves an eight or 10. Please drug yourself accordingly... and buy stocks."
Sounds as good as any of the indicators we're using today ... maybe Worden can add it to the TC2000 indicator library.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/sandp-considering-first-downgrade-of-us-credit-rating/2011/08/05/gIQAqKeIxI_story.html
I am sure this magic fulcrum hypothesis model is not the only one that forecasted this decline. Some here might remember we had indepth discussion on a prediction made by the author of the indicators I use, just before the top.
I think we all are a little more interested in the reasoning and explanation of the method used, in order to come to your prediction, then the prediction itself. So far I haven't seen any reasoning, mathematics, formulas, or whatever, explaining this "fulcrum method".
Upon release of such info we can all make up or own minds whether its usefull or not.
So scanit, come forward, what's the magic formula?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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AUG 8 2011 SP500 close = 1119.46 This fulfills the target of "Week ending AUG 5--12 2011 = sub 1120"
.....and as the Fulcrum Hypothesis Model promptly arrived at the predetermined checkpoint, the believers rose in solidarity as another victory was tallied for the side of truth and justice.
In the name of Leonardo Fibonacci,
In the name of Benoit Mandelbrot,
In the name of R. N. Elliott,
In the name of J. Welles Wilder, Jr.,
In the name of Samuel J. "Bud" Kress,
I rebuke the attackers and cast you upon the flames of disbelief. Heed the masters, repent, and save your soul from an eternal cycle in the porcelain bowl.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 2,499
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Serve up the kool-aid!
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 2,499
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“Fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves,but wiser people so full of doubts.”
Sir Bertrand Russell
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Registered User
Joined: 6/3/2005
Posts: 4
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Nutbag!
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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[Q, and save your soul from an eternal cycle in the porcelain bowl.
I've been there after a nite of partying, you pass out with your head in the porcelain god. I promise I'll never do this again. Well maybe not. It's nice and cool anyway.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/30/2007
Posts: 1,072
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I'm continually amused by folks who seem compelled to piss on people who might think differently than they do.
Without differences of opinion, there would be no need for markets. Think about it - if everyone was as "enlightened" as you are, who is going to take the other side of your trades? How are you going to make money? Who is going to sell when you want to buy? Who's going to be willing to buy what you're selling?
If everyone is on your side and there is no one left to make a trade with, well ... who's the "nutbag" now?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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QUOTE (Putt4Dough)
I'm continually amused by folks who seem compelled to piss on people who might think differently than they do.
Without differences of opinion, there would be no need for markets. Think about it - if everyone was as "enlightened" as you are, who is going to take the other side of your trades? How are you going to make money? Who is going to sell when you want to buy? Who's going to be willing to buy what you're selling?
If everyone is on your side and there is no one left to make a trade with, well ... who's the "nutbag" now?
Exactly.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
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QUOTE (Putt4Dough)
I'm continually amused by folks who seem compelled to piss on people who might think differently than they do.
Without differences of opinion, there would be no need for markets. Think about it - if everyone was as "enlightened" as you are, who is going to take the other side of your trades? How are you going to make money? Who is going to sell when you want to buy? Who's going to be willing to buy what you're selling?
If everyone is on your side and there is no one left to make a trade with, well ... who's the "nutbag" now?
I yet have to see on what this person who started this thread is basing his opinion on. Having an opinion without being able to explain your reasoning, to me falls in the 'nutbag' category.
But then again there are plenty of traders that cant think for themselves and blindly follow opinions. Hence the 'nutbag' comment is valid, in my opinion.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/30/2007
Posts: 1,072
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Asking someone if they can back up an opinion with reasoning and/or facts is perfectly fine.
Name calling is just !@#$%&* rude.
No worries. To each his own. Knock yourself out.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/13/2011
Posts: 88
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I called for a 40% drop in the market in the thread - http://forums.worden.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=52729
A 40% drop would put the SP500 around that 700 level, which is what the "fulcrum" is calling for.
I just used fundamental analysis of the market and regular support and resistant levels to come to that conclusion. And of course this is just especulative and not a prediction, but I truly think it is headed in that way, and less something dramatic changes in our economy.
There is nothing out there that would predict with certainty that far ahead.
So it is my opinion that it doesn't matter, whether he got that fulcrum from a crystal ball or the left pocket, what matters is whether you believe it or not, and whether it will happen or not.
Best thing is to follow your own work, your own believes, and your own targets.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/30/2007
Posts: 1,072
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QUOTE (Bill Baker) Best thing is to follow your own work, your own beliefs, and your own targets.
Amen.
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 11/13/2004
Posts: 102
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Scanit - Good Job!
My market and Elliott wave analyses have similarities to your fulcrum analysis so I'm interested in any updates, as they develop.
soc
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/13/2004
Posts: 102
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Scanit - so far the projection of Nov. 4 being a bottom of sorts may be in the cards. Maybe not, we'll see. Here's how I see the Elliott wave picture.
[IMG]http://i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee42/emarks2/SPX2011Oct19.jpg[/IMG]
http://i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee42/emarks2/SPX2011Oct19.jpg
I don't know why it's coming out so cloudy. It's been a couple years since I tried to paste a chart. Anyway, I show a wave 3 starting down shortly with potential targets; 1114, 1086 and 1000.
soc
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 2,499
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For those of us who don't embrace Elliot wave the cloudy image was kind of ironic.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/25/2005
Posts: 145
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Call the Fulcrum Hypothesis Model tardy,
call it imprecise on it's 2nd targeted date, (after nailing the 1st),
but don't call this SP500 weekly model an impossibility.
Subscribing to the wonderful Worden stock market software = modest dollars
Sharing an interesting SP500 predictive model on Worden forum = zero dollars
Replying to those who impolitely demand a set of audited, notarized financial statements = 2 cents
Watching the Fulcrum Hypothesis Model take "a dump" on brownheads fpetry and jas0501 = priceless
Apologies to all thoughtful readers for my response to the rude and illiterate, but I have no qualms in grinding them into the dirt after they attacked first.
Yes, you may take me to task for responding in kind, but sometimes it's fun to "shoot fish in a barrel."
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