Data is stuck at 9/30/2014 4:00 close.

Keeps reconnecting, but fails to begin 10/1/2014 data.

SP500 OCTET RULE

January              July              September
15-1472.34    3-1615.41     2-Holiday
16-1472.63    4-Holiday      3-1639.77
17-1480.94    5-1631.89     4-1653.08
18-1485.98    8-1640.46     5-1655.08
21-Holiday    9-1652.32      6-1655.17
22-1492.56    10-1652.62    9-1671.71
23-1494.81    11-1675.02    10-1683.99
24-1494.82    12-1680.19    11-pending
25-1502.96    15-1682.50    12-pending
8 days UP        8 days UP     6 & pending


SP500 ElectroMagnetic Suspension
    1685.15
    1684.83

    9-11-2013    We are here

    1672.40
    1669.42
Note the direction of the break (above/below)
 

FYI:  For those interested in short-term multi-day swing positions.

As of Thursday's close, we see nearly one-fifth of the SP500 stocks are positioned for a coordinated move.  Sectors with heavy representation include:

Insurance/Financials/Banks

Semi's/Tech

Air &Rail Freight

Media

The signal direction will come as soon as FRI, or we'll be waiting til next week.  For those wishing to play along, prior to Friday's close, take a look at (MS, BLK, ZION, FITB) as representatives of the broad group.  If you determine that they will close higher on Friday, then the signal dictates the broad group as a whole is expected to move higher over the coming days.  If these representatives close lower on Friday, then the signal direction will be postponed until next week.

Have a good weekend.

Amazing!  After taking twice the typical amount of time to generate a trend initiation signal, the SP500 has finally done it.  In this model's construct, you reach a point where you know that a trending move is preparing to launch.  Following this formation, it just becomes a waiting game to receive the trend initiation signal trigger.  This afternoon the signal was given, and the direction is upwards.  In eight of the last ten signals, the direction indicated on the day in which the trend initiation signal was generated has proven to be accurate.  Nevertheless, let the trend prove itself as to direction. 

On your SP500 daily chart, you may wish to draw a circle around today's date to serve as a reference for this anticipated trend launch.

The "Powers That Be Bernanke" are scheduled to continue their POMO ways this month on the following days: April 9, 10, 12, 15, 16, 18, 19, 22, 23, 24, 25, 29, 30,  then May.
 

SP500 Yearly HI's
1999 = 1473.10    2000 = 1552.87
2007 = 1576.09    2008 = 1471.77
2012 = 1474.51    2013 = 1573.89 (today)

SP500 Running Late For Appointment, But Vows To Not Be A No-Show

Yes, the anticipated SP500 trend turn is later than expected, but still pending.  Based on recent years patterns, I believed the trend  initiation signal would be generated by last Thursday or this Monday.  We are now matching an extension series last seen in 2008 and 2005, and will perhaps exceed those if we continue another day or two.  It's now simply a waiting game, before the trend initiation signal is generated and we're ready to ride a trend which should be worth the wait.

On the day that the trend initiation signal is generated, a direction (up or down) will be indicated for the SP500 trend to follow. In 8 of the last 10 signals, the direction indicated has proven to be accurate.
I will next post on the day the signal is generated.

SP500 Yearly HI's
1999 = 1473.10    2000 = 1552.87
2007 = 1576.09    2008 = 1471.77
2012 = 1474.51    2013 = 1573.66 (today)

As of the close on Wednesday, no trend initiation signal generated yet, but an additional 32 stocks (of the SP500) joined the ranks of those indicating a willingness to participate in this imminent trending move.  That takes the list of stocks to nearly 30% of the SP500.  Continue to expect the signal Thursday or Monday.

ALERT

It is now very late Tuesday evening, and we're reviewing a preliminary report from the signal intelligence division.

The SP500 surveillance team has reported increased "chatter" from subject's communications equipment, and is expecting an imminent strong trending move to begin as early as Wednesday 3-27-13, and likely no later than Monday 4-1-13.  Updates will attempt to identify the trend direction once the initiation signal has been issued.  We are confident the move is forthcoming, thus this heads-up alert.  Analysis indicates that presently (20% +)  of the SP500 listed stocks appear to have given commitments to this trend.  Historical profile indicates this type of trending move can last from several days to weeks.

This particular signal pattern was last observed in June 2012 and indicated an expected SP500 move upward.
While this signal is not the one referenced previously, which usually always appears prior to longer-term trend reversals, it has nonetheless proven to be a useful  tool to catch trending moves.

Lesser technical indicators are supportive of this anticipated move.

Equity markets closed Friday in observance of Good Friday.  Have a safe weekend, keep your ears open and your head up.

 

As of  MON's close, the SP500 had closed higher for 7 consecutive days.  The  record for consecutive closes in the same direction is 8 consecutive higher closes just back in JAN 2013.  I reviewed the SP500 records going back into 2004 for consecutive strings of higher/lower closes.

TUE (approximately noon) the SP500 is down 3 points.

SP500 Yearly HI's
1999 = 1473.10    2000 = 1552.87
2007 = 1576.09    2008 = 1471.77
2012 = 1474.51    2013 = 1556.77 (today)

The usually reliable SP500 signal which appears prior to significant trend turns has yet to manifest itself, so we continue the waiting game.

-----------------------------------------

You may find yourself living in a foreclosed shack
You may find yourself in another part of the world
You may find yourself behind the wheel of a large gas-guzzling automobile
You may find yourself in a beautiful house with a beautiful wife
You may ask yourself, well, how did I get here?
Letting the days go by, let the system hold me down
Letting the days go by, money flowing underground
Into the blue again after the fascism's gone   
Once in a lifetime, money flowing underground
You may ask yourself, how do I work this?
You may ask yourself, where is that large automobile?
You may tell yourself, this is not my beautiful house
You may tell yourself, this is not my beautiful wife
Letting the days go by, let the system hold me down
Letting the days go by, money flowing underground
Into the blue again, after the fascism's gone
Once in a lifetime, money flowing underground
Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was
Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1wg1DNHbNU
 

We Live In Interesting Times!

Today (3-5-2013), was once more a case of the SP500 ramping upward at the open, only to quickly exhaust itself and drift laterally the remainder of the trading day.  

Something I call the McClellan Disequilibrium Phenomenon has now appeared for the 5th time, and while that's a small sample size, we'll test William Shakespeare's quote of  "What's past is prologue."

     In 2012, 18 days after appearing, the SP500 hit a short-term low after losing 76.75 points

     In 2011, 13 days after appearing, the SP500 hit a short-term low after losing 206.38 points

     In 2011, 10 days after appearing, the SP500 hit a short-term low after losing 49.13 points

     In 2008, 8 days after appearing, the SP500 hit a short-term low after losing 166.77 points

The NYSE Advance/Decline indicates a bias to be looking to short the SP500 at WED's open for the trading session tomorrow.  The bias is anticipating the likelihood of a lower SP500 close on WED.

SP500 Yearly HI's
1999 = 1473.10    2000 = 1552.87
2007 = 1576.09    2008 = 1471.77
2012 = 1474.51    2013 = 1543.47

Good luck to all

Am continuing to wait for the signal which usually always appears prior to a significant trend reversal for the SP500 daily chart.

Thought this was a good post today on ZeroHedge from Chris Martenson:

ohedge.com/news/2013-02-28/guest-post-diminishing-qe-returns-and-coming-40-correctiont