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Last Saturday I posted some candidates for the bounce strategy. and only two hit from the list. VLCM & PHM Below is a link to a thread started by Scottnlena that explains the mechanics of my system. and below that is the list of candidates that I posted last Saturday.
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=28344
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This strategy has its critics Some reputable and one just a fool. But I tell you that I have put a lot of research into this system by studying the price action during the bounces in the last bear market. I am not done refining and tweaking this system, any input from others that want to contribute is very welcome.
Below is a chart of VLCM and how you could have made some money from following the system. I did not participate in this one (I regret that).
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Joined: 6/22/2005
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In an effort to get things going I will post some picks for discussion
DSL bounce to 20 ma
PERY could go 20 dollars
AVTR
SPG back to the 50 ma
AKS back to 20 ma
These may or may not go there but they are in my watch list if we get a drop and then a pop i will buy some on volume!!!!
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Iwanaphish, I looked at your picks and they all look good to me. Below is my updated list. The pre-market futeres are negative right now so that means maybe only a few hits today.
Good luck everyone
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Thought i would give an update on one of my picks
spg up 3.00 from open
avtr up 2.00 from open
AKS up 2.50 from open
pery up .60 from open
DSL at the 20 ma up 3.00 from open
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I entered PHM at $11.00 and SPF at $2.30
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Just sold SPF at $2.50 - 9.9% profit $1,200 (Dispute that Bigblock)
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Just sold PHM at $11.69 - 6.1% profit $2,070 (Dispute that Bigblock)
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Just Bought FNF at $15.40
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Nice trades Apsll.
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Thanks David, Shhhh. Do not let bigblock know that this is actually working. He might convert and then where would I find a new arch-enemy....
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Joined: 9/7/2005
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I appreciate this thread and its candor, but think you need to leave the taunting out of it. They are unnecessary and you are inviting a reply from someone who you explicitly requested not participate. With 3 teenagers I get enough of this at home.
I'm curious did your scans bring up anything in the financials? Would you play them if it did or do you think this is an oversold bounce that will culminate in the resumption of the downtrend?
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Of course you are correct Winfieldh. My frustration with him is mighty, but I must rise above it and take the high road.
I do not look at Fundimentals for short term trading. I do expect the downtrend to continue. That is the thesis behind this trading style. I am only trading the bounce and when my profit is satisfactory I exit.
So far I have been Day trading these stocks but there could arise the oppertunity to be able to hold for one to three days. Considering the size of my trading portfolio these are nickel & dime profits, but I will take that over trying to trade in a way that I am not comfortable with in this bear market, or even take losses.
Try trading this system the way that I have detailed and let me know if you have any luck..
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ApsII you are a very intelligent person to listen to the wise councel of Winfieldh. I commend you in bringing all this to a hault. I enjoy reading these posts otherwise.
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Just sold FNF at $15.53 (very small profit $260.00) I am done for the day. I do not like to detail my trades like this but if I do not then speculation will rear its ugly head in doubt of the effectivness of this new trading style in a bear market.
I hope that you will all catch on soon and enjoy the same success that I am. Ask questions and give feed back. those that do have an interest will want to start making profits soon.
Good luck.
Apsll.
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JOE came up on my scan last night ... I didn't find it through your methods Apsll but checked it agains your template. Probably not the greatest candidate... but it worked. I'll be gonig through your methods tonight as I expect he bounce to be sooner than later. see what we come up with.
day traded it today for a very small proffit.. My account is obviously smaller than yours but the trade came off nicely.
Joe trade:
| JOE |
1/23/2008 |
L |
$ 32.78 |
$ 1.00 |
100 |
| 1/23/2008 |
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$ 33.41 |
$1.00 |
$ 61.00 |
took it intra day. Indexes plumeting. …… |
Premature |
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I should have stayed in FNF It has charched up to $15.85, I only had 2,000 shares but still I left $700 dollars on the table (maybe more by the end of trading). Never get greedy though, that will lead to trouble.
I must say that given the Market conditions todays list is doing very well. I did not expect this many hits..
Scott, Joe did not make it on my scan because the conditions would have placed it on the list on the 16th of Jannuary I am going to start keeping two lists one for new cadidates and one for old candidates, it is difficult to monitor so many stocks on my live streamer but if that is what must be done then so be it. Thanks for bringing this to my attention.
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It might be easier to switch back to platinum for this style. it will not be as fast as my streaming qoutes but I can set realtime conditions and that will help me to manage a big list of stocks more efficiently.
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Apsll,
Great thread. Thanks for sharing the trades and the play by play. I, for one, enjoy the discussion and the fast gains. I also like looking at intraday charts as trades play out. I say we keep the post going and review the trades. The more looked at the more experience gathered. Wouldn't mind seeing a few that don't work out as well to plan exit strategies.
How tight is your stop? 1%? trailing? Once again, thanks for the charts. you too, Scott. Nice trade. It's great to look at them. After doing the backtest and looking at how favorable a fast, quick profit system can work out, I'm excited to see more.
David John Hall
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APSLL I don't know if you have intra day charts but if you do look at hourly charts with % true indicator some great early entries look at PJC Would have gotten you in yesterday at 11 am and you could have rode the wave from 41.35 to 48.00 the current price once again great indicator
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David, I just switched back over to the platinum service for the rest of this bear market so as to be able to handle larger lists and not let the older ones slip to far away (Scott reminded me of the importance of this today) it looks like day trading will be the order of the day with this new style and I need to design a way to handle many charts (real-time) my E-trade streamer although fast cannot handle the work load. So some of my chart examples will now be in realtime.
I am not a big fan of the stop loss, I use them somtimes and sometimes I do not. If you look at the action of FNF today then you will see what I mean. That is why I sold pre-maturely it was bouncing up and down like a yo-yo. I was looking at intraday stochastics (Bigcharts.com) to make my buy but that was lagging 15 minut dalay on price, so it was tough.
I personaly do not like play by play. Signaltap does this all day long every day and to me it is annoying, but that is what people want so I do not know what I will do. If I do not give complete details of my trades I am called a liar so for now I guess that is what I will do..
Apsll.
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QUOTE (Apsll)
Scott, Joe did not make it on my scan because the conditions would have placed it on the list on the 16th of Jannuary I am going to start keeping two lists one for new cadidates and one for old candidates, it is difficult to monitor so many stocks on my live streamer but if that is what must be done then so be it. Thanks for bringing this to my attention.
My current system has a peiod of time where the candidates should be watched for 2nd chances if followthrough fails on the initial signal. In the end I think what ever method a trader uses it's just a "Reason to Watch" a particular stock. i accept that there is some random activity in the daily view AND the great "THEY" if there is one aren't alwayse going to make it easy.. but I noticed in my own tradign that often the followthrough for a signal I got .. what ever it was came later... in some models a month later. So I look for strength in a overallpatterns catch on my "Hook" that I trade and keep the same fish in the take for a while. MOST of my winning trades come from my nightly check list NOT my scan.. some come fromt he night they pop up on the scan.. MOST pop up and get moved to a watchlist and the actual entry comes a few days or even week later.
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QUOTE (Apsll)
I personaly do not like play by play. Signaltap does this all day long every day and to me it is annoying, but that is what people want so I do not know what I will do. If I do not give complete details of my trades I am called a liar so for now I guess that is what I will do..
Apsll.
We all know who the liar is.. read a few books by freud, or a favorite of mine .. (it's been written years ago so It's not fresh in my mind) written by a former con artist turned FBI consultant , the book is for women that habitual wind up in abusive relationships.. "Never be lied to again" or something like that. Some recognizeable patterns.
any way .. why do you need to do "Play by Play".. I don't Just save a snap shot of the screen at the end fo the trade or even the end of the day .. and then draw in the entries and exits as "TRendlines"...
Man i'm gald I listened to the loudest voice here and wen't short like crazy ! NOT.. I'm having a great day ! Just hit my next equity line land mark, milestone ! GOING LONG IN A BEAR MARKET !
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Scott I am not 100% sure what you are trying to say here, But it is easy to claim success in a trade after the fact. you can draw out the entire process of what you did but what proof does one have that you actually made this trade. (I am not refering to you or any of your trades), but in general terms there is always room for doubt with this method. That is why in the past I have always shared my pics before the market opened or before the stocks rise in price action so that those that follow my trades can see for them self that my pic was true.
As of late I have been accused of lying about my trading so in order to silence the critics so to speak, I feel compelled to resort to the play by play method (for now).
Believe me Scott and all that know me well over the years here on this forum, I wish that there was a simple solution to eliminate this major thorn that has tainted this fine forum, but I am helpless to eliminate it (and it is very frustrating). It is clear that I am going to have to find a way to deal with this situation. right now I know not how. I guess that I will have to make adjustments and change my approach to things. I hope it does not change me to much. Thanks everyone for your support over the years, it has been fun and educational for me.
Apsll.
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Apsll, Hang in there and only do what You want to do.
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APSLL: In my readings (Sometimes, a book a day) I ran across a memorable quote from a forgotten author (Swope, maybe??)
"I cannot tell you why a man succeeds at what he does. The reasons for success are too many.
I can only tell you why a man fails at what he does.
He tries to make EVERYBODY happy."
I never give advice. However, If I were to do so, I would tell you to do what you like and feel good about.
Those who trust will believe. Skeptics would not do so if God told them.
Keep on keeping on.
Mammon
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QUOTE (Apsll) Scott I am not 100% sure what you are trying to say here, But it is easy to claim success in a trade after the fact. you can draw out the entire process of what you did but what proof does one have that you actually made this trade. (I am not refering to you or any of your trades), but in general terms there is always room for doubt with this method. That is why in the past I have always shared my pics before the market opened or before the stocks rise in price action so that those that follow my trades can see for them self that my pic was true.
As of late I have been accused of lying about my trading so in order to silence the critics so to speak, I feel compelled to resort to the play by play method (for now).
Believe me Scott and all that know me well over the years here on this forum, I wish that there was a simple solution to eliminate this major thorn that has tainted this fine forum, but I am helpless to eliminate it (and it is very frustrating). It is clear that I am going to have to find a way to deal with this situation. right now I know not how. I guess that I will have to make adjustments and change my approach to things. I hope it does not change me to much. Thanks everyone for your support over the years, it has been fun and educational for me.
Apsll.
I'm trying to say the hell with what people say or think... you know and those whoe know you trust you. Pluss it's allot of work to go through and make up trades... it's probably more work than just recording the real ones.
But fine.. Like MVL.. I anounced the day and time when I got in.. ... then two days later I posted the charts with notes and exits drawn on them. you could alwayse copy and paste the exact info from your brokerage trade confirmations (make shure account numbers are not in there) but that is allot of work.. if someone wants to call you a liar.. there isn't much to stop them.. I've been satisfied with what you've posted .. and I'm with you, a play by play like Signaltap is to much ... he's only donig it for a couple instruments at a time... you're trading up to 10 as i gather. Don't let someone elses skeptcisim affect your bottom line. While you dicking with photobucket and anotating charts during the trading day you're gonna miss something you need not miss... an entry or an exit and it's gonna cost you.
Logically speaking ... it makes no sense for a reasonable honest person to suddenly not be so. You've never given reason to mis trust.. so what has happened for that expectation to change for the rest of us?
I say F*&%K off sckeptis. APSLL do your own thing.. don't let thier scepticism affect you. You know you have a winning system. There is no reasoning with some people. That is the way it is. I got a guy that want's me to work for him at Primerica and he's convinced that I can't do what I'm dong because that's the crux of his sales pitch and how hes been programed to make a living. He's still hanging on to Citigroup.. becasue he "dosen't do anything short term". It's scary to people that their beliefs might be wrong.. or there could be another way.
In this case I don't know what it is..... BUT IT'S NOT YOUR PROBLEM, it 's their problem.
that is all i'm trying to say with out spelling it out and getting a Worden wrist slap myself.
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It is not a group of people, it is one person. The problem is that he is an enigma. I have always thought of him as an acomplished trader. In fact when I have read some of his pics from the past he does know his stuff, he does not trade with indicators as heavily as I do but he is a successfull trader.
On the other side of the coin he does not act like other successfull people that I know, I do not need to go into details, you have all read my opinions regarding this fact. So I am torn, do I respect his success and longer experience than I and treat him in kind, or do I rebel against his repugnant personality, and pompus attitude. Most of you know that I have chosen the latter in recent history, but he is like a serial killer that will stock you and drive you insane.
Oh well it is my problem and I will have to face Darth Vader alone before I am to become a jedi....
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Well Done Apsll.... I like you way of trading.. this days im bit slow.. im watching for right time to get in...
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Apsll.. from one that is new to trading but a 30 year veteran of the contracting business .. who was told I couldn't succede with innovative methods ... belief in yourself and your methods is paramount. You have both qualities. Do not let others that can't have the vision you posses be a deterrence. Keep the posts coming, Many on this site, myself included, find them infomative , educational and profitable. It is very unselfish of you to take the time to publish your stratagies. I have certainly enjoyed AMD, HOTT and VLCM since 1/22
Thank you
emce
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Apsll, I agree with everyone else. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us all. I am very new to this but feel like I am getting a leg up because of what you have shared. The simpler and more basic the better for some of us. I am reading, observing, and yes lurking in the background trying to understand everything you (and others) do and tell us. Keep up the good work. I really appreciate it. I am still paper trading, but just got the pieces in place for your Bounce Strategy and am excited to death about it. I hope you have the time to go through some more of your trades in detail as you have done during the past few days. Thanks. As far as your enigma, I say ignore it. Most of us have. May the Force be with you.
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Apsll, add another vote of thanks, I am learning much from your examples, Strategy, chart reading and writing pcfs. Ignore the one, listen to the many. Thanks also to all those who share there formulas and strategeys. I hope to learn much from all of you. HH
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Really, ah! Well would you please show everyone a screen shot of your history statement from your trades via your history or order status window - showing date, time, description, amount and net.
And don't forget the adiitional information as transaction ID, commission, and sales fee.
Then we can all see your real trades.
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NONE OF US CARE TO SEE THAT CRAP ! Apsll has not EVER shown him self to be dishonest so why would we suspect it now? He has outlined a system or aproach that he believes works and aparently does work for him.. and a few people folowing it have seen some of the stocks do well.
Why is it WHATEVER IS SAID you've got a counter and condecending remark for it. But rarely if ever do you offer any real support, guidence or clear explination of your side of the argument.. we're all to stupid for you to waste you time with it right? If we cant see it we wont see and were just poor foder for you good traders?
WHERE ARE YOUR TRADES WITH exact transaction numbers, times, tickers and comissions for any strategy you think is worth while? Oh wait we gotta go to your web site and become members and pay for them. I wonder, are you as condecending with your clients as you are here ? ? ? becasue I bet you run allot of them off. if you're so good and have such a proffitable method and so many students that love your service you wouldn't have time to come and lurk here and stir up crap that is just silly and assanine. You could have farmed a few clients here were you not so irritating, condecending and unsociable.
Damnit I'm derailing this thread... all my talk about ignoring the distractions and not letting it get to you etc etc.
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QUOTE (BigBlock) Really, ah! Well would you please show everyone a screen shot of your history statement from your trades via your history or order status window - showing date, time, description, amount and net.
And don't forget the adiitional information as transaction ID, commission, and sales fee.
Then we can all see your real trades.
You forgot to include account number and pass codes.
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Hey Scott what are you Aspll's guard angel? I am not the one here claiming and liying to folks about trades. He may fool you, but he sure will not fool me.
When I claim any specific trade I will show you the info.
By the way, account numbers are sort of accessible information - but without the passwor you can't do anything with that info. Besides I didn't mention passwds anywhere did I?
Just a record of what he claim - no too much to ask. It will probably take shorter time to prepare that than the the time it takes him to prepare his lively charts with all the gadgets.
Other wise don't post specific trades that you can't back. I don't see anyone here posting specific trades and making the claims he has.
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QUOTE (BigBlock)
Hey Scott what are you Aspll's guard angel? I am not the one here claiming and liying to folks about trades. He may fool you, but he sure will not fool me.
By the way, account numbers are sort of accessible information - but without the passwor you can't do anything with that info. Besides I didn't mention passwds anywhere did I?
Just a record of what he claim - no too much to ask. It will probably take shorter time to prepare that than the the time it takes him to prepare his lively charts with all the gadgets.Other wise don't post specific trades that you can't back.
I don't see anyone here posting specific trades and making the claims he has.
No .. but I like APSLL and I like his threads and I'd hate to see it go the way of the do do. I already know of one other trader who wanted to give the forum a break because of the personalities developing here. That is a shame becasue those two Apsll and the other are genuinely good worden comunity members.
And enough is enough !
I am not the one here claiming and liying to folks about trades. He may fool you, but he sure will not fool me. Prove it ! go ahead and knock your self out ! This should be good.
you didn't mentions password.. that was a joke.. sarcasm.
"Just a record of what he claim - no too much to ask. It will probably take shorter time to prepare that than the the time it takes him to prepare his lively charts with all the gadgets."
personaly I think the records he gave were fine... the visuals help, being a visual person myself saves me the trouble of dragging up the charts. And looking at it all. But then again I trust him. And any way I have my main methods I developed that are working well for me.. so this is not a main strategy i'm betting the farm on. I've had a few ideas for a bounce strategy myself.. maybee i should develope it, back test is and watch you turn blue in the face telling me it's not proffitable .... while I whistle my way to the bank with it's proffits.
mean while you are wasting time convincing me that my methods will not work and that i'm misleading other traders than to work your own system.. which is so proffitable. I enjoy trading but I can think of a thousand things Id rather be doing. To be honest if it were possible to program a high reward strategy into a computer (which it is now) and I knew a mechanical strategy I was comfortable with letting go of the wheel on .. I'd do it.. i'd spend my days with my daughter, at the zoo, traveling, fencing, sculpting fishing, building furniture... I could go on and on. I dont' get up in the morning and think "I can't wait to get knee deep into charts and spend the day there". Ok I do like charts but not THAT much. give me the choice of wading through a full scan or gonig for a quick paddle.. and I'll take the paddle.
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OH no Scottnlena! I am not convincing you or anything. YOu are convincing yourself.
Like I said we are all adults to make our choices. YOu make yours, I make mine, and others will make theirs.
In the main time get a grip.
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Joined: 1/28/2005
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Can we start discussing brain surgery here?
I to would like to become expert on what I don't
know and don't understand.
Even though I have no operating room experience
and no medical training I will "take on all surgeons".
(of course it will be just my opinion)
Thanks
diceman
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Joined: 6/22/2005
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Ah bigblock you finally showed up, I don't profess to be a great trader and so far neither has apsll and by the way I have been to your web site. Problem is I can't do business with People who are always looking to tear someone apart, as a business man who reached his long term goal of retirement by 45 by building my business to one of the best in Atlanta and then selling, I never and I mean never said anything bad about my competition or about the people I worked with, I found that positive Actions always produce better results and cause people to want to use your services and in the long term create a strong business. Good luck my friend and I hope you use some of this advise in your business.
iwanaphish
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