Looking at the chart above ...proportionately speaking we haven't really done anything as bad as the decline in 2006.  My main confusion is that if all the negative press is suposed to be a positive sign... then ? ? ?  ? ?  We are still with in you'r rising wedge.

Also I recently read Williams "The Right Stock at the Right Time".  It was written years ago but he called the 2003 bottom and the 2005 buy point (as an investor timing).  He calls for a significant buy ponit att he end of 2007.  however the end of 2009-2012 could marke a more serious decline.  He bases this on a 10 year and a 4 year cycle that interact with each other.  I'm not saying that this is what is gonig to happen but that is will be interesting to watch unfold.  We could get some sidewayse action from here... which would help adjust out the angle of ascent to the indexes (technicaly speaking).

As far as not shorting anything.  There are the inverse ETF's.  David John hall has mentiond a strategic idea of this that would center around the ETF's of the indexes ... mostly to avoid gaps, earnings suprises etc etc.  ANd I assume working back and forth between the apropriate ETF.

I'm amazed that I saw that last decline coming and went to mostly cash.. then saw this one coming but reasoned that it couldn't be bad becasue we just had a decline..... So.  I haven't been killed yet but i've wiped out last couple of months of gains in whipsaws and over held positions.  I'm confidant that my strategy will work.. in a good market.. it was working quite well but there is to much negative energy that has been building for a while.  Dont forge that right before the tech runup there was a similar rising wedge that aparently had a down side breakout and then quickly reversed.

I'm not certain what is going on witht he fundamental economics of the country.... but I think Reality check is right .. we have had an uncanny ability to "dodge bullets" and excessive doom and gloom shoud be cautioned against.  I also read about an indicator called "Advisor Sentiment index" that is created by poling X number of advisors... and ironically it works in reverse... this group of people is often wrong more than they are right... so excessive bearishness by them... reflected on the index should be taken as bullishness.  Then there is another one called the "Odd Lot short sale index" ...... which tracks the amount of odd lot short sales some how...These are all fundamentaly based indicators... nothing calculated from onscreen data by the way.  I've had a hard time finding a free source for them but I knwo that a company caleld "Genessis market data" or something like that has this.  IBD used to carry it but droped it. Any way the public trader can be counted on to be the last to the party and when their selling short activity spikes you generaly can start looking for the bottom.  I have no idea what those indicators are reading now BUT i'd hazzard a guess at the Advisor Sentiment index.  Read any positive headlines lately ?

Finaly .. While it's more difficult to find what will move up during a bear.. I think. There will generaly alwayse be someting that moves up... some companies will benefit from the current conditions.  My first attempt at this didn't go quite as planned and it cost me $1400 to make $600 in stopouts but Ithink what is clear is that utilities are looking to me like theyare about to put on a show for us.  I'm coming across more and more thta have interesting looking bottoms that are either complete or compleeting.  SCG, EE, IDA, CNP AHS
RDNT
CPWR

Some would say that gold is a good bet during tough times.. but i'm not so certain... in Williams book I just finished he shows several examples where gold fell along iwth the market during an intermediate term decline... so tht is not necessarily true.  Ihavent checked yet but I think some of the T-Bills/bonds are starting to climb.. There are ETF's to trade these through and Williams shows several examples where a market reversal is procedd by a Bond rally.. so it will be interestingto see how that plays out.  I'm not certain that i'm tracking the right items in TC as I know little about the bond markes.  Reguradelss this will be a great learning and observing experience.

Apsil,

My suggestion, for what it is worth, is to take a step back.  Take a break and collect your thoughts.  Enjoy the holidays.  If you continue to trade, cut your size in half.  You appear to be worried about things that are so complex that none of us can truly understand and are completely out of our control.  Your gut feeling about future economic issues my be 100% right on target.  Or they may be 100% wrong.  

One thing you might want to consider, is that we can no longer look at the US economy in a vacume.  We must look at the global economy as a whole.  Many of our "blue chip" companies are multinational and a significant portion of their earnings come from outside the US.  Thus, even though the US ecomomy might tank, we need to figure out what role the rest of the world will play.  

It would not surprise me if we enter a bear market -- I think it is long overdue.  However, I have been thinking that for a while and have been proven wrong (or maybe just early).  Best thing to do is prepare for both possibilities, watch you charts and scans, and act accordingly.  Based on the S&P, I think we are getting close to a decision point.  We are just on the long term trendline from the 2003 lows.  The March and August lows are about 1364 & 1370.  Thus, it looks like we have another 3.5% to play with.    Good luck. 

Damnit.. I had a big long post that was droped and I forgot to copy it to my clip board.

In a nut shelll.. I disagreed with Reality check ont he viability of alternatives... stated that there is sufficient evidence that it has been blocked for some time in this country... Evidence Isreal and Japan.  Any one ever see "who killed the electric car"?.  it's rentable at blockbuster or NETFLIX.  Very interesting.

Stated that western world seems to like to see Arab Terrorists as some turbined,  iliterate village idiot with an anger management problem.. not usually the case.  Went into reant about american blind endorsement of any thing Isreal does and how it's gonna cost us.  Spoke abit about a website called "if americans knew . com" or somethign like that.  Independant journalism on the west bank violation of human rights of palestinians by the Isrealies.  Blah blah blah.. Arabs tend to be Muslims before they are arabs etc etc etc.  Went on my rant that if you really want to get scared about the economy read Paul Kenedys "Rise and Fall of the Great Powers".. and Leo Gumilev's "Ethnogenisis in the Biosphere" (if you can find an english copy... google him there are aseom translated sections on line I'm shure).

Why couldn't there be another 1929?  What was the pivotal point that caused that?  I know the history books talk allot about credit with farmers or something.. need to look it up myself as I've forgotten.  I'm shure there were other factors.  All things cycle etc etc.. some peaks and troughs are extreeme... that is the way it is. Eventually we'll have a bad one again.

I thought Driger made a great and funny point.  And asked some questions as to whether there was a fundamental reason for oil running up so high or if it's all speculation.. personaly I think there is plenty of oil.  But reguardless in the coming years I think well see much (not all) of it's use displaced by other forms of energy.

that is it in gist.  I really hate it when the posts get dropped... what causes that?

Realitycheck, my congratulations to your son.  I don’t know if he is still in the Marines, but if he is, I wish him well.  You sound very proud as you should be.  The Marines have a great saying:  “Pain is just weakness leaving the body”.  I sense you served your country at one time also.  Are you a Viet Nam vet?  I served as a LT in the Navy from ‘71-‘75.  My last duty station was the Orlando Naval Hospital.  In fact, that’s where my son was born.  He’s now a Naval Aviator.  He flies the F-18F Super Hornet and has had 3 tours of duty in Iraq.  He was the LSO who landed President Bush on the USS Abraham Lincoln on May 1, 2003.

On to another subject, I don’t know if many of you were around in the 70’s, but we had an energy crisis back then too.  In fact, most of us experienced long lines at gas stations because of the oil shortages…....something we haven’t experienced yet during the current energy crisis.

In 1978 the National Energy Act was passed, including conservation incentives and taxes, and limits for the use of oil and gas in electrical generation. 

This led to more awareness and exploration of alternative energy sources such as:

• solar energy (commercial, solar thermal conversion, photovoltaic cells)
• wind power
• tidal power
• ocean thermal conversion
• biomass
• geothermal energy
• conversion of coal into gas
• extraction of oil from tar sands
• efforts at tertiary recovery from oil deposits

Does any of this sound familiar guys?  Yea, we’re just repeating history again.  Those of us who believed the government would actually resolve the energy issue in a few years have grown to realize that BOTH Democrats and Republicans are guilty of getting us into this mess again…….and all of their rhetoric today is just a lot of hot air used to boost their own personal political agendas, not the well being of the American people.

If I sound a bit disgruntled with politicians, well you’re right.  I’ve worked with enough of them over the years to be very wary of them all.  Let’s put this into perspective for a moment.  How many of you would actually consider hiring any of our Washington political leaders to run your own business or company?  Not many I bet.  If you did, your company would probably go chapter 7 or 11 in very short order.  

survivor

Reality I am afraid that if the US ever try to tap into the Oil reserves of Iraq by the use of force that would very negatively impact the US in every aspect economic and political, as well as globe social relations.  
And remember every relation that the US takes down, China will revive for their own interest.  Venezuela is keeping a close eye on US, and Chavez is crazy enought and hates US with all his guts - I am positive he would shut down supply making in that way oil price to sky rocket.  He has in fact already said that if the US ever tough IRAN that which I said would just happen.  Things can get  a lot uglier than they are currently.
For one thing the world as a whole would confirm what everybody else in this globe thought  - that the Iraq preemptive attack was just about oil, and nothing else - the rest were excuses to get there fast.
Second, I can assure you that every drop of that oil would equal to 10 drops of blood - the resistant there will rather burned all down that let the US take it - I think that was in the recent past.
I think the US needs to start getting on line.

I have a lot of Venezuelans living around me here in south FL.  In fact, the South Americans and Europeans are about the only ones buying homes here.  The Venezuelans have nothing good to say about Chavez and what he has done to their country.  Much like Castro and what he did to Cuba.

We currently import a great deal of oil from Venezuela (Citgo service stations).  If the oil from there stops, the gas lines will return, no doubt about it.  Yet people continue to buy Hummers and such.  Go figure.

Concerning Iran, President Ahmadinejad is a huge threat to world peace.  He thinks and speaks much like Adolf Hitler did……..but Hitler failed to obtain nuclear weapons primarily because of our military and the will of the American people to defeat him.  Should Amadinajad acquire nuclear weapons, odds are he will nuke Israel and he clearly will take over the entire middle east…….with all its oil.  Pretty scary thought isn’t it?

So what should America do?  Hopefully diplomacy can make some headway here, but that just isn’t what history teaches us is the probable outcome when dealing with fanatics.  This issue will probably not come to a head during the next year, but rather will be a primary issue for the next administration. 

China is another matter altogether.  Many of you may not be aware of their growing military force.  They now have far more fighter jets, subs, destroyers etc than do we.  Someone on this thread mentioned Taiwan.  Yep, that too will be a major issue for the next administration because China is hell bent on taking over Taiwan.  Another topic is the oil fields in Russia, just north of China.  When China becomes a greater fossil fuel guzzler than she is now, have you given any thought to the possibility of her military actions into Russia?  The US may end up becoming an ally of Russia in such an event.  My sources tell me 2009-2011 will most likely be the most critical point in our history.  Perhaps that time line links up somehow with what Scott was telling us he read in the Williams book.

I pray that we elect the very best candidate to become our next President.  We need someone who has the communication skills, common sense and positive attitude of Ronald Regan.  No matter how much the far-left media liked to bad-mouth him, he gave our country back hope.  Something that Presidents Johnson, Nixon and Carter had totally destroyed during those turbulent years of the 60’s and 70’s. 

The American people will rise up to any occasion.  They always have and they always will.  Just as the markets always turn back up after these temporary pullbacks.
 

I know one thing for certain, it feels damn good to be alive and living in America.

Have a terrific Thanksgiving everyone. 

survivor

Although it seems that the financial institutions are doing their best to lobby for a delay in the implementation .... imagine that ?

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/54377-fasb-157-delayed-or-not

Everyone wants to put off "judgement day" as long as they can ...

guys.. it's thanks giving ! !   Oh hell i'm here too.  Hope you all had a good thanks giving.

"Now then ... how long until the regular guy has one ?" - - - - I dunno but it's sweet.. Maybee i'll treat myself  with next years trading proffits .  so cynical... Look at what it represents.  It acutally out performs the EV1 and looks a hell of allot cooler.  I think the main thing with the EV1 is that the auto companeis didn't want to sell it.... at every stage they faught it, made it ugly, etc etc.  But they were forced to make them for that small test market.  The thing was those were the known companies. specalizing in the combustion engines. This looks like a new company  that hopefully will specalize in this.  i think it's exciting.  Yea I won't be buying one for a while (crap!) but I would if I could... and that is where it starts.  Do you own a DVD player reality check? ?  My roomate got one of the first DVD players available.  it was swet.  Had features that they don't have now.  BUT what they do have now is a good price and mass apeal.  this car I bet dosent cost that much to produce.. but it's a "luxury/novelty item" and consumers, particularily the groupe that has to have the hottest newest gadget , can afford this sort of excentricity..... and they get squeezed ... then the next consumer group is in the cross hairs.... You and I.  Some design changes are made.. maybee a few luxury features dropped and it's set for mass production.  I see this and think that Tesla motors may be a name we are hearing allot more of inthe future... my 5 months old daughter may drive an electric car to college.  I think it's cool.  Look how many american car manufactures have come and gone...What happened to Hudson, those were cool cars.  Especially the truck.. a neighbor has one restored.  I'm just saying .. things change.  Also huge advancements have and are being made in batteries, in fuelcells ... many of which are yet to be incorporated into a complete product.

"For one thing the world as a whole would confirm what everybody else in this globe thought  - that the Iraq preemptive attack was just about oil, and nothing else - the rest were excuses to get there fast." ---- Uhhh ? ?   Welll.. ok. If actions speak louder than words... What was the action of our military after we had taken away power, running water, comunication from Iraq.  We care so much about the poor Iraqi people under the thumb of their dictator, because we hate dictators(those that have things we want any way... other dictators are ok.. even now well deal with dictators), that we didn't imediately set up and repair the hospitals, get the water running agian, and bring in medicines .  Nope we secured the oil fields.  And then things began to fall apart.  if we ar nto there for oil.. what are we there for?  WMD's ?  right.  BUT strategically it's a great way for us to bleed our selves.  I wonder sometimes if  Washington didn't fall for a bait and get drug by their lips into this.  Any of you guys ever play simple games llike "Age of Empires"... I love those games... and they teacha simple lesson. War is about money and recources and the way to beat the computer.. who seems to alwasye get the jump on you in terms of tech advancement...is to make your enemy expend his recources... then go on the attack.  I could fill pages and bore and or infuraite some of you with this and that book including conversations with my father in law, a retired full colonel in the soviet military.  

Allies with Russia, it wouldn't be the first time ... and comunism and Putin aside they are a great people.. IMO worht fighting with.  Thought curently nearly drained by Chechnia and their recent economic colapses... they aren't going o be able to put up a real fight to anyone for a long time.

Survivor:  I admire patriots.. and am generaly one.  My wife and I would rather live nowhere else, (well I wouldn't mind western Europe) despite my cynical views of the flaws in our government... they exist everywhere.  However it saddens me in a way to hear statements that lead to the idea that the USA won the war against Hitler single handedly. The fact is we were the last in ... and we weren't the only combatants, and in terms of lives lost in the cause we can't compare to some of the other nations.  I think the biggest culprit to spreading this idea is politics of the time.  Most accedimic historians will agree that Germany's back had been broken when we entered the western front.  

David John Hall.. nice charts and explinations..Oh .. I take no credit for the 4 year cycle thing.. Just bringing up what I have read by other people.