Registered User
Joined: 5/2/2007
Posts: 59
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Good Morning Everyone,
i'll get straight to the point, im not so familiar with chart patterns but i have alot of them for spotting bulls and bearish set ups, alot(actually i've only used afew not even knowing what they really were except that it was a set up i was told) M for "Murder" = Run if you are long or rejoice if you are Shorting, same with W = win.... you get where i come from, so now there are heramis,double rolling this, bull dog that...... ok on a serious note What patterns pull up the most stocks(on both sides,bulls and bears)? or should i say are more reliable,throughout the posts i've seen people say" i then look for patterns X,Y Z". please help, cuz i got patterns cluttering my hard drive and some require more than a year's worth of data(picture my updating)last time i tried all of them, most were bringing up nothing, some so few.I don't know which ones to keep and which one's to get rid of, i wanna keep about 5 or 6 on either side.
I maybe wordy but you get the point, any suggestions?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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There are a lot of patterns and PCF's.
Boolean PCFs for Candlestick Patterns
PCFs and EasyScans for Candlestick Patterns
Aside from the patterns you just have to be able to interpret what the candlesticks are telling you in reference to the over-all chart pattern. Most of the time it is not about the actual candle stick pattern.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/2/2007
Posts: 59
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Apsll, thanks for the input,
im from the TIP3 school, Trend, Indicator,Price,People(Vol),Pattern say the Trend is Bullish, i got 3 buy indicators,Price is C>C1>C2,same with People(V>V1>V2) so now what im left with is pattern to confirm my buy, i know there about about 6 most important/reliable patterns for buys (including double bottoms) so is for Bearish set ups, which are those?
Ohh as for the Patterns themselves im familiar with a few but i don't know them as falling stars. 3 soldiers, herami's..... i know them as double tops, double bottoms, ascending triangles.....
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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You cannot get that info from me, I am not an avid candlestick pattern user, as I stated above I use candles as a way to interpret price action and that is all. You might want to buy some reading material on this subject. This forum is not the venue for that type of in-depth education. (check out google.com).
I will say that the hanging man or revers hammer at the top of an up-trend is a good exit signal, and at the bottom of a down-trend it can be a good entry signal.
One other thing to keep in mind is that there is a degree of failure involved with any of these patterns they do not always work the way you want them to, so you will also need to have some trade managment skills..
Good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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just FYI I like only a few... there are tons. And allot of the patterns you are mentioning 1BTRADER are larger formations, double tops bottoms etc.
Candle patterns are generaly 1-3 day formations. Prsonaly I think it is important to know the overarching pattern that your candle formation forms with in. I dont bother scanning for this pattern or that patterns any more.... Just learns the ones I felt comfortable with and that seemed to be the most affective for meand stick with those. The rest is candle logic and theory.... I've got a few that trade and dont know the names to.
I scan based on various assumptions of signs of strength defined through indicators and then look for candle patterns that I can enter on.
I personaly like the Engulfing and peircing patterns, Dark clouds and white clouds... the springboard and the prespring board (catch it before the pop), dragons and a doji after a significant up day as a continuation signal (during a bull).
you could follow APSLL's link above and then make 5true indicators for the various ones you like and just make observations about theones that seem the most reliable and in which conditions they seem to be reliable. I made an Excel sheet to track and chart the information as it came in but I was working with various indictor signals. Started doing it for candles and had to put it aside and never got back to it.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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sorry that should be "% true" not "5true"
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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BigBlock
I don’t remember any of your comments as being positive and supportive. They have all been in the vein of “What ever it is that you are doing, it’s wrong.” and the implication is that “You might as well give up.” You don’t give any reasons, just flat statements.
Many years ago a man for whom I have a lot of respect said to me “If, on the road to the mountain, you meet the guru, kill the SOB and move on.”
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Market Timing With Candlestick Technical Analysis
BEN R. MARSHALL
Massey University - Department of Finance, Banking and Property Studies
MARTIN R. YOUNG
Massey University - Department of Finance, Banking and Property Studies
LAWRENCE C. ROSE
Massey University - Department of Commerce
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
April 16, 2007
Abstract:
We investigate the profitability of the quantitative market timing technique of candlestick technical analysis in the U.S. equity market. Despite being used for centuries in Japan and now having a wide following amongst market practitioners globally, there is little research documenting its profitability or otherwise. We find that these strategies are not generally profitable when applied to large U.S. stocks. Basing trading decisions solely on these techniques does not seem sensible but we cannot rule out the possibility that they compliment some other market timing techniques.
Keywords: Market Timing, Candlesticks, Technical Analysis, Quantitative Investment
JEL Classifications: G12, G14
Working Paper Series
Also 15 patterns of the most prominent patterns found in Nilson's book were tested via a standard internet source for candlestick analysis - litwick dot com. For a period from 1995 to 2001. Of 15 tested patterns only 4 came up with results in the direction of traditinal candle interpretation. None of the patterns was statistically significant at the usual 1 in 20 levels typically used by researchers as the minimum cut off for determining whether the phenomenon was consistent with merer chance variations. The validity of the Japanese candlestick analysis failed to prove itself profitable.
I have personally used candlesticks for many years and can personally tell you that they are not a profitable technique. I still use candlesticks to read my charts because it makes easier to read charts, but pay absolutelly no attention to formations.
I am not going to give you here all the studies available, but will recommend to you to read a book called "Practical Speculation". It will open up your eyes.
The only people that would tell you otherwise are either selling a product that uses candlesticks, or selling the candles themselves. And of course they are the only ones getting rich.
You can do as you wish so. If you feel they are making you money - good go ahead and use them. My advice is that you would do as well flipping a coin.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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By the way Bcraig who are you to qualify my comments? You think that by being supportive or positive I would have been doing a better service to the topic author.
Exposing the truth is not always the easiest, but necessary.
I gave the guy, and the rest of you an honest opinion. It is up to you to do whatever you want with such an information.
If you prefer to take the advice of the man for whom you had so much respect, be my guest. No hard feelings here.
And please I think I have already have to say this in the last few days at least twice - concentrate on the topic and leave the writters out of the equation.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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bigblock...
candles seem to work for me... but if you read other posts of mine I say that they are nothing important in and of them selves. They give me something to focus in on and clear entry points for my entry philosophy.
"Basing trading decisions solely on these techniques does not seem sensible but we cannot rule out the possibility that they compliment some other market timing techniques. "
I don't think anyone here would advocate creating a scan for say bullish engulfings and buy them on that criteria alone. However a bullish engulfing after 10 of negative price percent change and a stochastics reading of Sk recently crossed above SD with a positive tsv or MS divergence does make sense. Possibly the candle in and of it's self in the big picture is worthless but it gives me atleast a visual ctch and a bit of what I feel is a glimpse into short term trading barometer. I know that the previous session at least Bulls wrenched power away from the bears depending on other things in the picture I may decide it's a good candle to enter on. You may notice that I also suggested that the original poster create % true indicators and play with them to discover the probabilities and their affects in certain contexts.
also, and I can't quote them becasue they arent on my shelf any more, but here are a couple of books where the various probabilities of various candle signals were researched and outlined. The results varied depending on cndle signal, what market it came in and in what context it was found. Some of those results were worth paying attention to. Any thing that give a person more than 50% is good in my book'
Argh.. gotta go .. little one calling. I'll finish my thought later.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Well in a nut shell ther are allot of people who use candles either extensively or to some degree sucessfuly. I am one of them.
Admittedly the daily candle view needs to be taken with a grain of salt for the longer term holder. simply because so often two dayse after a glaring exit signal price will recover and move on further...but then for longer terms you'r more interested in a bigger picture anyway. Short term i like them. The only thing I think bar charts have over candles is that more fit on a screen giveing you acess to greater data... BUT candles are, generaly speaking, easier to see and quickly understand the action of the day.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/2/2007
Posts: 59
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WoW, I wanna put faces to all these user names, because by now im getting to know people one at a time,your characotrs, who is helpful, who knows what.....and of course the Nay sayers,its an open forum and everyone is free to chip in whatever they feel is helpful remember "stock market talk" But as a reader of other people's posts too i don't agree with whatever is said, i pick out what applicable in my view and move on. as for “If, on the road to the mountain, you meet the guru, kill the SOB and move on.” ,that true too bad it had to be you BigBlock (as he put it)you didn't explain why they don't work.
Jesus ! i'm turning into DR Phil here, i hope a little bit of my marketing side(practical,not degrees) isn't kicking in here,but yeah last thing i wanna see is people arguing.
I know there are some newbies here as i am too,PLEASE, trust the little you know and move on or else you are gonna spend the next 5 years listening to people, he said she said, Learn a strategy,yup off of here master it, go use it,fail come ask for ways of tweaking it,try it again till it works(its called paper trading) ,learn a new one.....,Ibelieve each of the 1000 or so people on here has his/her trading style so u won't learn all of them.OK enough on my part i guess i went past what the threat was started for.
Thank you all for the inputs.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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" You are wasting your time - as it has been proven over and over the candlesticks don't give you any advantage "
Who proved it? Bigblock you can quote all the Ben R. Marshalls and Lawrence c. Roses that you want to. I prove every day that they do work. My growing portfolio is the only quotes that I need to list. And Bcraig has every right to qualify your comments, (he does not agree with you) He is just as qualified to do so as you are to bore us all to death with your warped views on microeconomics and pronouncements of doom on the horizon.
What qualifies you to churn out your distorted rabble based on your opinions. Just because you post your little clippings from your favorite soapbox denouncer does not make you right (there are others out there more qualified than you or your cronies that will take the opposite side to your pronouncements).
No one says that you cannot have your say and that you cannot express your views in the form of last nights magazine article that you clipped out to show us all how wrong we are about stocks, politics, and the economy.
But every one here on this forum is equally qualified and empowered to rebut you any time they choose.
If you cannot back up your negative statements with reason and fact. Then why bother to at all. Do you think that we all will just take your bitter pills in good faith because you have some kind of degree and you know more about everything than all of us.
You need some major work on your social graces. Why do you think that you are always at odds with most of us here? I already know the answer to that question; maybe I should not have even asked..
(IMO)
Apsll.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Like I said - "It is up to you to do whatever you want with such an information".
Why am i at odds with most here?? - that could easily be anwered, but will leave it for a different time, different place.
I should also mention why is it that most commoners I speak to seem to be losing money in stocks, or have cash invested that goes nowhere??
Perhaps those 2 questions are related - think about it.
good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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"I should also mention why is it that most commoners I speak to seem to be losing money in stocks, or have cash invested that goes nowhere??"
I didn't realize we were amongst nobility 
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Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
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Speaking of clippings there's an excellent article on the use of candlesticks in this months Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodiities. The article focused primarily on the 3 black crows pattern but also spoke to the recent scrutiny of candlesticks as a viable trading method. According to the article, one of many no doubt, it seems that, on their own, candlesticks do not produce a significant edge by which to profit. However, used at the right time and in the right way they do produce insight into upcomming price movement, which, I believe, is all you can ask of any indicator.
It is obvious to me from reading Apsll's posts that 1) he knows how to formulate a well constructed and sharp argument (good job) and 2) he obviously knows the best time and place to use candlesticks. If I were approaching a group of traders about the validity of a trading approach I might listen much more closely and model the trader who has created a working (profitable) method in regards to the strategy in question. It would also be wise, I think, to take into consideration arguments to the contrary should they be presented positively and with the best interests for all in mind.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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David, good morning to you. I have read the article in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodiities magazine- Counting Crows. Hohandy, Diceman and myself were discussing it in the following thread -
Sir Fan-Pattern
I want to make it more clear that I do not actually rely on candlestick patterns. Although there are some (very few) that I find to be reliable. I use candles more as an alternative to other price graph types (line or bar). I find that price movments are easier to interpret in reference to the over-all chart pattern. Using Candlesticks works for me and that is the only fact that I can present.
I might listen much more closely and model the trader who has created a working (profitable) method in regards to the strategy in question. It would also be wise, I think, to take into consideration arguments to the contrary should they be presented positively and with the best interests for all in mind. Your statement is very well presented and I would put an emphasis on your last sentence.
Thanks.
Apsll..
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Registered User
Joined: 5/15/2007
Posts: 18
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1btrader.. I have recently read several books by Thomas Bulkowski on what you are looking for and that is chart patterns, not candlestick patterns.. huge difference. Anyway, he has done extensive research on the subject and how to trade patterns successfully. I find that head and shoulders bottoms and double bottoms work best for me especially if the stock is pretty far from it's 52 week high. It has to have somewhere to go or something driving the price higher.
There are literally hundreds of ways to make money in the stock market and just as many ways to lose money. I don't listen to people like Big Block. If he was so All knowing he wouldn't be lurking here everyday so he obviously isn't any sort of authority on Trading Stocks.
After the big August Sell Off, I wanted to see how much I could profit from it, so I opened a paper trade account Bought as much Dell at 26.02 a share, AAPl at 118.65, The VM Ware IPO at 52.90 INTC at 23.15. I don't need candlesticks or chart pattern or block heads to tell me that those are cheap prices on very good stocks and If I buy them cheap I will make money. Too bad there aren't this many no brainers in the stock market. VM Ware has moved up 16 points, apple 20 points, intel 2.5, dell 2.5 etc.. Then Again some people only buy after big sell offs. It's pretty easy to profit that way. I am trying to build wealth and live off dividends when I'm an old man which you don't do over night.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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gmnash2000 - what is your definition of a stock authority?
What is a stock authority?
So you agree with me that there is actually much more inside in other tools like chart patters than in just candle sticks. Good.
You buy the sell offs... Good.
May be you and I have more in common than you think.
Do 17 yrs of market exposure qualify you as stock authority - almost 10 of those as a daytrader??
Does turning a $2000 account into over 2,000,0000 qualify you as stock authority?
Does the capability of knowledge in creating a real trading system that is 90% efficient as (removed by Moderator) qualify you as stock authority?
Please enligthen me, I really like to know the your definition of stock authority.
Just hope your definition of stock authority isn't Cramer.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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"If he was so All knowing he wouldn't be lurking here everyday so he obviously isn't any sort of authority on Trading Stocks."
you are probably right... I didn't start lurking here till I started having trouble with my trading.... and those stretched where i'm nowhere to be found, i'm either away or doing quite well and to busy to make it here, in general. that said the folks here have greatly helped me increase my knowledge of trading thoughts concepts and strategies.
big block
does oasis deal mostly with options picks and strategies?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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"If he was so All knowing he wouldn't be lurking here everyday so he obviously isn't any sort of authority on Trading Stocks"
There are many that lerk here daily that are very knowledgable. Diceman, Memorableproducts and yes Bigblock. In the good old days there was HNC, Kokoda, Tobydad.... I myself come here for the camaraderie and to share knowledge with others that share my passion for trading stocks. There is no one Authority on stocks. Trading is an everchanging landscape and one would do well just to be able to go with the flow.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Did I ever ask anyone for advice or picks?
I am certainly always open to opinions on all matters. In fact the reason why I can here mostly besides helping - is for debate.
But I would never take a pick from anyone, just not my style or inclination.
I come here occassionaly to help - not to be helped.
I really have no need to lurk (as you call it)around here.
You may think as you please, be my guest.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/15/2007
Posts: 18
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QUOTE (BigBlock) Did I ever ask anyone for advice or picks?
I am certainly always open to opinions on all matters. In fact the reason why I can here mostly besides helping - is for debate.
But I would never take a pick from anyone, just not my style or inclination.
I come here occassionaly to help - not to be helped.
I really have no need to lurk (as you call it)around here.
You may think as you please, be my guest.
Big Block,
It's just an observation by more than 1 person that you seem to always criticize people unnecessarily. Rarely giving a contrasting view of why that person is wrong but just saying they're wrong. I am willing to be told I'm wrong if someone gives me some information that I can contemplate otherwise you're just pissing me off. I am not an authority on anything. I am just trying to invest wisely like the rest of us here. In the few months I have been coming here I rarely read anything from you that sounds as if you're trying to share knowledge to help someone else, you just come off like the rest of are clueless. All I said to you was that you weren't an Authority on trading stocks and that are many ways to make $$$ in the market. I wasn't trying to act like I know anything else I wouldn't be coming here trying to learn from the great folks on this board.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Any comments on SWIR (loss about 35%). I think is a great short but....
Did I ever ask anyone for advice or picks?
Lets check out the thread above to see if you have ever asked any questions bigblock.
CMGI - clear doji
ASTM, AND STEM Clear exampleS of positive divergences in ROC, TSV, and MS
Maybe you once even used Candlesticks before they proved that they did not work..
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138
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I just wanted to poke my head in before things got out of hand to mention that we should keep things civil.
-Bruce
Personal Criteria Formulas
TC2000 Support Articles
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Excuse me Apsll.
What advise did I ask in such a post. I basically pointed out an extraordinary gap and ask for general back feed on such. As far as I know that is neither a direct question or a question with a concrete subject
Also as I stated clearly here in this thread that I used candlesticks for yrs - I never said otherwise. In fact, I continue to use them as I also stated, but I just do not paid attention to the formations anymore. They certainly make easier to read charts if you are used to them. Formations in candle sticks do not have a proven track record as many know and proved by know. I always like to see by myself, and therefore went through a long testing usage period. I tested myself and therefore concluded, what I initially pointed to all in this thread.
PLEASE WHY DON'T YOU ALSO TELL FOLKS IN HERE HOW MANY POST I HAVE TO MY ACCOUNT SO THEY CAN WEIGHT OUT YOUR 3 LITTLE REMARKS.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Detovrea,
I have been checking into options as of late, but haven't had all the time i need to check all the ins and outs and to completely understand them. Now let me ask you; for the most part I trade bigblocks of shrs no less than 5000 and on the average 10,000 shrs.
How many contracts of calls will i need to level my trade and how much will that cost me?. Some stocks I trade are going in the $20 range so about $200,000 on the line of fire. Keep in mind that time for me is an issue since I for the most part trade huge percentage of my margin. I am what you call a high risk player. Momentum along with breakouts are my targets - long or short. Most days I am content with taking 0.1 of a point or leaving on the table .05 ( $1000 profit or $500 loss) Since I expose myself big, the only thing I can do to keep playing and to keep my profits is to enforced my stop loss quickly. If the trade goes again me shortly after i am in I get out and wait for another opportunity.
You can consider my technique scalping. Sometimes I ride the stock longer, but only if it jumps enough to get my trailing stop in. Most of the time I close my position or positions by the end of the day. So how can those options help me? Could you explain please? .
You are wasting your time - as it has been proven over and over the candlesticks don't give you any advantage.
good luck
Everyone can see under your sign in name the ammount of post that you have laid on us, they do not need my help.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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You seem so desperate to proof your case that you are digging into the exceptions.
And for all I care you can digg your own hole.
The general case is what I pointed to you; I do not ask questions much if any.
By the way, Apsll, you took the post with Detovrea out of context, as I was trying to weight how the use of options would help me leverage intraday.
I took the time and learned on my own, and now I know. My question couldn't be answered here and so I seeked my own answers.
The fact is that I rarely come here anymore to find knowledge. In the past, may be some -but little.
Not sure what your point is, anyways.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Oh! by the way. Take your time and keep digging. See if you can find a few more needles in the haystack.
Must have a lot of time...
I am to the lake, so see you next week.
Have a pleasant weekend - hopefully not digging.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/2/2007
Posts: 59
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Did i mention that Newbies should Stay away from Gurus(Very different from a Teacher),its like a helpless child seeking approval from an adult which is fine but time comes when that "Young Ault" had got to make his own decisions, once in a while he gets advice here and there BUT he can now think for himself,provide for himself.Someone might ask "what in the world does this have to do with trading?" Well this is starting to looks like "Crunching Tiger" Trading style.
If i may rephrase my question(more like question 2); if say i got my trending signals, price signals,and volume signals(MACD,RSI,BBands,TSV,MAs.......any indicator you can mention) all giving me the ok, why should i bother consulting the "pattern"?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Have a good labor day week end Bigblock. 
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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1btrader, The pattern shows you what phase the stocks cycle is in, analogous to the growth cycle of a living thing.
A baby would be like a bottoming stock
Accumulation would be like feeding the child, and then you monitor its growth pattern. You can tell how old a child is or what phase a stock is in by these patterns.
I hope that this analogy was not to disterbing...
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Registered User
Joined: 5/2/2007
Posts: 59
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Well i meant real babies , i didn't know there is a relationship between Human Growth with these patterns, i'll put that into consideration.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Some people adhere to the idea that teh specific pattern isn't that important. For me they are about clean entries. Example MTL
on 8/30 I bought 200 shares so 8/29 is the day of analysis. Good volume that day and a few consolidation days after the previous move. the other indicators I use said ok so I went. This candle is a white cloud I think... reguardless a bullish signal with out exausting to much energy on the day I found it. I entered a buy .25 over the high and a sell .25 below the low (I don't alwayse enter stops right off the imediate candle... depends on allot of things but I chose this for an easy example) I got in at 41.03 I bought another 100 today at 443.02 and exited the position at $44.14. Todays addition was a bit more speculative so I lowered the number of shares. Beyond this I would consider it "chasing" a stock so it's untouchable by me unless it consolidates again.
Dojis are another great candle to enter off of in the right context. GROW (actually this is a dragon but I see them as cousins)on 8/16 i againentered an order for grow (I trade this one allot in and out), the next day it gapped up and fell into my order buying me at the upper range of my order and fell for the day .. nervy moment. I sold on 8/22 for $22.35 not huge proffit but squireling away a little at a time in this market, trading long in a down market. i had hoped for a bigger move.
GGG I found on 8/29 but was cautious about the magnatude of the move and the market timing. The next day gave me a doji... often touted as a reversal signal... but I find in this context they tend to be continuation rather than reversal.... I pulled the order this morning in favor of an addition to MTL. I would have gone with both but I also had CAL open and didn't want to be scrambling to exit allot of stocks if Bennie said something bad pluss historically Fridays aren't that good to me so I don't do much on Fridays. BUT the day would have been proffitable... at this point I could enter of this candle but I know that my logical suport is further away unless I change strategies and go off this candle .... but this is riskier. I hope it will consolidate a tad here then i'll get in.
CAL I've been watchign for a while now. yesterdays engulfing white, while on low volume was at the lower limit of a decending chanel with a few positive divergences so i entered the order anyway... got out a bit early today but I needed to deal with the baby and we had some errands to run so I closed it. All and all a good day and easier than an honest days work... I made 1/2 my average weekly salary (when I had a job)in the first hour of the day and then took the kid to the park and went shopping.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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"443.02 " should be $43.02
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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"for $22.35 " should be at $22.35 as well... somebody smack me !
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