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Registered User
Joined: 1/22/2007
Posts: 16
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end at. I have 30.00 call options for april.can any great chart reader give me any in sights? thanks
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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That is one ugly chart but at least it's peeking its head out of a 3 mo. base. And there has been some nice high volume green days mixed in with all the red days recently, a real war going on. Since you asked for my shade tree two cents worth I'll say price is gonna take a stab at resistance around the 200-day or 31 area, and who knows after that. Good luck!
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Registered User
Joined: 1/22/2007
Posts: 16
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thanks for your in sight.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/2/2004
Posts: 1,775
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wizetrd, studying the chart more carefully I see another positive. Note the really heavy red volume in January; that was some of the highest selling pressure in a long time, yet price stabilized soon after, like maybe a bottom was put in. I also checked its fundamentals and BJS is very strong there; highly rated industry group it's in, strong earnings history, roe, etc. Somebody though hasn't liked it much past few months, beyond my knowledge of why.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/22/2007
Posts: 16
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thanks fpetry
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 359
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Wizetrd: The shape, as they say, of one mans opinion.
BJS has a nice support line on the monthly chart starting with the lows of 2001 till today. This line has several points of contact. There is also a nice, well defined down trending channel in the last 1 year. Price is near the apex of the triangle formed by the 6 year base and the channels upper line. Any move above 30 will be a breakout of the long triangle.
This is also well defined on the weekly chart. You will notice the down channel is well filled with four strong points of contact at both the support and resistance levels. You can again see the triangle.
Moving to the daily chart, a consolidation from Jan. of this year presents itself again in a nice lateral channel with a clear breakout yesterday and follow up today. A nice pattern on all of these time frames.
I see no resistance to price till the December high of around 34.
Almost textbook example of each time frame supporting the next. Good find.
Mammon
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Registered User
Joined: 1/22/2007
Posts: 16
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thanks mammon. what do you think about my $30.00 calls for april bought them at .40?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
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I have difficulties with considering these kind of energy related stocks on a strict technical basis - so much of their performance seems to be affected by the exogenous factor of the price of oil - which itself may be affected by exogenous factors as Iranians capturing or releasing British soldiers, or civil unrest in Nigeria or the weekly draw-down of fuel stock and whether that beat the Street expectations or whatever. In my mind that stuff always presents a problem and often prevents me from pulling the trigger on a nice looking energy-related chart setup.
Is this a valid observation and does anyone have a way to reconcile it?
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 359
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hohandy, I can but agree with your observation. On the "however" side, the barriers you mentioned to technical analysis for these types of stock are also barriers to fundamental analysis. These same factors you mentioned affect both. I suspect that these exogenous factors affect a great many industries (When it rains in Brazil, buy Starbucks). I have difficulty in reliably factoring in these things.
With technicals, I think that all of these events are factored into the price and the volume by the great stock-buying public and can be viewed as an indisputable fact on the chart. I look at these things with some curiosity but I do not buy, or not buy, based on these things which may not be reflected in the price. I simply do not care why the thing goes up. Or down. Only that it does, for whatever reason.
Large percentages of chart patterns fail, as well as stocks with great fundamentals. The basics still apply, fundamentaly sound stocks in historically good patterns may not be a sure bet, but its the best you can do. Discipline does the rest.
Why anyone would think the destruction of two buildings in New York City would affect the supply/demand for zinc, or whatever, is beyond me. But it did.
Comments, anyone?
Wizetrd, your calls question can be better answered by others than myself
Mammon
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
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BJS is currently in a supply/resistence area between 30.26 and 29.12. Being the first time back to that level since late Dec 06, the probability is it will continue down from that level. If it breaks above, then your next supply/ resistence area is around 32.50. Not much time left for your april call options. Good luck.
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