Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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Gold Weekly
Gold Daily
Diversified Commodities....weekly
Oracle....breakout of long-term huge structure?
more to come...there seems to be a lot of things possibly shaping up at the moment..
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
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Thanks for posting these Ben. Always a pleasure to read your posts.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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Thanks traderm30.
The next few charts are weekly charts of a handful of stocks that look interesting on a little longer time-frame.
Interpret however you like. These charts seem to almost speak for themselves...
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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It looks like quite a few stocks are testing breakout points from the bottom formations that completed last spring, at the beginning of the big rally! (Like WFT, JCP) This is like a second chance to go back and invest at those levels!
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Registered User
Joined: 2/1/2010
Posts: 37
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ben2k9,
I was in WFT til Friday when I was stoped out on a trailing stop at 16.50. I was fortunate to enter a position at 14.78 on Feb 5- a nice 10% return. I still like WFT if it clears resistance at 16.72, if it does, it may try to close that little gap up to 17.67.
WFT has been in a nice downtrending channel since July, and has successfully held the trand line support in early Dec., and then in Early February. Good trading...
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
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Nice, observations. I almost posted the JCP. Thanks for the charts.
Really fickled market today...nerves are showing due to Berneke testimony this week I suppose.
...If the charts are predictive and Bernanke is benign maybe get a nice pop by friday-monday.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Just thoughts ... in no particular order ....
Looking at the TNX--X and the TYX--X ... it would seem that they are poised to move higher ...
And ... that would generally make for a stonger USD ... and the DXY0 doesn't look all that bad either ...
But ... a stronger USD wouldn't seem to favor much of rally in dollar based commodities ...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (realitycheck)
Just thoughts ... in no particular order ....
Looking at the TNX--X and the TYX--X ... it would seem that they are poised to move higher ...
And ... that would generally make for a stonger USD ... and the DXY0 doesn't look all that bad either ...
But ... a stronger USD wouldn't seem to favor much of rally in dollar based commodities ...
my thoughts exactly. although things can move independently.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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R.C. & F.M. should give us some good info more often
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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I think shorter term interest rates would be more of a currency factor than the 10 & 30 yr yield. If I think about it, a weak demand for treasuries is what would let rates drift higher, which would probably indicate weaker demand for the USD, all things being equal. Of course, all things aren't equal, and numerous factors are at play, which it what makes the predicting difficult (or impossible).
It's important to remember that commodity prices aren't completely currency related, they have their own intrinisic value based on fundamental & technicals of each commodity. (like what FM just said) A falling dollar gives a tailwind for commodity prices, but I don't think it's essential for a commodity bull.
At the end of the day, I'm a trend follower, and currenty commodity trends are upward, and long term USD trends are downward, although thisUSD trend looks like it could be reversing.
RC I'm with you on the higher yields camp. I think $2T in net new treasury supply in 2010 will drive yields higher.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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nice looking h&s on the 30 year bond.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=TLT&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&i=p85817417868&a=173731361&r=988
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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cut and paste the link.
posting charts is a pain in this forum.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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QUOTE (funnymony) cut and paste the link.
posting charts is a pain in this forum. It seems obvious to me that the Wordens are trying to get us to move toward their FreeStockCharts website. I wouldn't be surprised if they wouldn't rather shut this one down so they don't have to run two. Not a complaint, just an observation. Charts, notes, etc already on the other one.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.
The interviewer calls them in and asks "What does two plus two equal?"
Mathematician: "It equals four."
Accountant: "It equals four. (assuming neutral taxes/liabilities/depreciation)"
Economist: "What do you want it to equal?"
Thanks
diceman
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138
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Well the answer could be five for exceptionally large values of two.
-Bruce
Personal Criteria Formulas
TC2000 Support Articles
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Registered User
Joined: 4/5/2009
Posts: 16
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Just thoughts ... in no particular order ....
Looking at the TNX--X and the TYX--X ... it would seem that they are poised to move higher ...
And ... that would generally make for a stonger USD ... and the DXY0 doesn't look all that bad either ...
But ... a stronger USD wouldn't seem to favor much of rally in dollar based commodities ...
Most interesting comment, because Jim Farrish of Sectorexchange.com did the webinar last night and started off with the same observation about TNX-X & TYX-X. He then went on to draw a correlation to the mortgage etf & home builders etf. Don't believe in coincedence so it definitely bears watching.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/5/2009
Posts: 16
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Apologize hit the wrong button - quote from realitycheck. Thanks again
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (funnymony) QUOTE (realitycheck)
Just thoughts ... in no particular order ....
Looking at the TNX--X and the TYX--X ... it would seem that they are poised to move higher ...
And ... that would generally make for a stonger USD ... and the DXY0 doesn't look all that bad either ...
But ... a stronger USD wouldn't seem to favor much of rally in dollar based commodities ...
my thoughts exactly. although things can move independently.
Well ...
I think logic makes some of this a bit more clear ...
As we know that the market is simply not going to be able to absorb all of the debt being floated by this administration ....
Between the debt being issued by the Federal and State governements ... they have virtually pushed private borrowers out of the marketplace ... i.e. why take a risk on Bob when there is an implicit guarantee from the govt ?
And we're seeing China and Japan losing their apetite for US debt ... reducing their positions by $500 million in December alone ..
But even at that ... I don't think that the governmental debt can be absorbed ... which should make for weaker and weaker auctions ... lower bid to cover ratios ... and higher and higher yields ...
This will drive up the interest due on $12+ Trillion debt ... causing more deficit spending to service it ... more governmental borrowing ... more monetizing the debt on the part of the Fed ... and from there it will simply be a self-reinforcing negative feedback loop ...
Until the day comes that the Fed is the largest buyer at the auction ... and the price of gold skyrockets ...
So eventually ... it seems that it will be yields up ... Gold up ... USD down ... in a big sort of way ...
Oh well ...
Should be fun to watch ...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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QUOTE (tobydad) [QUOTE=funnymony]cut and paste the link.
I wouldn't be surprised if they wouldn't rather shut this one down so they don't have to run two. Not a complaint, just an observation. Charts, notes, etc already on the other one.
Hope you are wrong about that T.D.,
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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some of these picks have done very well.
Here's a few more that look decent:
LFT weekly
CYCC daily - looks like a dragon!
JOEZ - bounce off the ema...aka the "holy grail" trade
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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JOEZ and CYCC took off today, and here's another solid looking breakout of a inverted H&S continuation pattern...also has a good fundamental story
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