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dasunn
Posted : Sunday, May 15, 2011 7:45:23 AM
Gold Customer Gold Customer

Joined: 5/11/2005
Posts: 14

TC200 V11 , Time Series Forecast Indicator.
How does one utilize TSF and what are the recommended settings? How successfull has anyone had using this indicator?

diceman
Posted : Sunday, May 15, 2011 12:20:56 PM
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,034

I think your looking at things the wrong way.
The real question should be: How do you want to trade and can the TSFI help you get there?
If not, or if you don't see a way, don't use it.

Remember, someone could be using it on a 5 min chart or a weekly chart.
It could be used as a "fancy moving average" or for support/resistance.
They could be using it as a short-term indicator or a long-term indicator.
They could use it to indicate a trend: up=bullish, down=bearish.

There are too many styles and methods of trade to have it matter if someone else  making money with this.


Thanks
diceman

dasunn
Posted : Sunday, May 15, 2011 7:38:15 PM
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Joined: 5/11/2005
Posts: 14
I did not get that. I wanted some help, not a philosopy lesson.
diceman
Posted : Sunday, May 15, 2011 7:47:26 PM
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,034

Trading is a philosophy lesson, it just depends if one can see it.





Thanks
diceman

dasunn
Posted : Sunday, May 15, 2011 8:07:41 PM
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Joined: 5/11/2005
Posts: 14
Lets see if we can get specific.

I am a swing trader. I use a xma crossover, vol, bollinger bands and short term/long term macd for my setup.

I look to buy strong stocks (9,6,3 mo Roc>10%) on above avg 20 day vol with price hooking up the last 1or2 days. Typically price would be crossing over a 3 day xma.

I was hoping the time series forecast would help me predict the next 5 day prices so my trade would yield me at least 4%.

Do you have any information for me in this reguard?

dave
diceman
Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 1:20:17 AM
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Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,034
QUOTE (dasunn)
Lets see if we can get specific.

I am a swing trader. I use a xma crossover, vol, bollinger bands and short term/long term macd for my setup.

I look to buy strong stocks (9,6,3 mo Roc>10%) on above avg 20 day vol with price hooking up the last 1or2 days. Typically price would be crossing over a 3 day xma.

I was hoping the time series forecast would help me predict the next 5 day prices so my trade would yield me at least 4%.

Do you have any information for me in this reguard?

dave


That’s my point, the odds would be very rare that I would be using it in that way.
Even though its called forecast I would have a hard time believing my trade knew it was applied.

All you can really do is take good trades and bad trades and “fool around” with it to see if
It can help to filter them. ( I doubt it would)

I would probably take your good trades and see if they have any common characteristics on entry. (vs. the bad ones)
How was the trend before the trade?
Was the broad market bullish?
What was the volume pattern?
Did low priced stocks do better?
Was ADX strong?
What was RSI?
What was volatility?
Were they in a hot sector?

(not that you would use all that, it would just be areas to investigate)

While its impossible to predict the future, if there’s something common (or at least more common) about winning trades its possible you may be able to increase your batting average.

Ultimately the only thing we can actually control is the entry bar.


Thanks
diceman
alindsley
Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 5:08:12 PM

Registered User
Joined: 2/28/2005
Posts: 825
dasunn I might have a suggestion for you? Why not try using the default settings of 30  and use price crossing the TSF as a buy/sell indicator?  When price drops below TSF line sell/price rises above the line buy.

Following those 2 rules would of taken you in and out of the SP-500 at an almost perfect time. As I quickly scroll down a list of stocks I see the same thing holds true a good share of the time.

If you like that idea, you could then right click on Price History/Add Column--Click on the down arrow by Based On: and select Crossing up Time Series Forecast 30. Then whenever a stocks price crosses up you will see it marked in a column for your buying consideration (or vice-versa if you are a shorter).  10 stocks showed up in the sp-500 as I created this column.


Is that what you are looking for?

Hope that helps
art
dasunn
Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 6:50:36 PM
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Joined: 5/11/2005
Posts: 14
Thanks a lot, it sure does help.

My problem is/was how to interpret the indicator. Since it is called a forecast, I thought it forecasted a price value. The edit box contains the ability to indicate the forecast bars wanted. I made the assumption there was a 30 day algorithm using past history values to calculate this forecast bar value.

I searched Google a lot to better understand TSF. Most were too heavy for me and did not enlighten me much. One simple explanation was to buy under and sell over the line. It said TSF was a mean value to which price would return to. 

Because I am a swing trader, I set my forecasted bars to 5. If you toggle to different forecast bars and watch the corresponding price line, one will see that TSF line change. I am assuming that this indicator is calculating price out to the furture bars selected.

I am not certain of my understanding. Thats why I made my origninal post. I was hoping to hear from someone knew more than I do. You could be right on your analysis and I do appreciate your inputs. 

I will paper trade for a while and see if I can draw some conclusion that will help make some profitable trades. 

Any further input will be much appreciated.

regards
Dave
alindsley
Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 8:10:16 PM

Registered User
Joined: 2/28/2005
Posts: 825
In TC2k if you click on help/help it will take to the URL. IN search type in your Time Series Forecast and it says:

Time Series Forecast

The Time Series Forecast indicator displays the statistical trend of a security's price over a specified time period. The trend is based on linear regression analysis. Rather than plotting a straight linear regression trendline, the Time Series Forecast plots the last point of multiple linear regression trendlines. The resulting Time Series Forecast indicator is sometimes referred to as the "moving linear regression" indicator or the "regression oscillator."

One other suggestion if I may. I use the bollinger bands  quite a lot. I added that to a chart with the TSF. Look for the BB squeeze to breakout ontop of the TSF30. You may be further surprised when you pick up on the Dragon Heads

Notice how DFS broke out today on super high volume. However Bulkowski's recent post says statistics say to him that volume (huge or otherwise) is not a big factor statistically.

Now you could watch for the Xdown thru the TSF30 for a sell signal


If you do a search onsite for DRAGON there is a ton of great information from the really good traders in here.

good luck
art
alindsley
Posted : Monday, May 16, 2011 8:12:41 PM

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Joined: 2/28/2005
Posts: 825
www.worden.com/legacy/TeleChartHelp/Content/Indicators/Moving_Linear_Regression.htm
dasunn
Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 5:18:39 AM
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Joined: 5/11/2005
Posts: 14
Thanks so much.

I once was a user of stockmentor.com with Dan Fitzpatrick who really advocated the bollinger band volitility squeeze concept. Its a great aid.

I will paper trade using tsf along with my other indicators for a while.

regards
Dave
alindsley
Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 9:09:54 AM

Registered User
Joined: 2/28/2005
Posts: 825
I receive Dan's free nightly video and have learned much from them. He also appears in one of the worden training videos last year 3/09/2010 - Sector Strategies for 2010, guest Dan Fitzpatrick

Best of luck dasunn. Lord be with ye
art
alindsley
Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 10:02:07 AM

Registered User
Joined: 2/28/2005
Posts: 825
Bruce or diceman would you create a PCF where
price yesterday was below the Time Series Forecast 30 and
today price crossed up through the TSF30

I would like to put this into an easyscan.

Hopefully one day TC2k will allow us to create a PCF from an easysort scan.

thanks
art
Bruce_L
Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 10:14:30 AM


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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 60,672
C > AVGC30 + 15.5 * (14.5 * C + 13.5 * C1 + 12.5 * C2 + 11.5 * C3 + 10.5 * C4 + 9.5 * C5 + 8.5 * C6 + 7.5 * C7 + 6.5 * C8 + 5.5 * C9 + 4.5 * C10 + 3.5 * C11 + 2.5 * C12 + 1.5 * C13 + .5 * C14 - .5 * C15 - 1.5 * C16 - 2.5 * C17 - 3.5 * C18 - 4.5 * C19 - 5.5 * C20 - 6.5 * C21 - 7.5 * C22 - 8.5 * C23 - 9.5 * C24 - 10.5 * C25 - 11.5 * C26 - 12.5 * C27 - 13.5 * C28 - 14.5 * C29) / 2247.5 AND C1 < AVGC30.1 + 15.5 * (14.5 * C1 + 13.5 * C2 + 12.5 * C3 + 11.5 * C4 + 10.5 * C5 + 9.5 * C6 + 8.5 * C7 + 7.5 * C8 + 6.5 * C9 + 5.5 * C10 + 4.5 * C11 + 3.5 * C12 + 2.5 * C13 + 1.5 * C14 + .5 * C15 - .5 * C16 - 1.5 * C17 - 2.5 * C18 - 3.5 * C19 - 4.5 * C20 - 5.5 * C21 - 6.5 * C22 - 7.5 * C23 - 8.5 * C24 - 9.5 * C25 - 10.5 * C26 - 11.5 * C27 - 12.5 * C28 - 13.5 * C29 - 14.5 * C30) / 2247.5

Using Linear Regression vs Classical Peaks/Valleys for Divergence Analysis

-Bruce
Personal Criteria Formulas
TC2000 Support Articles
alindsley
Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2011 10:20:18 AM

Registered User
Joined: 2/28/2005
Posts: 825
Thank You Bruce. Works great

art
dasunn
Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 1:47:04 PM
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Joined: 5/11/2005
Posts: 14
QUOTE (alindsley)
Thank You Bruce. Works great

art


Thanks Art and Bruce, just what I was looking for. You TC guys are the greatest.
Dave
akadre20
Posted : Wednesday, April 26, 2017 4:37:19 PM
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Joined: 9/17/2014
Posts: 16

What's the PCF formula be for Time Series Forecast 3 at close yesterday? Thanks

Bruce_L
Posted : Wednesday, April 26, 2017 4:52:30 PM


Worden Trainer

Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 60,672

Assuming the TSF is applied to price and the Forecast Bars setting is set to 1, the formula could be written as follows in TC2000 v17:

AVG(C1, 3) + ((3 - 1) / 2 + 1) * 6 * (FAVG(C1, 3) - AVG(C1, 3)) / (3 - 1)

Which could be shortened to:

6 * FAVGC3.1 - 5 * AVGC3.1



-Bruce
Personal Criteria Formulas
TC2000 Support Articles
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