Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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I looking for the following to rise at least $1.00 above its opening price on Monday:
ARP
Good Luck!
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Really! What makes you think that? Dailys have negative divergences across the board - MS, TSV, and BOP. Intraday it couldn't be any uglier. Strong selling at the opening, and again at the closing. The down candle stares at you like so intense it is hard to miss. I think you are going to need Santa on Monday, and lots of faith. I wouldn't bet on this one by your expectations even if it was free.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 1/27/2005
Posts: 8
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lagging indicators are bad
furture indicators are hopeful
there is no big money in the group, never was
they are almost the worst in there group, which is one of the worst.
with the right style, you might make a buck or two
but not per share
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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Friday's downturn was just profit-taking. But, an upward trend had begun just before that where there were 3 consective higher highs before the fall and Friday's
low was very close to being a double bottom to the low
on the Friday the week before (only a .07 diff).
That said, there was still not enough volume today to pull it across the $1 threshold I was hoping for.
But, hey it wasn't a total loss -- actually, it was'nt
a loss at all. Good for up to a 40c scalp anyway.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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The heck of a scalp I would say (well I would called a intraday swing but...) - you picked up at the very bottom and sold at the very top. I call that perfect timing - excellent timing. Mostly in a stock with an intraday activity as this one, and with not even 95,000 shrs traded today.
I hope you realize I am being sarcastic here.
Remember there are real traders on this board.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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40 c scalp on a stocks that trades 95,000 shares a day ..to make it worth your time you would have to have bought 1000 shares $32,000 . Much better ones out there to trade intraday .. try OSCI..
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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Malcomb the stock doesn't trade 95000 shares a day.
Just today. It's avg monthly trading volume is more
than 250000. Which I admit is a little skimpy.
Bigblock, don't you know anything about playing the open?
What's this sarcasm about excellent timing?
If one expects a stock to make a $1 or more above the open then why would not one play the open price and take the option of scalping anywhere in between the open price and $1 above the open price? Real scalpers no this already.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Scalps do not involve more than .10 on the block. On the average is .005. Blocks of 10,000 shrs are require for any serious scalping if you are to make a living.
By the way scalpers do not take that kind of risk at the opening. Elements have to line up very linearly to pull the trigger.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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You don't need to trade 10000 shares to make
a living scalping stocks.
A minimum trade of 300 shares times a .40 scalp
is $120.00 for a day. A 1000 shares is $400 for a day.
Not everyone here can trade 10000 shares.
The indicators I use from my proprietary programs
showed this stock to have minimal downturn risk
at this point.
As I recall, the indicators you mentioned initially
all had negative divergences for this stock. Shoot,
you had this stock falling off the cliff! I wonder why
that did't happen. With all the negative sentiment in
the market today, you should have been more right about this stock than I was. But, you weren't.
good luck to you to, BB.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Memora I have no idea how long you have been trading, but a .40 is not a scalp (it is a swing). You can trade the number of shrs you want, but to make a living you need bigblocks while scalping.
Example: You try to scalp a .005 on 1000 shrs if you are lucky and grab the whole .05 you get just $50 minus comissions. You must plan to at least replicate the scalp at least 10 more times. Unless you plan to watch the tick for 8 hrs straight during normal market hours you have little chance in doing so. And even if you watch the tick for that period of time, the opportunities may not present themselve many days.
By the way I was completely correct in my statement in respond to your $1 (hope to get). the stock didn't even go half way there, and yes longer time frame indicators show negative divergences which expect to kick in later on. The Industry of Divesified Services is also in decline. So I cannot predict 100% where this will go, but it is clear that the path of least resistant is down, supported by many factors. I wouldn't want to hold this long at this point (the odds wouldn't be in my side). As for daytrade who cares - It is another dimension by itself - not having to do with the longer time frame, and mostly if you are scalping.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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BB, first of all, I would not trade a stock where I would hope to get only .05 from it.
If my programs don't indicate that there is a possiblity
of getting at least $1.00 minimum above or below the open (depending on whether I am buying or shorting) then I won't give that stock a second look.
The only mistake I feel I made in recommending this stock
is that the average volume was too then.
I am very confident, however, that this stock, based on price volatility alone, had the chance to move at least $1 higher than the open. I failed to notice the lack of avg volume breath on this one. But, I was also confident that this stock would not drop far below the open. My price volatility risk/reward indicators were essentially zero -- meaning no downside risk at all for a day trade. (Mind you, this is just a probablity indicator like anythingelse that is based on price history. But,this indicator was good enough for me).
If my risk/reward indicators are higher than .33 then I don't give this stock a second look in this case, either.
And I disagree with you on terminology. A swing trade carries over to one or more days.
Any day trade where there are profits of less than $1.00 per share is a scalp. Otherwise, it's a day trade.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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I think you should review your terminology and facts about scalps, and swings. There are also Swings in the time frame of a single day. Those apply to daytrades and are under complete different terms that your regular swing trades on a daily time frame.
You should most definetely check your definitions of scalps. You are absolutely wrong. Did you ever see a stock with difference of bid and ask of $.59 or .30. or .25 etc.?
Please briefly review the text below for a general concept of Scalping
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The main premises of scalping are:
Lessened exposure limits risk - A brief exposure to the market diminishes the probability of running into an adverse event.
Smaller moves are easier to obtain - A bigger imbalance of supply and demand is needed to warrant bigger price changes. It is easier for a stock to make a 10 cent move than it is to make a $1 move.
Smaller moves are more frequent than larger ones - Even during relatively quiet markets there are many small movements that a scalper can exploit.
Scalping can be adopted as a primary or supplementary style of trading.
Primary Style
A pure scalper will make a number of trades a day, between five and 10 to hundreds. A scalper will mostly utilize one-minute charts since the time frame is small and he or she needs to see the setups as they shape up as close to real time as possible. Quote systems Nasdaq Level II, TotalView and/or Times and Sales are essential tools for this type of trading. Automatic instant execution of orders is crucial to a scalper, so a direct-access broker is the favored weapon of choice.
Supplementary Style
Traders of other time frames can use scalping as a supplementary approach in several ways. The most obvious way is to use it when the market is choppy or locked in a narrow range. When there are no trends in a longer time frame, going to a shorter time frame can reveal visible and exploitable trends, which can lead a trader to scalp.
Another way to add scalping to longer time-frame trades is through the so-called "umbrella" concept. This approach allows a trader to improve his or her cost basis and maximize a profit. Umbrella trades are done in the following way:
A trader initiates a position for a longer time-frame trade.
While the main trade develops, a trader identifies new setups in a shorter time frame in the direction of the main trade, entering and exiting them by the principles of scalping.
Practically any trading system, based on particular setups, can be used for the purposes of scalping. In this regard, scalping can be seen as a kind of method of risk management. Basically any trade can be turned into a scalp by taking a profit near the 1:1 risk/reward ratio. This means that the size of profit taken equals the size of a stop dictated by the setup. If, for instance, a trader enters his or her position for a scalp trade at $20 with an initial stop at $19.90, then the risk is 10 cents; this means a 1:1 risk/reward ratio will be reached at $20.10.
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