Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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I purchased MT-Predictor. It works hand-in-hand with telechart. It reads right from your watchlists and scans. I have a lot of reading and learning to do, although I have watched just about every video before purchasing it. I did a scan of all stocks from telechart and it only found 8 trades. Of those 8 trades 3 did not have the risk reward I was looking for.
It looks pretty cool. I'll let you all know if it was worth it.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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The programs forecasting capability on where a stock is most likely to move is absolutely incredibly accurate. Now remember, this stock only looks for patterns that are just right, so it doesn't make that many predicition, but the predictions it do make pan out.
I went back and checked 50 stocks in history. It not only predicted it's movement 39 times out of the 50 without getting stopped out, but 33 times it picked it's EXACT RANGE WHERE IT WOULD TOP OR BOTTOM OUT.
The program also allows you to put your own elliot waves on there as well if you feel so bold. It will then predict where the price will go if your wave count was correct.
THIS IS JUST SO COOL!!!
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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lmao, I should have read that before I posted it. It should say This program only looks for patterns that are just right so it doesn't make that many predictions, but the predictions it does make seem to pan out.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Oh, and I forgot to mention the coolest part. I made my first trade this morning with it.
It recommended SLAB because it was moiving into wave 5. It recommended an entry point at 46.14 and a stop at 44.69. I have my stop set, but could only get in at 46.18 which is ok.
The computer predicts a minimum wave five rise will take the stock to the 53.26 to 54.43 range. risk reward if it reaches this range is 4.91
The typical wave five will take this stock to 59-62.00, and the max wave 5 will take it 70-74. Risk reward for the typical wave 5 is 9 to 1. If it goes to the max it is 16.7 to 1.
Now he does recommend moving up stops, and I haven't finished reading the over 400 page manual, but I will see what he believes in that area tonight.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
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Oh, and one more thing. His program confirmed my HARB and FDC purchases as well.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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interesting .. keep us posted
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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HnC,
Have it take a look at NEM. By my count, we are likely in wave 5,4. My target for the correction is not much lower than $49-50.00 before the start of wave 5.
I'd expect some sort of B wave bounce here, probably not much higher than 58, before heading on down to 50.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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It shows no elliot waves at this time although it does show it completed Wave 5 on January 31.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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I think I understand how this software works.
It can only deal with small price patterns on the daily. It can't integrate data from multiple time frames into one big picture.
Does it work on weekly data too?
No big deal, but it does confirm my outlook somewhat. I count the 5 wave move that completed on 1/31 as wave 5.3., with wave 5.4 underway. We should see wave B end somewere around 58, with a low for wave C somewhere between 49 and 50, unless we get some complex correction.
I have some calendar spreads on NEM as we speak, although I am bullish for the longer term trend.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Yes, it does work weekly as well. The same result applies however.
This was done as a forced analysis by the software. It did not find this on its own. I asked it to find major waves as it did not find any intermediate waves that conform to elliott analysis.
The software mainly looks for trade setups. If there is no trade setup for TODAY THEN IT FINDS NOTHING about the stock. You can force it to go through history and find specific waves, but if it never recommended a trade setup then it is just a best guess on the software's part.
The software does allow you to manually put in the the count if you are confident about it, and it will give you the risk-reward and likely typical price target to expect.
The software keeps less than 3 years worth of information in history, so if a major trend started previously to that it will not have a correct count.
It's strength is in intermediate term information.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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Should the software see a distinct change in a trend on this stock I will post back in this thread.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Let's see how close this software can get to predicting the sp-500. According the calculations made by the program, the sp-500 will most likely top out between 1298-1307.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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It predicts the nasdaq will top out between 2332-2348, and the dow will top out between 11426 to 11517. I have a tough time with that dow number, but the others sound reasonable.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
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As we are getting closer to the upward prediction of the indexes, I noticed that last night it found almost all trade setups to be short. It only finds between 5-20 stocks per day that it feels are in a perfect setup.
I then look at risk reward ratios and pick the best two or three.
I mentioned in another thread that I wanted to be able to short some high flyers quicker than after the stock had already begun plummetting. Well I found a way to do this. If you use the program to do weekly scans it actually finds some pretty nice charts.
Take a look at RYAN on a daily chart. I would never short sell this stock in its current position based on any of my previous knowledge. In fact, I would be more apt to buy it. TSV is good, macd is great, and moneystream it good. The software says its a short with a stop loss at 13.38. Because the prediction is based on a weekly chart it will normally take longer for the short to unfold. I think this will be an interesting one to watch. I only shorted 400 shares for the fun of it. Personally I think I will get stopped out, but we'll see. It's minimum target downward is 9.70-10.17. It predicts it should hit 8.82-9.24.
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Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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Interesting.
I can see that happening. If this is wave B or some X wave from the steep downtrend, then at least 11 should be tested.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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HaveNoCents,
What does your software say about NEM now? We hit 58 today, with a chance of 59 on Monday.
Regardless, it is well within the retracement zone I'm expecting. Keep in mind, NEM reports earnings on Monday.
So far, everything is going according to my prior post above, dated 2/15/06.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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It shows it is in a wave 2 or b uptrend from the 1 or A downtrend off of a wave five. The predicted price range is pretty large because it doesn't yet know if it is a 2 wave or a b wave. Price target is 57.965-60.69. So it has already hit the minimum of its price target.
If the analysis is correct, there will be a downward trend C or 3 coming soon. The chart is bullish for Monday.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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HaveNoCents,
Thanks. That is essentially my outlook. I think a target for wave C is around 48-50. With earnings coming out, that makes me a bit worried.
I have some long call spreads on NEM, along with some slightly OTM calls, at the current time. I think I'm going to buy some short term puts on Monday, and play some of the downside action here.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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Great, looks like it will work out well for you. congrats.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 102
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I enjoy this Elliott thread-- I see where RYAN is in a zig zag wave 4 up (s/w probably sees a 2004 top with 5th as that $8-9 tgt)... rules of alternation state 2 would usually be complex... which it is. And the more you zoom, the more you see this current 4 really does smell like an ABC-- and high vol distribution in Nov/Dec consolidation with vol picking up on the downside currently.
Pretty cool... just hit this thread now, but an hour ago I was counting HAL down... would love to hear is your s/w confirms 5 down into 2/15 low with us in a complex corrective wave targeting C at 74. Implications would be either that trend is now down, OR that this is one heck of an ABC... wild thing is... either one suggests another large leg down.
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For the software to work it not only has to find an elliot wave, it also has to be at a reversal point which HAL has not completed yet.
You can bring the chart into the past and let the software predict where the current wave may end. It is in a C wave upward correction which means the next move is down, but it should not begin to move down until it reaches 82-85 dollars. If it can make it over 85 it's next most likely target is 88-92
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 102
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HAL? upward "C" tgt of 82-85? do you mean 72-75?
i'm confused as to how it's calc new highs for an upward correction ??? (and going through some MTpredictor videos now-- don't worry, i'm a lg cap PM at a large bank... no competitive threat here... unfortunately my holding periods are usually >3mos)
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
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Sorry. It's most likely range is 72-75 dollars. It's top range could go as high as 78-82. I guess my typing in total darkness doesn't work too well with numbers.
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Joined: 12/31/2004
Posts: 102
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HaveNoCents-- perfect, that all makes sense now... thank you for clarifying... have a great weekend
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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NEM announced lower than expected earnings. As I expected, the stock traded down sharply.
I had mistakenly thought the earnings would have been after the close, but they announced pre-market. I had to scramble to put in an order for my puts, so I didn't get the greatest of fills.
I bought 3 Mar 55 NEM puts for 1.05. They closed at 1.80, and I plan on holding them at least until the end of the week.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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Sorry, I never did check the earnings date. I always do on my stocks as you do as well. Once earnings are announced all bets are off with any kind of technical analysis. It's a shame because it had a great day on friday.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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HnC,
I don't know why you are sorry. The Elliott prediction was spot on.
You wroIf the analysis is correct, there will be a downward trend C or 3 coming soon."
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Yes, but I also said things look bullish for Monday. The program puts blue bars and red bars on the chart. If a blue bar appears close to a target the rule is to hold it one more day and see what it does, and a red bar means to sell it. I had no idea they reported earnings today.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/6/2005
Posts: 239
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HaveNo¢,
Now that you've used MTPredictor for a few weeks what do you think of it? Both as a piece of software and more importantly as a trading tool? Are the selections and targets working out in this market? Can you switch the charts to candlesticks or is it limited to bar charts?
Thanks for the feedback you've provided so far in the various posts; also thanks for the link to the .pdf file on Elliott Waves. I too like Griffiths approach to EW using ABC waves seems to make it much simler and easier to use.
S2
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Yes, you can change the charts to candlesticks, but the charts are all arithmetic. If you were to just view the charts in that mode it seems like nothing looks like a trend.
The jury is still out on whether the picks it makes really work. If I were to close all of my positions I have made with the program as of right now I would definely be ahead. I consider that to be good sign since this is an extremely choppy market close to a top.
I have learned that you do not take any recommendations after a large market move up or down. Yesterday there were a number of shorts recommended that I just ignored since the market had a large drop. To me you have to make picks after just a normal market day. Even today, I would probably not accept any of the program's selections, since just about everything was up.
Even if the program's stock selections are terrible I feel the software has great value. There are many good patterns that the software cannot find with its own automatic scans that are very obvious if you have any idea what an elliott pattern looks like. They are working on better pattern recognition, and supposedly even this version is better than the last version.
My biggest problem with investing was that I was pretty one dimensional. I traded with the trend whether up or down. Although I had systems that could help predict when we are close to the top of a market, I have no systems to tell me when we are at a bottom. I also had no system to tell me at what market number we would be close to a top or bottom. I also would never go long on any stock below its 150 day moving average, or short any stock above its 150 moving average. I was still very successful doing this, but I always missed the largest part of the movement of a stock.
I cannot express how excited I am about this product along side of TC2005. The two together are an incredible arsenal. I must admit I was skeptical of elliott wave analysis. After reading three books on it all I can tell you is that those books made me even more skeptical. They all tried to make every chart fit an elliott pattern. MT-predictor tells you if it can find one or not. If it doesn't find one it tells you to go fish.
It appears TSV 5 works as a good indicator for the program, but I am still analyzing this. I do know my indicators that I have used for years (tsv 22) and MACD 12,26,9 are terrible. So far my best selections have come when these two indicators were negative. I'm sure it's just a timing problem.
As far as I'm concerned Griffith's approach to all of this is sheer genious. It's so simple, yet so clever.
I did close out one position yesterday OKSB which I managed to break even on. The stock just didn't have good volume, and it was a stock that was picked with a terrible pattern. I also got stopped out at a loss on LLTC. Since everything is based on position sizing I have 470 dollars in losses that are closed and finished. I have 790 dollars in closed profits, and I currently have 880 dollars profit on unclosed positions. Had I not made a mistake in pattern recognition on my first two setups I would not have lost the 470 it would only be 150 dollars and that loss occurred today.
When the market really begins trending one way or the other I believe the returns will be incredible. I mentioned in another post that there must be many people using the program, and they must be setting buy limit orders prior to market open. I think this is a big mistake. I would rather increase my risk and MAKE SURE the stock is really moving up. If it moves up too much I will re-evaluate the risk vs reward. I have seen too many times where the high of the day was the exact price entry of the stock. I also set my stop loss below the number they suggest so the market maker doesn't look for big blocks of shares he wants to take out. This also increases my risk and I have to refigure every reward-vs risk ratio to make sure that it still meets the 2:1 minimum ratio.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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I forgot to mention one other personal benefit for me. I mentioned I have been in the metals business for the last 33 years.
Years ago, I could tell my customers where prices were going totally based on supply and demand. This is not the case any more. Since the speculators got hold of these commodities their prices can change so quickly. Stainless steel is based on nickel, chrome, and molybdenum pricing. Now I can go to the London metal exchange site and download pricing history. I can then use elliotwave analysis to predict where these commodities are going in price. Supposedly, the program is much more accurate for commodity trading than it is for stocks.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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Well the last two days the program hasn't really offered anything worth a darn. The pattern recognition hasn't been too good. When I first got the program I pretty well just went with anything that looked proportional. Now I go into telechart and get a better overall look.
I found one pattern I liked yesterday, but I could not enter the stock today at a good price. It was SWIR. I watched it all day today hoping it would come down a little because the entry price was supposed to be close to 12.25. It just shot straight up from the open and never got to the area I wanted. Target price is 15.25 min, but with the market so choppy who knows where it will go.
I closed or got stopped out of my losing positions today. I have nothing but profitable stocks left. Since I am testing the software I guess I will let them run until they move close to target, but I just don't know if this market will give me the time the stocks will need to make it.
I am seriously considering not taking on any new positions. The market is just acting way too strangely right now. Some news event is going to trigger this market to a new high, or to a major correction. I lean toward the latter.
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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Even though I am ahead since I started using MT Predictor I thought I would give an update on the program. I have not backtested a choppy market, but since I feel we are in one right now I would say the program does pretty well.
I have done extensive backtesting on the program only to find really disappointing results.
I decided to test the program two ways.
What I did was take the McClellan summation index and put a 20period ma on it. If the index was above the Moving average I considered the market to be bullish and vice versa. I made sure I picked periods where I knew the 20ma would be in an upward or downward trend for at least 2 months. This gave the program a better chance to succeed since a decent trend was in effect. I then allowed the program to make scans and pick stocks.
If you took the setups the program gave you without any other analysis you would only have a 28% chance of being right. Now they claim it doesn't matter because you have to compare the risk vs the reward, and yes, I understand this, but you need to have a better batting average than this in my opinio.
Now if you look at the charts in telechart and check your indicators (you have to make macd and tsv very short term) you can increase your success rate to slightly over 43% if you make those two indicators confirm along with moneystream.
Now if you forget the whole program and find the obvious setups yourself, or find stocks already in a wave, but not necessarily at the beginning of the wave, you can use the program to predict where the wave will end and be more than 79 percent accurate. By doing this you have to be happy with a lesser reward vs risk ratio, but the overall concept is better because the trend is confirmed without putting any money on the table.
I'll keep you guys updated as time goes on. Based on the backtesting it would be more profitable to do the opposite of the program in terms of success rate, but you do have to consider that when the program is correct there are many times you get 4-8 times your risk as profit. Even with just a 4 times reward vs risk, you only have to be right 25% OF THE TIME if you use PROPER MONEY MANAGEMENT to be even.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
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Well I have some good news, great news, and some bad news.
The bad news is the program has bugs scanning for weekly elliot waves.
The good news is you can still just go through the stocks manually one by one and it will find them if they are there.
The great news is the backtesting of these weekly predictions has had an accuracy of more than 70%. Plus your average holding period shoots up to about 90 days which is exactly my trading style.
The funny thing is the program authors do not recommend the weekly analysis. I don't know if it is because of the bugs or not, but all I can say is I am using nothing but weekly trend elliott analysis.
It doesn't even matter which direction the market is moving, it is still accurate going against or with the market.
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