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Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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How do you feel about this stock
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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My best guess is the stock may get back up to the 22 to 22.70 range and then will head back down.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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The post above was pre-elliot knowledge.
Now let me give you my "EXPERT"(LOL) elliot waveform analysis.
Believe it or not, this stock falls into elliot wave theory PERFECTLY.
Based on the last two days we could actually say we have completed the wave c correction. If that is true, and I believe it is, the stock will retrace to somewhere between 21.00 and 21.25. Once that retracement is finished, lookout, because we are headed up into wave three which should give us some nice increases.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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hnc,today when the market was down and mot was at 21.25 i sold 4 puts.
so far so good
watch that ge
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Joined: 12/8/2004
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I bet you GE will not close higher than 33.73 before it heads right back down again, and within the next 30 days GE will be below 31.00. Of course this is just gentlemen's bet.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
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Oh, and did you buy 4 puts, or sell for puts?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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4 puts
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) The post above was pre-elliot knowledge.
Now let me give you my "EXPERT"(LOL) elliot waveform analysis.
Believe it or not, this stock falls into elliot wave theory PERFECTLY.
Based on the last two days we could actually say we have completed the wave c correction. If that is true, and I believe it is, the stock will retrace to somewhere between 21.00 and 21.25. Once that retracement is finished, lookout, because we are headed up into wave three which should give us some nice increases.
HnC,
Glad I checked this thread out. MOT definitely fits Elliott wave theory.
I took a look at the monthly. It seems to me that MOT made 5 waves down from the 2000 peak. This rally looks to be a 3 wave affair, at least on the monthly. Notice that if you use the retrace tool and draw a line from the 200 high to the 2003 low (Feb 2003), this rally seems to have stalled very close the 38.2% retracement line. The internal structure of the bull market in MOT, I would label as a double zig-zag, which may have been complete at the Jan. high.
Now, if Elliott holds up, any bullish count on the lower time frames is likely to be limitted, as the next sequence should be DOWN.
This is certainly consistent with my bearishness on the Nasdaq, and general market.
Now, the problem--this correction of the bull may be more complex, but I'd be selling this thing if I were long, and I just might buy puts to get short.
MOT lost 88% from peak to trough through the bear market. The outrageous target for wave C of this decline (0.88 * 0.618) = -54.38%
Wave C is likely to be at least 0.618 the length of wave A, which gives me a target of 11.40 +/-.
This is a very crude wave count, based only on the monthly. There are likely to be numerous trading opportunities over the next few months. A more detailed wave count would provide times to take profits, and maybe even go long on a counter trend correction (bear market rally).
Using a lower 23.6% length for wave C, then an initial low should occur somewhere around 19.80. 25.00 * (1-(0.236 * 0.88)).
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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hnc,i sold four puts mot and personally i think the guy that said ge would be down ond half to one third is out of his mind.
Perhaps if we see a dow at 5000
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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i was talking about ge hnc
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Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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Gary,
The guy who thinks GE could lose 50% is Richard Russell from Dow Theory Letters.
He has been in the business for what--40 years? Hulbert states he has one of the best records of newsletter writers.
When Russell talks, I listen, even if I don't necessarily agree (although I usually do).
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Joined: 3/7/2005
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i think he is wrong-bellweather and 3.1% div.
I am a buyer in here
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Joined: 3/7/2005
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rmr, if ge lost 50% it would be selling or around 17 dollars a share
do you really buy into that?
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Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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Gary,
Anything is possible. GE is involved in lots of different sectors of the economy, and nearly half of the earnings are from finance.
This emphasis on finance has been wonderful for GE during the past 20 years or so--low inflation, ever expanding credit, making their earnings growth look stellar.
But should the economy hit a recession, there may be some hidden risk with GE that everyone is not factoring in yet.
Everyone thinks its cheap, yet it sells off. Analysts like it, even value investors like it. Yet it doesn't move, and even sells off.
Doesn't that tell you something?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
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You have some valid points and nobody knows for sure.
The stock is down from 48 to around 33.
time will tell
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
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GE may have a couple of decent days next week which may pull it close to 34.00, but I cannot see how it could possibly reverse this strong downtrend without some consolidation.
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Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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Motorolla Update:
Based on my wave count above, I decided to buy long term puts (Oct. 22.5) on MOT back on 3/24/06. As you can see from the daily, it wasn't the best of times to be buying puts.
But, based on the monthly chart, the gains were limitted, and MOT did not trade above 25, and rather quickly dropped to the $20 level.
I decided to add to my MOT puts and added 3 more Oct 20 puts. I'm planning to take profits if MOT trades below 18.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
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At this point i personally would be more inclined to sell some mot puts rather than buy them.
happy trades
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Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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rmr1976
to short motorola after that sharp drop looked risky
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Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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I took some profits on the 22.50 puts just a few days after I posted. I still have Oct 20 puts.
No doubt, the timing on the trade wasn't perfect.
If we break over 22, perhaps I'll change my tune, but the weekly charts still look bad to me, and the volume on this rally is less than impressive.
It is still less than a full position that I have on, so I'm not all that worried about it.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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Ugly day for MOT. Down 4% and threateneing a breakdown below the October lows. Any reason why?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2005
Posts: 148
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The market has gone to hell
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