Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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It might be time to consider some longs. I thought the market was going to drop through for the next leg down but I still suspect the powers that be are just not going to let that happen until the coronation, er....uh...inauguration. Sorry, my bad.
Anyway, let's see what happens with these. Please buy carefully, prayerfully and warily.
- HUN
- APP
- LZB
- ZLC
- HTX
- OFG
- AHD
- FST
- IO
- LBY
- SRZ
- BUCY
- CLF
- CPE
- SCR
- RTP
- JASO
- GFA
Ask if you are not sure how to go about buying into these.
Good hunting and let's be careful out there
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Be certain that you are not just jumping into any of these willy-nilly. Look for dojis on big volume with an obv uptick, LR30 support on candlestick, tsv26 over its ubb13 or even over 0. Find something that tells you we're turning around. I suspect we may see a nice short term pop out of these (or some of these) but you have to keep your head on a swivel. Somebody out there would like to earhole you (football talk).
Make sure you have a plan. Any plan you'll use consistently is better than no plan at all. Make sure that you hear that I said consistently.
Looks like we're in for another down day. Hopefully the pace of the slide down will increase. Then we'll hit something on the downhill slope that will allow the intense downward pressure to make the short term bounce up that much more robust.
Patience and courage are your two best tools right now if you're a swing trader like me. My portfolio increased over 50% on the last one week run up. That happened by waiting for the right time not by me being clever. I'm not very knowledgeable; I've just gotten beat up enough to learn to be patient.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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from the list above I like -
BUCY
FST
GFA
OFG
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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If you want help with a stop loss strategy on moves like this, let me know.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Tobydad it is funny, I was just preparing the chart for BUCY with a support level and stop ploted at $17 and as I am typing this price just bounced off that level. I bought at $17.04 with a stop at 16.90
Let me know how you would play this one and are you in?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Apsll, Hi, I actually wasn't directing my comments about stop losses to you. It was a general comment for any of the newer traders that might need help.
As far as entry, I'd move my entry to just above successively lower HOD's.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/29/2008
Posts: 26
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I am a newer trader and would appreciate your input on stop losses.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
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apsll, are you gonna try the same trick again tomorrow with BUCY? ! Today's market was fun, wasn't it, if your idea of fun is palpitations and chest pain! I suppose it was a classic demonstration of technical analysis, in a way, with bulls and bears fighting it out around a couple of support/ resistance levels in the dow.
I traded FAZ today, so you can imagine how dramatic that was. I suppose a good metaphor for the market day was the plane crash at the end...potentially a terrible disaster with horrific drama, but thankfully at the end of the day, everyone survives.
do you have an opinion on what will happen tomorrow? are you and tobydad still going long? or will you play it as it comes? i suppose the key question is, will you be looking to enter trades just before the close tomorrow, or exit them?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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QUOTE (george631)
I am a newer trader and would appreciate your input on stop losses.
George,
what are you using now?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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From the looks of the VIX we should be getting ready for a nice (brief) run up on this list. But keep in mind, as the VIX comes back to around mid-30's, we will be likely getting ready to finish a W pattern and then look out below for the markets. Or at least that looks like one scenario. We'll see how long the honeymoon lasts with the new President.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Dj, how are you my friend. I came home to find out that I was stopped out and the stock was on the rise again, but I am not one for the whip-saw game so stayed on the side lines to see what the end of day would look like on the SPX.
Yes BUCY is listed on the NASDAQ but most of the major indexes ended the day on a positive note. I will buy BUCY again even though I took a small loss today because I see a reversal doji pretty much across the entire markets. So I would be looking at entering BUCY this time above $19 I have to look at my scans as I already know by initial numbers that there will be a lot of good looking charts.
I never get chest pains; you see when I take losses like I have recently with a few stocks then I just remember the profits I made on the few stocks that I traded just before those. I just keep playing my way and I will win some and lose some.
My trades tomorrow will be based on what I see and how the markets react. I must admit that my success is diminished by my not being able to babysit my trades the way I used to. I am spending time right now putting in order some properties that I purchased and have been purchasing recently because I thought that I would be spending less time trading during this Bear Market. I almost regret my decision to do so as the markets are offering better money making opportunities. But I did what I did and although I would love to put forth all my energies into the markets right now, I am un-able to do so. My intentions were to just be prepared for the next Bull Market, it is very frustrating for me to watch trading opportunities slip through my fingers but I am a grown up and must live with my decisions. Believe me if you read my old posts - I hate using stops. But they are necessary when I cannot be here.
To answer you question I cannot give you an answer right now about tomorrows closing bell. I can only say that I expect a reversal in the markets and another rally next week.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/29/2008
Posts: 26
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QUOTE (tobydad)
QUOTE (george631)
I am a newer trader and would appreciate your input on stop losses.
George,
what are you using now?
Now I place stop orders just below what I consider the closest support for longs and closest resistance for shorts and then move them as the trade progresses and develops new support and resistance areas. But since I trade breakouts and breakdowns that support / resistance could be as much as 15% away from my entry price. I manage that by limiting the size of the trade so each trade only risks 2% of my capital.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/17/2008
Posts: 132
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thanks apsll. your approach seems to be the right one...its probably a blessing that at times you can't trade...the opportunity for quick losses abound too.most people seem to be of the opinion that tomorrow, and next week will be a strong rally. i think much of that is based on the dow testing its 8000 support, which wasn't convincingly broken. the TARP funds have been released. so 2 bits of good news right? here's an alternative scenario for your delectation...the market starts strongly. a rally is started, much like the one late this afternoon. it shoots up 100 points, then enters the area which was gapped down through on the morning of the 14th. then suddenly the shorts come back and drive things down to 7800! how's that for a scenario? it'll probably never happen...!p.s. difficult to know what effect if any BAC and C earnings releases will have before market open tomorrow moring...another confounding factor. bigblock, you seemed to imply that the 7500 support will be easily breached soon enough. i guess you too think it'll be a couple more weeks before we see that take place?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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George;
That's great, you've got some very good ideas. Now, the next question is, how do you decide what is the "closest resistance and support"?
Is it subjective? scenario based? mechanical? How do you decide?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/29/2008
Posts: 26
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Tobydad;
Right now I would call it subjective. I look at the chart and find either the last low before a new high, or the 20 day moving avg. Not really sofisticated, I admit.
George
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Registered User
Joined: 12/29/2008
Posts: 26
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Sorry, i meant "sophisticated"
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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It doesn't have to be sophisticated; but it has to be effective in the context of what you want to accomplish. Are you using limit orders or stop orders or stop limit orders or have you heard of and do you use conditional orders?
Also have you back tested your strategy? Do you watch the VIX or similar index for a sense of where we are in an overall market move?
These are all issues that will make me change my stops. On the most recent successful run, I put stops in to get me out of positions immediately under the previous day's close. I don't usually put stops that close but the VIX told me we were getting ready to cycle back down and it was time to be out of long positions. In a bull market, I wouldn't do that; I'd just let the winners keep running, even through a few pullbacks. But you can't do that in this market.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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By the way all, here is a complete list of stocks I'm looking through. I'll update as I comb through.
AHD
AIG
ANR
APEI
APL
APP
ATPG
ATW
BAC
BRY
BUCY
C
CLF
CNB
CPE
EMKR
EPL
EXM
FDP
FED
FEED
FNM
FOE
FORD
FST
GFA
GVHR
HTX
HUN
HWD
IO
JASO
LBY
LF
LPX
LULU
LZB
MEE
MEG
MFW
MTL
MTRX
NCOC
OFG
PCX
RIMM
RTP
SAY
SCR
SLG
SRX
SRZ
STSA
TLB
TRMS
TTES
VCI
VIP
XL
XTXI
ZLC
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Registered User
Joined: 6/24/2006
Posts: 15
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Thanks Apsll for the excellent stocks. My own picks these days share the same chart pattern. I guess great minds think alike. In my opinion, the best entry point for stocks with this pattern is when the DJ-30 MACD turns up and intersects. I don't use the stock's MACD as my primary indicator, only confirmation. I use the DJ-30 as my entry indicator because, as the saying goes, 'the trend is your friend'. At these levels, I like dividend payers, too, the bigger the better. There are tons of them sharing this pattern. Good luck and good trading!
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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QUOTE (tobydad) Be certain that you are not just jumping into any of these willy-nilly. Look for dojis on big volume with an obv uptick, LR30 support on candlestick, tsv26 over its ubb13 or even over 0. Find something that tells you we're turning around. I suspect we may see a nice short term pop out of these (or some of these) but you have to keep your head on a swivel. Somebody out there would like to earhole you (football talk).
Make sure you have a plan. Any plan you'll use consistently is better than no plan at all. Make sure that you hear that I said consistently.
Looks like we're in for another down day. Hopefully the pace of the slide down will increase. Then we'll hit something on the downhill slope that will allow the intense downward pressure to make the short term bounce up that much more robust.
Patience and courage are your two best tools right now if you're a swing trader like me. My portfolio increased over 50% on the last one week run up. That happened by waiting for the right time not by me being clever. I'm not very knowledgeable; I've just gotten beat up enough to learn to be patient.
Nice... congrats Tobydad !
curious if you can atrticulate what you call the "rigth time"... ? ? I'm noticing TONS of interesting opportunities lately also. More than I can buy. I on the other hand took a drop recently. Mostly things gapping against me. Got into a round of good stuff for this leg down and 2nd guessed my self ... cut it in 1/2 then disgusted with me I resolved to manage those EOD only as per the plan.. concequently My proffit eroded on the remainder of holdings today. GRRR.
but it's exciting what looks to be coming.
What about your money management? How big do you trade to get that kind of increase in one legg up? any on particular issue tha gave a windfall gain?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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DJOlde, I do not want to receive accolades for someone else’s hard work. In this thread are listed charts that Tobydad found not me. I just mentioned that I liked four of them and then proceeded to lose money on one of them for not playing it properly due to the fact that I could not stay home and manage the trade so I was forced to use a stop. (I wish now that I had put it in around $16 instead of a tight $16.90).
Hindsight is 20/20 so onto the next one. I do not use MACD or the set-ups that Tobydad uses. (Although at times we do find similar set-ups). Him and I are good friends and have been posting on this forum for a long time. But this is his hard work and not mine.
Apsll.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/29/2008
Posts: 26
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QUOTE (tobydad) It doesn't have to be sophisticated; but it has to be effective in the context of what you want to accomplish. Are you using limit orders or stop orders or stop limit orders or have you heard of and do you use conditional orders?
Also have you back tested your strategy? Do you watch the VIX or similar index for a sense of where we are in an overall market move?
These are all issues that will make me change my stops. On the most recent successful run, I put stops in to get me out of positions immediately under the previous day's close. I don't usually put stops that close but the VIX told me we were getting ready to cycle back down and it was time to be out of long positions. In a bull market, I wouldn't do that; I'd just let the winners keep running, even through a few pullbacks. But you can't do that in this market.
Tobydad,
I use straight stop orders, not stop limit orders because when the stop is hit I want to be out. That will cause a bad fill on some trades and save my skin on others. Perfection is difficult to obtain here. I've yet to use a conditional order but have been researching them in order to incorporate them into my trades.
I do not look at the VIX or any other index yet. Sounds like a very good strategy that I need to research more. Kind of like a "hold them or fold them" indicator for stop distances.
My backtesting is limited to creating scans that find high volume moves and paper trading for a while to get a sense for how well the trades work before trading smaller sizes for real. My focus right now is on trade entry, stop management and setting price/profit targets. Is it better to sell at a target price or trail a stop? Should I enter on an uptick or wait for a pullback to support? What is the right profit / stop ratio? Those questions are the ones I am dealing with right now.
Thanks for bearing with me here. It is clear I have a lot to learn.
George
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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George, I hope that you do not mind if I ask you a few questions. First off are you able to trade during market hours? If so you might not want to use stops. You saw what happened to me on BUCY. The obvious stop was right below the recent swing low and everyone knows that. The market makers sure know that and they love to take out stops. I like to think that hidden stops are good but again I would place them in obvious areas anyway, and no stop is going to protect you from the dreaded "GAP".
I trade very heavy in the Bull markets and do not use stops in most cases. My circumstances in these markets are different and thus so are my results.
Second do you short the market? If so then you might want to start preparing for that as I feel that the markets will be ripe for this very soon. In choppy markets it is difficult to say that this is where you should place your stop, because the markets can turn on a dime, take out stops, and do exactly the opposite of what your analysis has led you to believe.
There are no hard & fast rules when it comes to stops. You have to practice and see what works for you in different market environments.
This is my opinion and not meant to circumvent Tobydad impending advice to you.
Good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/29/2008
Posts: 26
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Thanks Apsll.
I do not trade during market hours so I depend on the stops and limits to get me into and out of trades. I don't trust myself enough yet to make these decisions on the fly so this works for me for now. I do short stocks and use the same stop/limit strategy for entry and exit. I am thinking that during an uptrending market I would allow the stops to be wider for longs and during a downtrending market I would allow the stops to be wider for the shorts.
George
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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"Is it better to sell at a target price or trail a stop? Should I enter on an uptick or wait for a pullback to support? What is the right profit / stop ratio? Those questions are the ones I am dealing with right now."
These are difficult questinos to answer because I think there is no hard truth.. the results of each will varry. As a general rule the wider the stop management method the bigger your gains will be on the winners but also the bigger your losses on loosers.
I use the Buy stop limit.. and it's safed me on some cases and hurt me on others. I"m not shure there is a clear better method.. what ever feels right and works best for you is probably best. I like the idea that for unforseen reasons any given pick can shoot way up .. using proffit targest cuts out that possibility for you.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I think we should be careful about generalizations made too broad (for which I am infamous); we need to be careful that less experienced traders not believe that they should always leave wider stop mgmt methods in place in order to maximize gains. It is very much situation specific.
I usually leave pretty wide margins for my stops but that would be in upward trending markets. In the existing conditions, when we get a little bounce and we have just a few days to go long, I'm accepting any reasonable profits and then tightening my stops right up to the point that i'm almost asking to get out. In other words, once I have some profit, I want out unless that stock is going to blast off the next morning.
Now that's just one scenario; it's not a catch all perspective. And there is not just one stop loss method because the method will vary with the goals or what one hopes to accomplish.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/24/2006
Posts: 15
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george631 Just watch your stocks.....DAILY and you wont need stops. Becasue of all this volitility, its very difficult so set trailing stops and there is nothing worse than getting stopped out right before a stock takes off.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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DJOlde;
I don't agree because I think George said he couldn't be there to watch his stocks all day. So stops or options are a good way to protect profits.
But you're certainly entitled to an opinion.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/29/2008
Posts: 26
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All,
Thanks for the input and apologies for being out of the loop for the past few days.
The main reasons I don't daytrade are 1.) I work at a job that limits my ability to watch my stocks all day. and 2.) equally as important I do not believe I can remove emotion from my decisions while in the line of fire.
To point #2 above. I am not sure I have developed the discipline yet to pull the trigger on a mental stop. I might let it run a bit just to see what it does and that is a recipe for disaster. Also, I have not figured out how to tell that the future direction of price would be to reverse from the downtrend that broke the stop level and begin rising shortly after the break. Given these limitations I stick to using stops to manage my exits.
Along the lines of trailing stops vs. fixed price targets I tend to agree with tobydad in that in a choppy market I would lean towards a fixed price target but in a trending market a trailing stop would seem more prudent. Some have spoken of using VIX or some other indicator to assist determinining whether we are near a top or bottem in the trend. I would be interested in understanding a bit more on that. Does VIX exists in TC200)? I have not found it yet. The worden market indicators look interesting and I need to research those a bit more.
Thanks again.
George
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