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Quession by Scottnlena
Ok i'm trying to get a grip on the FAN. The moving averages I need in the Template are What?
50, 80, 100, 150, 200?
this indicator:
((ABS(AVGC55-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC116-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC84-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC300-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC200-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC400-AVGC150))/AVGC150)*100
is a modification of the diceman? designed to measure compression points or decision points? And the moving averages 30 and 100 given to it are trigger lines? or is it an indicatro that tells me the poitn where allt he moving averages are lined up in "up trend order" ... but then what are the moving averages applied to it.
do you think this strategy or some modificatin of it might work well from weekly charts?
what other indicators do you think would be highly usefull in evaluating long term potential positions?
(aside from TSV and MS)
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The moving averges for my version of the Fan are -
55 sma
84 sma
116 sma
150 sma
200 sma
300 sma
400 sma
The indicator in the middle window is the Diceman like indicator ploted in yellow (Diceman made a big contribution to this by designing the indicator for me). The green dotted line is a 100 day moving average on the indicator and the orange line is a 30 day moving average on the indicator. The idea is that when the three lines converge and the yellow line emerges first from this convergence then you have a buy signal for either to go long or to go short.
In the botom window I have an indicator that shows when on the first day the moving averages are lined up in ascending order and the FAN is born and on its way...
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This is the post to my original thread -
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=22421
I would like to say at this time that in no way does my FAN PATTERN ideas co-exist with Sir Fan Patterns ideas. I built my system being totaly ignorant of the fact that others have done work in this area also. My indicators that I designed (with some help from my friend Diceman) are meant for my system alone and not meant to be used with any other works that resemble my Fan Pettern ideas. I was obviously not the first to come up with these ideas but then again the works of HNC's indicator was based on the works of Darrel Guppy and HNC just put his spin on things.
I am using my FAN PATTERN ideas in conjunction with my Bonanza Bottom Ideas. I thing that they fit well together. here is a link to that thread as well -
http://www.worden.com/training/default.aspx?g=posts&t=22743
Any more questions then feel free to ask me.
Apsll.
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so then the buy signal actually came in December int he example above .. and the confirmation of the Fan pattern is for extra confirmation on the hold analysis? or are you using it for criteria in a Scan or search? I'm sorry if this is irritating to you I just read my self silly on it... pluss not getting the greatest sleep lately.
could one not create a scan for the Yellow line emergence and then thro those candidates onto a watchlist to watch for further develpment?
I need to read the bonanza bottom thread before I get in to deep with questions, but i'll have more. Thanks for your paitence. Thanks also for creating the master thread here... Hopefully we can keep it centered to this topic.
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The percent true that shows when the fan is developing? is it still:
XAVGC55 > XAVGC84 AND XAVGC84 > XAVGC116 AND XAVGC116 > XAVGC150 AND XAVGC150 > XAVGC200 AND XAVGC200 > XAVGC300 AND XAVGC300 > XAVGC400 AND NOT(XAVGC55.1 > XAVGC84.1 AND XAVGC84.1 > XAVGC116.1 AND XAVGC116.1 > XAVGC150.1 AND XAVGC150.1 > XAVGC200.1 AND XAVGC200.1 > XAVGC300.1 AND XAVGC300.1 > XAVGC400.1)
BEcause i'm looking at it on BIIB and I get the typical spikes but not the move up that stays up while the condition is true that you have. As I recall I had trouble with this indicator before. could you please post the latest versions here if you don't mind?
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Also on BIIB with the middle indicator my buy signal would be on 7/24? There was an earlier one around 5/4 07 and then the fan was actualized on 5/30?
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I have my indicators from the original post - and my top level signal actualized at 5/30 - but my middle window gives the buy signal on 6/5
This is my formula:((ABS(XAVGC55-XAVGC200)+ABS(XAVGC116-XAVGC200)+ABS(XAVGC300-XAVGC200)+ABS(XAVGC150-XAVGC200)+ABS(XAVGC84-XAVGC200)+ABS(XAVGC400-XAVGC200))/XAVGC200)*100
Exponential with a smoothing average of 1
crossing it's 100ema
Very nice chart - hasn't been affected by the "troubles" at all
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Here's my bottom window formula:
XAVGC55 > XAVGC84 AND XAVGC84 > XAVGC116 AND XAVGC116 > XAVGC150 AND XAVGC150 > XAVGC200 AND XAVGC200 > XAVGC300 AND XAVGC300 > XAVGC400
Simple, Smoothing average=1
My spikes stay up and run across the top of the bottom window as long as the fan conditions are in place
For BIIB
down 3/2/05
up 12/15/06
down 3/6/07
up 5/30/07
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I have so much more to learn, but these are the exact type of thread I love to see. Thank you so much.
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Hohandy ... Thanks. I looks like only a slight modification to the version I was using
XAVGC55 > XAVGC84 AND XAVGC84 > XAVGC116 AND XAVGC116 > XAVGC150 AND XAVGC150 > XAVGC200 AND XAVGC200 > XAVGC300 AND XAVGC300 > XAVGC400 AND NOT(XAVGC55.1 > XAVGC84.1 AND XAVGC84.1 > XAVGC116.1 AND XAVGC116.1 > XAVGC150.1 AND XAVGC150.1 > XAVGC200.1 AND XAVGC200.1 > XAVGC300.1 AND XAVGC300.1 > XAVGC400.1)
Which returns to the base line the day after the conditions are met. I think I'll stick with the version i'm using as it creates a less cluttered chart. unless there is som sorting method using this indicator i missed.
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AVGC55 > AVGC84 AND AVGC84 > AVGC116 AND AVGC116 > AVGC150 AND AVGC150 > AVGC200 AND AVGC200 > AVGC300 AND AVGC300 > AVGC400 AND NOT(AVGC55.1 > AVGC84.1 AND AVGC84.1 > AVGC116.1 AND AVGC116.1 > AVGC150.1 AND AVGC150.1 > AVGC200.1 AND AVGC200.1 > AVGC300.1 AND AVGC300.1 > AVGC400.1)
This is the formula that shows the first day (Percent True indicator) that the moving averages all lined up in ascending order. (bottom window)
AVGC55 > AVGC84 AND AVGC84 > AVGC116 AND AVGC116 > AVGC150 AND AVGC150 > AVGC200 AND AVGC200 > AVGC300 AND AVGC300 > AVGC400
This is the formula that will stay true as long as the moving averages are alined in ascending order. (bottom window)
((ABS(AVGC55-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC116-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC84-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC300-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC200-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC400-AVGC150))/AVGC150)*100
This is the formula for the middle window (yellow line) I use a 100 day sma and a 30 day sma on the indicator to generate early buy signals or you can wait for confirmation from the bottom window indicators.
The middle window indicator can be confusing because like the Diceman indicator, the lower the indicator is then the closer together the moving averages are, and the higher the indicator is then that means the further apart the moving averages are. It does not however tell you what direction price is moving. The yellow line crossing its moving averages (the 100 day or the 30 day) can be an early buy signal for shorting the stock as well as going long.. If you understand how the HNC/Diceman indicator works then you should have no trouble with this one.
I do not visit the forum from Saturday evening to Monday morning, sory for that but I have other obligations.
I hope that this has helped everyone, and Scott I do not mind answering all your questions. Keep them coming.
Apsll.
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"If you understand how the HNC/Diceman indicator works then you should have no trouble with this one."
Yea I think I understand it.. I was using it as a scan criteria and sorting criteria. I didn't realize that crossing up through its ma was simply a signal which could be either way.... but that seems familiar to what Iremember about the diceman not that I think of it.
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Question:
do you think there is value in scanning for this criteria? or do you prefer to sort out this criteria from some other base list? I'm thinking of building a scan. This seems like a Good intelegent version of and institutionalaly backed "NEW TREND" scan.
The thing is i'm thinking of trying to stream line everything for my short term and long term aproaches. Hopefully my short term aproach will become a bit longer any way BUT the reason is I soon will not have time. I'll bee home alone with the baby next semester as the wife returns to work... then the following semester I return to School to finish my degree (HUZZAT ! and much cheering), if I can finaly pick a major direction. Any way I don't see myself spending quite as much time in front of the computer as I do now. My hope is to focus my strategy and stream line it in such a way that I know generaly what my probabilities are for varouis conditions with the strategy and trade the highest probability strategy as it seems apropriate.
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So I'm gonna start building a scan for some of this condition and bounce some of the ideas here.
At first thought I'm thinking:
All Stocks (Or per perhaps component list of the Russel 3000, the nasdaq and S&P 500)
Optionable - true
Volume over 100,000 (perhaps for the last 20 days or some period of time)Or some market capitalization criteria.
the long term Diceman Set to a low range but not the lowest.... becasue we want it to be beginning to swing up.((ABS(AVGC55-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC116-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC84-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC300-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC200-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC400-AVGC150))/AVGC150)*100
some trend filter to remove downward breakouts
price > 50MA ?
or price > 50 ma and 20 ma > than 50 ma?
Possibly some minimum TSV and Moneystream reading... this could also be a sorting criteria, doing a double sort to bring the strongest in terms of those two to the top of the list.
Or a MacD reading or Stochastics of some setting apropriate to the time frame in question.
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Scott, I do not know of any way to simplify these trading strategies. Diceman is the best one to ask about that. I have read several post by him that he would like to have an automatic system ( Auto-pilot).
You say that you will not have a lot of spare time comming up (got to take care of the little one).
I would just park your money into a mutual fund or somthing like that until you can devote your time back to trading.
I have a list of stocks that I am cultivating right now (Bonanza Bottoms). When they break their bottoms and then triger a buy signal from the following indicator crossing its moving averages, then I will apply my Trade management skills and buy them.
((ABS(AVGC55-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC116-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC84-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC300-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC200-AVGC150)+ABS(AVGC400-AVGC150))/AVGC150)*100
(IMO) you have to work your trading strategy, all the time. I do not know if others will agree with me but unless you are Diceman or Davidjohnhall you have to eat, drink, breath and sleep this stuff.
Scott, when the market starts to trend again, and it will then your TSV system will prosper. Since you designed it then implimenting the strategy will be easy for you.
I hope that I have not discouraged you, but I gave you my opinion.
Apsll.
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Scott, To answer your original question, I would rather sort out this criteria from some other base list. I prefer doing my own filtering so that I can see what kind of stocks I am eliminating, as opposed to leaving it up to the computer. I like starting out with a big list and then chiping away at it sort by sort.
I am soon ready to re-enter the market. Take a look at TWTI. These will be the type of charts that I will looking for, see how the pattern has evolved from a Bonanza Bottom to the buy signal in the early stages of the Fan Pattern.
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yea, Bonanza bottom was kinda brief.. What I carried away from reading it was that you are looking for volume surges during a suspect bottoming pattern. Thos IMO will generally also manifest them selves in improving MS and TSV readings if not divergent. Ithink there could be some nice discussions there in exploring some more charts in the bonanza bottom.
Before I stick my foot in my mouth I should re read it to find the outlined, core characteristics. Not tonight though.
Spent the day on the kayak in a large lake. 3-5mph winds made a nice chop and now i'm staggering around the house like coming home with the rythem of the ocean in you. I caught a Catfish as long as my leg... had it in the boat... was trying to remove my lure from it's mouth and it started flopping so I let go (I've had that lead to a hand full of hooks before.. and once I got a hook somewhere else ) and right over the side he went with my expensive Smith whick lure still in his mouth.  If it werent for the hooks pinning his mouth shut I could have gotten my whole fist in his mouth (not that i'd want to)) Bastard didn't even let me get he camera out yet! so now I have no proof.
so i'm just goofing with a few chart ideas and starting to look throught he fan strategy for potential setups.
Reguarding TWTI ... you don't think it's a little over bought right now?
concretely speaking what is it that has you thinking of reentering the market?
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so i'm cleaning out some watchlists and my fundamental page in my work book getting ready for a new cycle (God I hate doing fundamentals).
And I wanted to run a few by you to see your thoughts on where they are in this process Bonanza Bottom/Fan progression.
SWIM -super low reading on the long term dieman/Apsll
Interesting volume pattern Reminescent of FLO.
Do yo see this hitting $10.66 before
actualizing a FAN?
NDAQ -I personaly think this and its competitor will do well soon. I've been watchign and trading NDAQ off and on for a While now. The delisted it for a bit and look at it now.. Dang. but I looks like a fan is unfolding. Recent volume may not be confirming the Bonanza bottom though. I'm showing a near crossover on the D/A long term and it's 100.
NYX - I have continued to watch this one as well though it is trending down I've been trading in and out of it moslty long each time I get a good looking candle and the distance from the 20 is extreme IMO. It has multiple divergences that are most Acute and visible on the 2 day charts for TSV and MS, as well as STO and MACD/H.
GME - what doyou think of this? i've been watching this since it's split and everytime I think it's time to get in I then think it's time for a retracement and miss the entry and have to wait for another entry ... which I missed. I would have been good to have just bought it and held it and shut up... but you never know that at the time.
then goofing with sorting methods I came up with
WWY
EBAY
DELL
STJ
JAVA
I'm not to pleased with those. I need to rethink the sorting process. possibly by the % true indicator?
What do you make of situations like TAP?
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I'm guessing that CVH is considered a prime example of what you are looking for?
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Scott, I like
EBAY
STJ
WWY
NDAQ
As I stated in another thread, For a Bonanza Bottom the stock has to be in a clear bottom formation and ready to break-out.
Some of the stocks that you are showing me are Momentum stocks, stocks that have already moved out of the bottom and failed to develope a fan, or IPO's.
Look at:
ECIL
CFW
PWAV
to get a clear picture of a bonanza bottom
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thanks.
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Scott, I thought that you might be interested in some more work that I have been doing on moving averages. I know a while back that you had mentioned the 20 day sma relative to the 50 day sma. Well I have come up with this -
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It occurred to me that it might be interesting to see what a stock chart might look like when the 20 day sma is already above the 50 day sma and then the 50 day sma crosses the 200 day sma.
I found that looking back on some charts that it was very interesting indeed. I decided to design a Diceman type indicator that would show us when these three moving averages were in close proximity to each other (I made the indicator not visible, but instead added a visible 8 day sma, and to that I added a 20 day sma to genarate a buy signal). I also designed a percent true indicator that would tell us when the 20 day sma was above the 50 day sma and that the 50 day sma was also above the 200 day sma.
Look at the double buy signal that was generated on November 30th 2006 (I wonder how often that will happen)? Any way here are all the formulas. Let me know what you think.
((ABS(AVGC20-AVGC110)+ABS(AVGC50-AVGC110)+ABS(AVGC200-AVGC110))/AVGC110)*100
This will be for the Diceman type indicator.
(AVGC20>AVGC50)AND(AVGC50>AVGC200)
This will be for the percent true
Good luck.
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Gentlemen, Hope you've all covered your shorts.
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Forgive me.. I'm a bit tired. the percent true indicator is a buy signal and continue to hold signal when it spikes and then while it stays up respectively?
The one I was using earlier I couldn't get to make the flat tops .. just spikes so I probably have something wrong.
On this, I like it. It fits more the type of swing I was trying to capure. I use the 20,40, and 50 (though now that I think of it the formula is calculated for the 35 I think). Then a 100 as a base line. As I mentioned earlier, I was distraced by all the lines from the HNC template and they were often tiny swings. At the time I wanted to grab slightly larger swings, and I noticed that the larger Mas had a similar affect of highliting larger decision points... so I tried it with my three moving averages and use the 100 as a proxy for all the long term Ma's and it seems to work well.(And for other reasons I use the 100)
TGI was a recent find as well as RBC. these were the ideal for my system.. they came during a low reading on the diceman type indicator
((ABS(XAVGC20 - XAVGC35) + ABS(XAVGC40 - XAVGC35) + ABS(XAVGC50 - XAVGC35)) / XAVGC35) * 100.
is the version I have been using. And they gave me my joint signal during an up trend while the Ma's were compressed.
XAVG(TSV,24) > 0 AND XAVG(TSV1.1,24) <= 0 and MS > XAVG(MS,25) AND MS1.1 <= XAVG(MS1.1,25)
This is the exact setup that I prefer to favor as this based on my study had the highest probabilities for good trades. Other scenarios were good as well but not as high. Knowing what the probabilities are is good so that risk can be lowered by lowering share size or being more picky on the other scenarios where the joint signals comes. Also notice that I had the addition boon on RBC of the volume leading price yesterday. That was the only order I entered this morning as Ihad others still open and a few positions I was sucking air on already.
I'll make this template tonight and play with it a bit tomorrow. Thanks.
Scott.
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Laphill I wore pants today.
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Scott, I plotted both your indicators in the bottom window of my Template and your indicators actually give earlier signals than mine. Thank you for sharing. I can use my indicators to confirm yours, This makes quit a neat Template for sorting my watchlist.
By the way I am soon going to start buying short term trades only. I do not want to commit myself to any long term situations just yet.
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I've been doing it..and doing OK. Only had one bad day wipe out a chunk of gains but by and large it's two steps fwd on back one step fwd 1.5 back three steps fwd .5 back 2 steps fwd 1.75 back.... But still managing to average up in the right direction.
I gotta say that TGI and RBC were excellent examples of the ideal ... They were great trades. I Dumped ENZN today for a small loss... Unfortunately I ahd a large number of shares so now my win loss by Shares is off becasue I took a couple of losses to larger holdings GRRR.
Thank for the feedback. Oh The percent true indicator??
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