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Profile: nyquil
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User Name: nyquil
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Joined: Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Last Visit: Wednesday, February 14, 2007 10:51:25 AM
Number of Posts: 13
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Last 10 Posts
Topic: FICC - Dead Cat Bouncing?
Posted: Thursday, February 8, 2007 5:25:28 PM
Fell through the support today, down more than 11 percent. Thankfully I had a already grab my money and ran a couple days ago. Thanks for the good advice guys.
Topic: Signs (Both Subtle and Obvious) Pointing to Impending Disaster in otherwise OK-Looking Stocks (e.g.
Posted: Sunday, February 4, 2007 6:09:40 PM
QUOTE (nyquil)


P.S: interestingly if you look at my example, a 20% gapped down in ABC actually hurt you a lot less than a 20% gapped down in XYZ even thou you bought 6666 shares of ABC comparing to only 2000 shares of XYZ. In fact, a 4,000 dollar loss comparing to a 12,000 dollar loss. An 8% loss comparing to a 24% loss. Just to show how important it is to understand risk management.


My bad, my caculation was off. $4000.00 comparing to $8000.00 loss. 8% compared to 16%.
Topic: Signs (Both Subtle and Obvious) Pointing to Impending Disaster in otherwise OK-Looking Stocks (e.g.
Posted: Sunday, February 4, 2007 6:05:48 PM
QUOTE (mmlmedv)

If the stock price is $3.00, you would buy 300 shares (total $900). (Usually the stop loss is much smaller on cheaper stock and you can buy more shares)
The idea is not to risk more per trade than you allow for your account and to calculate it using the stop loss point BEFORE the transaction.
If you use the same amount on all trades, I think it is wise to have different purchase amounts for penny stocks and more expensive ones.


From what I understand, it's call position sizing. For example, if you start with 50,000.00 account, and your risk tolerance is 2% per trade. That equals to $1000.00 loss per bad trade. Let support you buy stock XYZ at 20.00 right above support and your stop loss order is under the support at 19.50. This trading plan will allow you to buy 2000 shares of XYZ. If you get stop out at 19.50 with 2000 shares, you'll loss exactly 2% of your account value.

Let's say if you buy stock ABC at $3.00 per share and your stop is at $2.85. With the same $50,000.00 account size and the 2% risk management rule, you'll be allow to buy 6666 shares. ( 50000 x 2% / 0.15 )

This is fine money and risk management under normal trading circumstances. But even then you will still get hurt very bad if the stock you buy is highly speculative and news dependent. And if that stock gapped down 20% in value before you get stopped out, it will still be very ugly.

P.S: interestingly if you look at my example, a 20% gapped down in ABC actually hurt you a lot less than a 20% gapped down in XYZ even thou you bought 6666 shares of ABC comparing to only 2000 shares of XYZ. In fact, a 4,000 dollar loss comparing to a 12,000 dollar loss. An 8% loss comparing to a 24% loss. Just to show how important it is to understand risk management.
Topic: ONNN
Posted: Saturday, February 3, 2007 3:58:21 PM
QUOTE (jpendley)
.

Saw some weakness in the price bids near noon, so sold the remainder at 9.82, so the whole amount gain was about $1.10 per share. I would like to buy back in ONNN for a longer term once this quarter shakes out, if the price is attractive.




That's nice gain jpendley, almost 20%. A hell lot better than my 3% short play lol. Dammit. I needed it too. Gonna find something else to short.
Topic: Positive and Negative divergences--benefits, drawbacks, and case studies
Posted: Thursday, February 1, 2007 11:09:57 PM
QUOTE (rmr1976)

That was essentially my point. It is percentage returns that matter, and at higher prices, it is harder to identify where a stock is "overvalued", while bottoms are relatively easier to identify, because the point values are larger, making stop placement more difficult.

There are a few charting methods that do not take this volatility relationship into account, however.


QUOTE (rmr1976)

Positive divergences lend themselves to stops based on breaks of support. Bottoms are more easily identified that tops, so the signal that a trend is resuming to the downside is fairly clear. I've noticed that these breaks of support are often accompanied by spikes in volume.

For negative divergences, stops based on price are likely to get you whipsawed if they are set fairly close. I've seen numerous instances of a divergence signal being given, having the stock spike up to a slightly higher high, and then fall sharply in a short amount of time.



I don't get it. Why would a bottom be easier to identify than a top?

Let's look at AMD, OVTI, RHT, and XMSR. Where's the bottom for AMD? I have no idea. OVTI? I got in couple days ago when I saw a triple doji, but had to get out quickly 2 days later when I saw a long upper shadow reversal signal, there's no luxury of a divergence to tell me, ok we may be near a bottom, and even if there is a signal, should I really trust it? RHT gapped and sell down pretty badly due to news from competitor, and seems that sell off was an over reaction and it recover nicely the next day, but would I be that confident to catch a falling knife that way? I sure as hell was very tempted thou :) but anyway. XMSR did give a reliable divergence signal.

So the same question, is the bottom really easier to spot than the top? I find it more difficult.
Topic: Positive and Negative divergences--benefits, drawbacks, and case studies
Posted: Thursday, February 1, 2007 12:06:36 PM
I don't know why but most of the time I look for negative divergence instead of a positive one. Most of the time at least I can catch a little pull back. I wouldn't bet it as catching a trend reversal thou because lots of times it goes higher and higher. But when that happens I would think it is good time to go short again.

Basically, I like to see the price make a new high, then have a fairly good pull back due to whatever reason, then runs significantly higher again, but due to the previous pull back the indicator will be lower, hence a divergence.

Most recent play was ONNN, it gap up 3 days ago with negative divergence, I catch a little pull back then get out. Others I can think of was NTGR, NVDA, STEC, and TRT. IBM as well, I thought it was a good short when it top 100's but I didn't get in that one thou.
Topic: ONNN
Posted: Thursday, February 1, 2007 9:11:00 AM
Running almost to 9.00 in the premarket, congrats to jpendley
Topic: FICC - Dead Cat Bouncing?
Posted: Wednesday, January 31, 2007 11:21:05 PM
lol, alright. I was hoping to sell at 4 for a nice gain too! I must admit this bounce is pretty weak.
Topic: ONNN
Posted: Wednesday, January 31, 2007 3:47:11 PM
Hi Mills, this may sound boring but I decided not to hold through. The trading today was choppy as hell, up and down, up and down. I thought if it can close below the 8.30 support then I will risk it, but seems unlikely so...
Topic: FICC - Dead Cat Bouncing?
Posted: Wednesday, January 31, 2007 12:45:57 PM
Previous RUN:

01/09/07 Low 3.40 -- High 4.19
01/24/07 Low 3.38 -- High 3.71
01/29/07 Low 3.36 -- High ????