Welcome Guest, please sign in to participate in a discussion. Search | Active Topics |

Profile: richnaylor
About
User Name: richnaylor
Groups: Gold User, Member, TeleChart
Rank: Registered User
Real Name:
Location
Occupation:
Interests:
Gender: Unsure
Statistics
Joined: Saturday, March 12, 2005
Last Visit: Monday, July 11, 2016 5:28:58 PM
Number of Posts: 6
[0.00% of all post / 0.00 posts per day]
Avatar
Last 10 Posts
Topic: VIX
Posted: Monday, March 21, 2005 3:58:05 PM
Check out worden's notes 10/19/2004 in which a player has devised a timing tool using the VIX. Don Worden correctly pointed out that the indicator will fail when the market lifts off and runs (or the reverse) but I have looked back several years and it is excellent in a sideways "trading range" market. It often leads by a few days, which is helpful. Use stops!
Topic: media general
Posted: Friday, March 18, 2005 9:01:26 AM
I have just recieved my new disk for telechart gold and the media general industry watch list isn't there? what gives - gone forever? How do we monitor industry sectors? Thx
Topic: Beating the S&P 500
Posted: Friday, March 18, 2005 8:54:14 AM
This is generally statisticly true, perticularly with reference to mutual funds. However the impulse to index was one of the causes of the insanity of the tech bubble. In the last cycle, for example, if one didn't buy lots of Cisco, JDSU etc. one could not hope to match the index on the way up - and yet the valuations were absurd to anyone with a practised eye. Cisco, for example, when it had a market cap of 600B and was forecast by PRU to go to 1.2 Trillion would have been about 11% of the then GDP. The money kept pouring into index funds (or quasi index funds - virtually every large fund out there - except for just a few- and therefore money kept going into the Cisco's of the world. When everyone had finally spent their money the whole thing unravelled. Index investors in the S&P fell 50% and in the Q's 70%. So - the reward of the index investor is to participate in "the madness of crowds" and suffer the consequences. It is far better to use some sensible valuation criteria, such as contained in Peter Lynch's books (PEG ratio), use some common sense, and keep an eye on the supply demand picture as per the Worden service.
Topic: Any Elliott Wave students here?
Posted: Friday, March 18, 2005 8:42:28 AM
Many thanks, very interesting. I was always under the impression that Elliot is difficult as it is sometimes difficult to define when to start counting the waves. Looking at the weekly chart starting at the bottom in 2000 I see three distinct up swings, with the fourth underway presently. Where am I gooing wrong?
Topic: Any Elliott Wave students here?
Posted: Thursday, March 17, 2005 9:11:05 PM
what is it telling you about HOV?
Topic: group indices in telechart gold
Posted: Thursday, March 17, 2005 9:08:38 PM
I just got my new disk with telechart gold and I see we don't have the group indices. This is a pity because I have found using the "change" feature on the S&P, finding the best groups over a period, and drilling down to find the best stocks was a great help. Is it gone forever?

I see we have a lot of ETF's instead, but one cannot sort them in the same way.

Any thoughts? Thx