| fjames3 |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Tuesday, December 7, 2004 |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2015 3:26:09 PM |
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A few more things on shorting (from my experience):
facts
- the most you can ever make is 100%, you can loose infinity (if you don't enforce buy/sell rules of course)
- if you are short a stock and it pays a dividend, YOU pay the dividend (your brokerage will deduct it from your account on the ex-dividend date)
opinions
- short stocks with low Short Interest Ratio's (i like lower than 2) keeping in mind that stocks with high ratio's have a lot more shorts needing too cover (which turns them into buyers making the stock go up)
- look for stocks bumping up against major averages from below. if they fail to go back through, they are good shorts.
- don't overstay. shorting is more profitable if you take quick 10-30% gains versus waiting for bigger gains over a long time. shorting is not a buy and hold game.
- strictly inforce stops and protect your gains with trailing stops
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I saw a chap a few days ago on CNBC squawking about the DOW going to 13,500 by the end of the year. He gave all standard pats coming out nowadays --- S&P companies have had 13 straight quarters of double digit profit growth, unemployment low, inflation in check, housing market done correcting and it hasn't/isn't going to have a rollover effect, interest rates still very accomodative and the next move by the fed will be down, stock options scandal behind us and probably a few others that I forgot.
They never asked him what he was smoking nor if he was selling at the same time he was telling others to buy.
Because most of the above are lies or manipulation/fabrication of data, I think the market is set up perfectly for the big bang. May start tomorrow if fed guys have the guts to do what they should - raise rates.
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I have been watching intra-days on certain stocks (namely Monsanto -MON - for this example) and have recognized that a significant number of trades in large blocks trade after the bell (usually witin 20 minutes)and typically at one price. This is after trades of 100, 200, 500 shares trading up to the close.
For Monsanto this pattern has been 10-15% of the entire days trading volume. Today it occured in 13 trades of 13,300 shares and 1 trade of 27,700. Often the price is not even within the bid/ask price at closing. This is a daily occurance, not an anomaly.
Could you tell me why this is happening?
Thanks
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I notice when the Wordens do analysis that sometimes they use simple moving averages (like 50day, 200day etc.) and at other times use exponential. I've tried to figure out the logic when they use each but have been unable to. Is there criteria that they or others doing tech analysis in the markets use to determine which to use when?
Thanks
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