| mbryantatl |
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| Monday, December 13, 2010 |
| Monday, September 19, 2011 12:27:19 AM |
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QUOTE (pthegreat) I just ran into this youtube video, and eventhough my impulses were to close it, and write it off to lala land, my "out of the box" thinking part of my brain, kept me from doing so.
Gann apparently applied astrology to his trading methods. I have not read any Gann materials.
Just wondering if there are any traders here that feel there's any value in this. (wow, how would you get these charts in stockfinder  )
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0BhlY6dPP0
PtheGreat,
I would google Jeff Cooper if you want to learn more about Gann techniques and things like the square of 9, which Cooper uses in tandem with his swing trading methods and cycle work.
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Hey guys,
With today's lower low on the SP500 around 1299/1300 we have what we did not on Jan 28th/Feb1st/Feb2nd and that is follow through the day after the close through the Reference Close level, which is 1328 on the SP 500.
So we have a slight bounce so far off 1300 and now with the lower low after the Reference Close breakthrough, one should watch how high this rise will come and it should not close above that 1328 level.
More likely, if we get a good push tomorrow we may get to the 1310s or maybe even to the 1323-1325 level.
Frankly a rise to the 1323-1325 level would be a gift and a short there with a stop above 1328 would be a good risk reward level and what the Demark Reference Close is supposed to help you with in regards to figuring out if the trend is changing and what risk levels to watch to bail on the trade.
Definitely appears a change in character is at hand and comparing the behavior here in the next day with the behavior after the Jan 28th drop is a great way to see how things are developing.
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Hi PtheGreat and DayRangers,
Here's a Bloomberg chart for the SP500 weekly to see how it relates to your counts on Stockfinder(bottom of post).
Looked at the Perl Demark book as P mentioned for Reference Close on page 65. For a Reference Close Down, it is the low close of the last 4 bars (Opposite for Ref Close Up).
In Relative Retracement on page 108 of Jason Perl's book there is the 3 scenario or conditions to watch to get out of a sell based on price action relative to the Reference Close. This would have saved you on the last dip on the Friday big drop to 1270ish when on Monday and Tuesday (Jan 31 Feb 1st) the market did not react and follow through with the selling pressure but reversed.
P, you may want to look at that one as a programming method as it seems quite useful for when to get out of a sell trade. Buys are the exact opposite.
Here's the conditons:
1) If the open of the price bar following a qualified downside break is above the TD Reference Close level, exit your short position on the open.
2) If the bar following a qualified downside break opens above the close of the breakdown bar(bar closing below the Ref Close Down or downside break bar) and also closes above the TD Reference Close Down , exit your position on the close.
3) If the low of the bar following the qualified downside break is above the low of the breakdown bar, exit your position on the close.
One thing you can see below which Bloomberg does better than what I've seen programmed here at stockfinder is the parallel of concurrent buy and sell setups while countdowns are taking place. We have a 9-13-9 daily sell (not on chart) and from the chart we are on track for a weekly 13 sell countdown with a perfected sell with a weekly close above 1310.87 (Also FYI see TD Reference Close on weekly is 1276 which held last downside daily push on Jan 31st, 2011. Somtimes higher timeframes can exert their pressure to affect or end daily price trends. Higher timeframes are always more important, especially in Demark methodology.)
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Hi Pthe Great,
I must have been thinking of the retracements or propulsion as I've seen it listed as being in the book, but I did not find it when I looked, unless it's under another name.
Here's Demark Pivot Points which has some similar points of emphasis. I'll try to see if I can find the explanation of reference close, but so far it has been hard to find.
DeMark Pivot Points
The formula used in the calculation of the Tom DeMark " Pivot Points" are:
The value of X in the formula below depends on where the Close of the market is.
If Close < Open then X = (H + (L * 2) + C)
If Close > Open then X = ((H * 2) + L + C)
If Close = Open then X = (H + L + (C * 2))
R1 = X / 2 - L
PP = X / 4 (this is not an official DeMark number but merely a reference point based on the calculation of X)
S1 = X / 2 - H
Where R1 is the upper Resistance level, PP is the Pivot Point, S1 is the lower support level. |
Hello pthegreat,
Take a look at this summary below on TD Ref Close from Kevin Depew, which explains how one might use it. This might be a good candidate as an indicator and it appears it could add good info to decision making and support the other TD methods you have programmed to date. It is in Perl's book.
Today we're going to look at how TD Reference Close helps get us out of trades that fail. On January 13, the SP recorded a TD Sequential 13 sell signal. The confirming bearish price flip recorded on Jan. 19. And the subsequent bar produced a low exceeding that so all is well, right? Wrong.
The value of TD Reference Close is it validates "good" trend reversals so we do not get trapped in false breakdowns.
With the level at 1270.40 as of Jan. 20, what we were watching closely after the bearish price flip was a close below TD Reference Close. Instead, the market dipped below it, but rallied back. This was a signal that perhaps things aren't working out as planned. One could exit the trade immediately on the close of the TD Reference Close failure, or even choose to give the market the benefit of the doubt.
The next opportunity to close below TD Reference Close was Jan 28 at 1287.60. While we got the close below TD Ref Close, the next bar follow through (a low exceeding the prior bar's) was insufficient to demonstrate a "good" trend reversal.
Finally, the market then close above TD Reference Close up on three occasions and qualified a break above the TD Risk Level at 1298.
Often, people like to view DeMark as a system, but it is not. The indicators are objective but adaptive. There is no "set it and forget it" in trading. At least not that I have found.
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Hi Pthe Great,
I was wondering if you were going to take a look at the TD Propulsion indicator. Have you error proofed that on yet? Generally, I like that indicator for longer term trend validation (the ole qualification in Demark speak) and for possible target expectation.
On Minyanville today, the gold target on the weekly was discussed, although it was for futures so you'd have to adjust a little for the GLD. Anyways, the weekly Prop down level on gold futures is 1343 and the rise today and possibly going into next week may just get it above that level so that qualification can take place. (up day above the level, drop below the level next day, 3rd day opens lower and must hit an intraday at least 1 tick lower during the day)
If qualified, then the Prop Target level is 1250ish.
On a daily basis, gold futures have already qualified a TDST down at 1350.
So unlike the media is saying, this gold move up on fear may be short lived and a good shorting opportunity if things stick to the Demark rules.
If you get a chance, I'd love to take a look at the Prop indicator. Relative retracement may be another one which you might be interested in as well as it uses Fibonacci pcts to find levels to watch for in regards to support and resistance. Of course , it's all in Perl's book.
Have a great weekend!
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Hello PtheGreat,
I did not know if you saw that Tom Demark is calling for a 11% correction to commence in the next 1 to 2 weeks. It is not often that he comes out with something so public so it's probably wise to take note.
On another note, here is an update regarding Demark counts via Bloomberg and from Kevin Depew of Minyanville to help with corroborating what the counts look like via the Bloomberg consoles, although I do not have a chart for you per se.
As mentioned today will be the first decent opportunity to get bearish price flips on the indexes to confirm recent DAILY TD Sequential 13 sell signals.
Of course, the main problem is WEEKLY exhaustion has not yet occurred.
We're still at least a week and more likely 3-4 weeks away from seeing aligning exhaustion signals occur on the indices.
Some TD Sequential 13 buy sell signal scans: Buy: ABT; Sell: A, CMI, CVC, HOG, JPM, PMI, RIG, SNDK, XL
Way more sell signals than buy signals.
Also note we continue to get sell signals in the banks. This after commentators have begun getting very chippy in touting bank stocks. The trend is your friend until it's the end.
(Note - everything below here is weekly)
On a WEEKLY basis, we recorded a TD Sequential sell signal the week of
October 15, with an overlapping 9 on November 5 week that produced a
shallow four bar correction.
This is week 10 of a potential 13. So I
see at least a couple of weeks before the possibility of WEEKLY
exhaustion appears.
The TD Propulsion target of 1287.42 has been hit. (See pages starting at 121 in Perl's book) Propulsion Up and Prop Up Target are best for longer term analysis in my opinion as a way to gauge exhaustion of a major trend. I would say it heightens risk of a topping out and a reversal. Typically when Prop Up or Prop Down is qualified (same as TDST method) then a move is expected to the Target Up or Target Down before the trend exhausts. As you can see we have hit this level so risk is high!
The reference bar for the potential 13 is bar 8, which has a high of
1278.17 and a close of 1271.50. As well, this is overlapping bar 7
this week of a potential 9 sell setup.
For perfection, the high either
next week or the week after must exceed the high established this
week.
For those who are looking to play a downside move, I would focus
on the SP futures, however, and be less concerned with precision on
the cash index. Remember, the cash index opens and closes are really
just estimates while the SP futures are traded prices. The SP futures
are also on a WEEKLY bar 10 of a potential 13. The reference bar 8 is
1274.30 high and a close of 1267.50.
Hope this helps P and thanks so much for putting your charts on the shared list.
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Hello Pthegreat,
I have read Perl's book and follow Kevin Depew's Demark analysis at Minyanville. Your charts are great and I was very interested in your chart which shows graphical counts for both TD Setup-9 and TD sequential countdown-13.
I was wondering if you could share this version of you chart on the Stockfinder shared chart list. I've seen you have posted various charts but I did not see one which had the sequential countdown like your chart above from Dec 16th.
Myself, I am just getting into using Realcode, but I think it offers great opportunities for getting the most out of Demark methodologies.
You may also be interested in Demark Propulsion Up and Target and Down and Target, which cna be used as qualifiers for major trends and to measure when a trend may be ending.
Here's an update of today's Demark summary from Depew. In the last few weeks, there has been a bunch of weekly sequential sell signals on most of the major stock indexes, which these signals should remain in effect for 12 weeks which should last through the 1st qtr and may indicate we are near a top in many indexes for at least a decent sized correction.
Some brief market notes:
SP futures yesterday recorded a DAILY TD Sequential 13 sell signal. The confirmation is a bearish price flip - a close below the close four price bars earlier. That will get much easier to accomplish on Tuesday next week when the comparison close moves from 1265.50 to 1283.40.
The S&P 500 cash index will possibly record a TD Sequential 13 sell signal today.
Some TD Sequential 13 buy and sell scans: Buy: FAZ, LXK, NDN; Sell: AAPL, AMAT, BA, C, CVX, MOLX, NVDA, PFE, WFMI, WY
A quick note on PFE : the stock on a WEEKLY basis had the chance to qualify a breakout of TDST Up this week, but failed to do so when the open was below the prior week's close.
Best Regards,
MBryant
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