| bordeaux |
|
Member
|
| Registered User |
|
|
|
|
| Gender: |
|
| Wednesday, February 3, 2010 |
| Tuesday, February 9, 2010 2:44:20 PM |
14
[0.00% of all post / 0.00 posts per day] |
|
QUOTE (bustermu) The EMA and the SMA are both constructable, stable, realizable, linear time-invariant (CSR LTI) filters. (Whatever that means.) Please see:
http://forums.worden.com/Default.aspx?g=posts&t=5142
1) The EMA is a well-behaved filter uniquely characterized by the fact that it follows its input. This means that from one bar to the next, the output always moves in the direction of its new input and never overshoots. Its output sequence uniquely determines its input sequence.
2) The SMA is an ill-behaved filter whose recent input and recent output are independent of one another in the following sense:
Suppose the period of the SMA is P. Then, any sequence,
x_k, k = 0, 1, 2, ..., P-2,
and any sequence,
y_k, k = 0, 1, 2, ..., P-2,
can be the P-1 most recent values of the SMA input and output, respectively.
Its input sequence cannot be determined from its output sequence.
Any comments will be appreciated.
Thanks,
Jim Murphy
I am not sure what you imply by ill-behaved or well behaved. Each MA has its place in a method. A drawback of the exponential for example is that it is more liable to whisaws. On the other hand, you may need EMA as part of a method to initiate signal without confirmation.
Usually well behaved trading methods use a combination or SMA, EMA, and DMA to minimize lag.
In regards to your concept of P = SMA then P-2 is a DMA unless I am misunderstanding your logic.
Thanks
B.
|
Apsll it seems to me that you come across as you are some sort of master trader or something like that.
Kind of snob above the rest. May be is just my perception, and I am wrong (preferable), but it seems that scenario would be difficult to believe.
For what I read here your level of sophistication as a trader is minimal. First you initiate a day trade on a Friday, and then you keep over the weekend. That is breaking the first rule any daytrader abides by.
We all know that stops only work when they do, and NOT when they don't - Right??
Then you continue to hold in a day when it should had been sold, and to make it even more perplexic you put a stop right where you entered. So are you willing to leave your commisions on the table? I have never come across a trade as un-sophisticated and puzzling as this.
At any rate, agm32 was correct that the stock should had been sold today, and he is also correct that the stock has been on a tight trading range for over 6 months making a great candidate to daytrade or swing.
Since the big buy signal in March and until today my system has produced 3 buying signals, and 4 selling signals on the swings. All with confirmations on the proper set up. Meaning those were certain trades. As a daytrade this stock has worked wonders.
I purchase the stock on Friday (it showed up on the list of stocks breaking previous day, and multiple days volume average - Acumulated 10,000 shrs between about 2pm and the closing all of them under $24 (of course ranging from 23.5 to 24). At the same time I was purchasing FEB Puts contracts to cover my position for less than 0.95 per share (Strike 25 so to be completely covered).
Then I went off to enjoy my weekend like nothing happened. Hell I was cover until expiration (Mar 20). I had a great weekend.
Today I sold my position in its entirety at the opening - Just gave it to the fools - easy to see them lining up in totalview. Certainly all sold between 24.5 and 25.5. Then I proceeded to sell my Puts for a measly lost.
Stock commisions $6, Options commisions $37.5, Option loss of $250. Total cost = $293.5
Risked about $245000, and profited about $9000.
All of this with basically 0 risk, or well lets say my maximum risk was the cost of my options.
I could had hold the trade for about another 2 weeks if I needed so without a worry in my mind.
You pay for certainty. This is a business not a casino. That is how a trade is done.
Please learn how to trade professionaly before you treat people like you are better trader than they are.
And I hope you reconsider your trade as early as tomorrow, before you regret your motions.
Thanks
B.
|
Tobydad the exponential MA gives the most weight to the most current value. In a nut shell it maintains the value of the previous day's average rather than the data for the entire period being averaged, so it is very compact.
Using just one MA and price as a method may get you in some trouble to exit trades.
So you will need to use SMA's and DMA's to build an efficient method for your trading. Remember that MA's may give you good entry points, but lack on the exits. And also they do very poorly in trading consolidations (or trading ranges as you will). For ranges pick an oscillator - my preference is stochs (simple).
I have also discovered a long time ago that it is better to remove the price from the window and follow it on the level III window as well as your TOS. You will take the buy / sell signals from the window, and find a good entry point via TOS, and Totalview (there you can se them coming and going) to get your order in.
I have been trading for years, and my method of preference is using MA's for simplicity and quick adaptability to new conditions. Sophistication can be simple.
Good luck.
Thanks
B.
|
Just wanted to point out a few things of which I have been aware for a while now (this is my first post here)
The markets finally ended the nonsense rise - valuations never supported it and the volume is divergent to the action - and so it is time to fall back to where it should be.
Stepping out from the action a little bit - take to the weekly frame - and take a look at the 200MA. What does that tell you?
Strong support is coming at about 9700 (DOW) - the oucome of that should tell you as a last minute kind of thing the side of the market you should be in to increase your odds at profiting.
My take is that 8500 is not out of the question in time, and lower possible although we first have to wait to see if the 9700 will hold, and if not there are a couple of minor support levels between there and the 8900 level
The dollar will tell and TA will follow. Currently the makets trimmed about 10% from their high of about 10700, and that is clearly not enough.
Thanks
B
|
QUOTE (diceman)
"Nonsense. You can always find the other side of the coin on any intelectual debate."
=========================
I'm not even sure this coin has one-side. (maybe counterfeit currency is the best descripton)
Since this so called argument is pretty silly to begin with.
You seem to be lost in the distinction between making arguments and actually convincing someone
of your argument.
Arguments have to be adjusted for:
Hidden Agenda's
Ignorance
Blindness
Bias
Dogma
Reputation
Truth
Respect
Broken Moral Compass
Thats why some are careful and thoughtful about what they say.
Once you have trashed your reputatoin its difficult to command respect.
Making an argument doesn't win your argument.
If simply stating something won an argument.
Then I could just say "Your wrong" and were done.
You can make arguments all day long:
2+2=9
The Sun is cold
Water is dry.
Good luck trying to get someone to believe you.
Thanks
diceman
Believe? Belief is a sense usually not based on facts, but on preference, interest, and ignorance.
Thanks
|
QUOTE (agm32)
well I'm now convinced. read between the lines.
steppingstoneent = apsll
From what I have read in these Apsll threads in this forum, I must agree here that it is very possible that this is true. It seems this fellow Apsll used to create so many imaginary users that I wouldn't be surprise that it may be happening again.
It seems bigblock was big in econopolitics, and so may apsll wants to also imitate that in the soul of another character since as clearly stated in his writings he himself has no intellectual capacity to conduct that kind of debates.
|
QUOTE (Apsll) Howdy John. You are correct that it is not worth an argument among friends.
WSE suggested to me that professional traders are aware of this indicator and do use it. I have also heard that they respect certain moving averages as well. I have seen that the indicator works better when price is moving in a certain way so I guess that there is one indicator added to the mix. I have noticed that Money stream seems to be on the move when price and CCI20 are aligned so I guess that I could outline a system that if played right could prove to be profitable.
I designed a trading system once that some folks liked on the forum. I traced certain momentum patterns back to their bottoms right as price was breaking into a rally. What I saw was that TSV was crossing up over its 13 day moving average as price was crossing over the 50 day moving average... I forget the third thing but I called the system the "Trifecta" Mammon where are you now.....
A system is hard to stay faithfull to though because you have to trade on the right side of the screen and no system is 100 percent accurate so what if your draw-downs out weigh your winners? There is no getting around it. Trading is not easy.
I don't know of a single institutional trader, electronic system trading used by institutional traders, or MM that uses CCI in any way or form.
This is not a system of any kind, it is a public domain indicator that has been around for over 30 years. It was created by Donald Lambert in 1980.
If this was of any profitable use, do you really think that it wouldn't be put to use by real money?
Please stop misleading people by telling them lies and claims that are false.
This is not really more effective than taking buying and selling signals from moon cycles.
|
QUOTE (diceman)
Wow!
It gets even better. Now China is on board for Obama.
To bad the analysis stopped with Hitler/Mussolini/China.
Would love to hear what Pol Pot, Mao and Marx (after all he's the "real deal") think of Obama?
Quote's Mao Zedong:
"U.S. imperialism, and European and domestic reactionary forces, represent real dangers"
"It is also important to unite with the middle peasants, and educate them on the failings of capitalism."
Sound familiar?????
Its interesting when one wants to denounce America they use Communist, Socialist, Marxist
regimes. (with a few butchers, thugs and murders thrown in for good measure)
as their benchmark of thought.
(or maybe lack of thought?)
Just so were clear with the arguments made so far.
China, Hitler, Mussolini, would have been "onboard" with Obama.
Great arguments guys.
I can only wonder who our next Obama supporter will be?
Thanks
diceman
Nonsense. You can always find the other side of the coin on any intelectual debate.
The truth is that any system for the most part can work without abuses. But on the same token it is also true that no system will work if abused.
As long as our capitalist system continues to allow more and more abuses it will fail to the ground.
It is much harder to stop a capitalist system from crashing because the complexity of its goverment and the complexity of multidirectional influences, decisions, and legistration.
Remember the fall of the Roman Empire - what created the chaos? Similarities to the falling of our systems?
It took over 100 yrs for the empire to fall, and some may claime that it never fell since rome still exists today.
Obama is not the whole problem here. The banks bailout programs started with the Republican administration, and the globalization way before that.
The health system has been running the system down for years, yet there is enough lobbying from the pharmaceutical, insurance, and health industry to stop an universal coverage from happening. This country will never be able to compete with the world without it.
Anyways, and on and on and on. What benefits you doesn't benefit me - That is a rat race, and only the stronger (richest) will win.
|
QUOTE (bordeaux)
It was so much quieter and nicer around here without this fellow Apsll.
Who do you think you are Apsll? Or who do you think give you the right to treat people in your wicked ways?
From what I have read in this board you don't know anymore about trading than agm32, anyone else or even any beginner that comes into the board.
It seems to me that your state of mind is the one of a trader who has lost greatly to the markets and is soaked in madness. If that is the case you need to recover in ways that don't involve bullying other people.
Also the fact that you as well as others here assume that just because a person signs up for this board are new to the markets - IS NONSENSE. I am not new to the markets at all. In fact I have been trading for years.
My initial interest in this board was the fact that I saw concepts, which have nothing to do with real trading, yet those who claim such thought that they did. Nonsense again.
For example this "CCI20" - ask any people who are really trading and their respond will be - what is that?
It is like if you tell the farmer across the road that you grow green pepers without water. What do you think his reaction would be?
If you tell the same to your neighbor in Manhatan - well it may have a little more credibility. After all they are no farmers down here - what do they know.
So why don't you go back to your little hole, and stay there for good. This board is a lot more productive without you as far as I can tell.
I have peruse a bit around here, and you don't really want that fellow - Bigblock - to return. He really knew his stuff.
And for what I get in the readings - He was never beaten; He was banned multiple times - It seems to me that the moderators made it impossible for him to return in his natural way and name.
He certainly as clearly on the writtings didn't take any beating from you or anyone else.
I can't believe that the management of this board puts up with you. If it was up to me your measly $300 a yr wouldn't be enought to put up with someone like you - not even to host your avatar.
I hope they are listening and lock this thread as well as you for the sake of this board.
Just my opinion. Have a great weekend.
Sorry for the mess, I am still trying to figure out the posting on this board.
|
|
It was so much quieter and nicer around here without this fellow Apsll.
Who do you think you are Apsll? Or who do you think give you the right to treat people in your wicked ways?
From what I have read in this board you don't know anymore about trading than agm32, anyone else or even any beginner that comes into the board.
It seems to me that your state of mind is the one of a trader who has lost greatly to the markets and is soaked in madness. If that is the case you need to recover in ways that don't involve bullying other people.
Also the fact that you as well as others here assume that just because a person signs up for this board are new to the markets - IS NONSENSE. I am not new to the markets at all. In fact I have been trading for years.
My initial interest in this board was the fact that I saw concepts, which have nothing to do with real trading, yet those who claim such thought that they did. Nonsense again.
For example this "CCI20" - ask any people who are really trading and their respond will be - what is that?
It is like if you tell the farmer across the road that you grow green pepers without water. What do you think his reaction would be?
If you tell the same to your neighbor in Manhatan - well it may have a little more credibility. After all they are no farmers down here - what do they know.
So why don't you go back to your little hole, and stay there for good. This board is a lot more productive without you as far as I can tell.
I have peruse a bit around here, and you don't really want that fellow - Bigblock - to return. He really knew his stuff.
And for what I get in the readings - He was never beaten; He was banned multiple times - It seems to me that the moderators made it impossible for him to return in his natural way and name.
He certainly as clearly on the writtings didn't take any beating from you or anyone else.
I can't believe that the management of this board puts up with you. If it was up to me your measly $300 a yr wouldn't be enought to put up with someone like you - not even to host your avatar.
I hope they are listening and lock this thread as well as you for the sake of this board.
Just my opinion. Have a great weekend.
|
|