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Profile: startup3665
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User Name: startup3665
Groups: Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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Joined: Thursday, October 26, 2006
Last Visit: Tuesday, November 27, 2007 9:25:34 PM
Number of Posts: 56
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Last 10 Posts
Topic: Quick Question on the Average of Volume and BOP.
Posted: Tuesday, February 20, 2007 5:22:49 PM
Thanks a lot, Bruce.
Topic: Under the radar screen Intel (intc) Buying Now?
Posted: Wednesday, February 7, 2007 1:04:06 AM
Intel Shares Valued at $183 Million Traded in One Transaction

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?

pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=INTC:US&sid=aIjc8FIFWtJg

By Nick Baker

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Intel Corp., the world's largest maker of semiconductors, valued at $183 million were traded today in one transaction after the close of regular U.S. trading.

The trade amounted to 8.61 million shares, or 0.1 percent of the Santa Clara, California-based company's outstanding shares. The brokerage involved didn't identify itself, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Intel shares gained 16 cents to $21.28 in 4 p.m. Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nick Baker in New York at
nbaker7@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: February 5, 2007 16:47 EST
Topic: Quick Question on the Average of Volume and BOP.
Posted: Monday, January 29, 2007 3:43:03 PM
Try to find the Average of the past 50 days volume. Should it be AVGV50 or
AvgV50.1,

The same with BOP, (AvgBOP,50) or (AvgBOP,50.1)

What is the .1 mean? Thanks,
Topic: A new MACD
Posted: Tuesday, December 26, 2006 11:07:47 PM
Hi, like to use a new MACD calculation:

(10-period EMA minus 30-period EMA) divided by the 30-period EMA

to replace the traditional MACD.

For the NEW_MACD-Histogram, it will be the difference between the NEW MACD of above and the 9-day EMA of the the NEW MACD.

We tried to modify this one shown by Craig, not much results either. Please help, thanks,

MACD Histogram Crossing From Negative to Positive Today
(XAVGC20-XAVGC40)>(XAVG(XAVGC30,20)-XAVG(XAVGC40,30)) AND (XAVGC20.1-XAVGC40.1)<(XAVG(XAVGC30.1,20)-XAVG(XAVGC40.1,30))
Topic: MA50 and MA200
Posted: Friday, December 8, 2006 1:09:40 PM
We did a redraw of the MA50, it is MA50 = 18.68 in TC2007. We think the first draw was a MA draw of MA200 not of the price. It is an area to pay attention to. Thanks.
Topic: MA50 and MA200
Posted: Friday, December 8, 2006 1:04:25 PM
We are looking into the values for simple MA50 and MA200 for Oracle daily.

MA50: 14.75
MA200: 15.53

Took another comparion look on the stockcharts.com. They have a reading of

MA50: 18.67
MA200: 15.58

Any reason why MA50 is so different? Thanks,
Topic: CMGI coming back?
Posted: Friday, December 8, 2006 12:36:09 PM
Interesting to have heard Peter Worden talked on CMGI in his recent stock selection list (12.06). CMGI has @Venture origin and has switched five year ago to focus on the Supply Chain Management for companies like: Sandisk, HP, MoGo Mouse,...

As of Dec 4.
CMGI's "profit increased nearly fivefold in the fiscal first quarter, as falling operating expenses and a tax benefit offset a drop in revenue.

Quarterly earnings for the three months ended Oct. 31 rose to $10.3 million, or 2 cents per share, from $2.1 million, or breakeven on a per-share basis, during the same period last year."

Technically, price and volume had some gap up;
MS, TSV are above the high 75% average, lots of BOP buying back in March, April, July, October, Novemeber.
MACD showed MA centerline crossover and a positive trending as price volume action.

Insiders: CEO, CFO, directors have been vesting heavier on the stock options recently.

Topic: Risk Reward Ratio PCF
Posted: Tuesday, November 28, 2006 5:03:10 PM
If we cannot measure them, we cannot manage them.

Gents, most of the time in a real world, we found it is not statistics that is an issue, it is how best, how close/ precise we are able to measure things or end results.

'Beauty is only skin deep'. Used to work for a biotech firm that did dermatology in the beauty business to make people look younger. The clinical trials was a mess, little robust measurement of the end results in this beauty business ever exists. Again, it ain't statistics, it is measurement.

Despite all the measurement issues in the rr ratio, we saw simplicity and practical application of Mr. Murphy's approaches. It is doable for us to screen the odds/ candidates.

Our approaches of standard deviation is not robust enough, the regression one needs lots of further diligence.

Cheers,
Topic: Risk Reward Ratio PCF
Posted: Thursday, November 23, 2006 7:34:59 PM
Gentlemen:

Happy Thanksgiving for all, first and foremost.

Great postings. We just had a seafood meal, so
fulfilled (full and filled).

We were thinking more of a preventive/ preemptive/
screening approaches before we enter an investment.

Today's price: open/ close, high/ low, average/ median/ mode,.... can all be used for screening purposes.

Then assuming a 'normal' distribution, assuming it
because each stock/ option/ ETF,... has its own
characteristics distribution across time, price or
volume range,.... We have yet to conduct a study on this area.

Therefore, a two to three standard deviations (sd) + or - from today's price will cover at least 95.4% to 99.7% of the normal-assumed distribution asset's area.

We saw there are a few channel indexes used in TC such
as envelop channel, we don't know what is the calc
behind these channels. But we think it may be similar
to sd.

The channels upper/ lower limits can serve another
indexes in addition to the sd.

Then it wil be:

(Channle upper limit or 3sd above - Today price)/ (today price - lower limit or 3sd below)

We will compute this ratio for the past 5, 10, 15, 20,
30,.... days up to 3, 6, 9 months, up to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
years marks.

Or even better, if we compute this ratio for everyday for the past 10, 20, 30,... years, taking into consideration from KoKoDa and Jim's insights/ inputs.

Then we contruct a reward/ risk ratio line just like the price, MA, TSV, MS, ADX,... for the past 30 years for easy visualization/ interpretation of the data just like our professor: edward tufte taught/ wrote it.

Also, each point of purchase is a reward/ ratio ratio
made, they can be thought of as a candlestick just like a struck price itself.

Ever since we signed onto TC a month ago, we have
created/ edited many pcfs to make lots of statistics day to day, but how to save them and make these calc results into a graphic/ chart so we can see them in a longer term trending perspective? This is hitting two or three birds in one stone. Remains a challenge.

We are above-average statistical tinkers or thinkers,
but are below-3sd-average programmers. Hope everyone in this forum chips in.

In summary, the questions we have are:
1) How many different channel indexes are being used in
TC? how are they calculated?
2) Are there any simple ways to further construct this
reward/ risk ratios into a graphic candlestick
representation? over a longer-than-daily time periods?

The best index will be just like prices: candlesticks, bar charts works best.
3) How to compute a few pcfs first to do a few ratios
first?

Reward/ risk ratios are very critical in the preventive overall assessment of asset investments and are often ignored by most people. It is like the 'cost benefit analysis(CBA)' routinely required by most government or civil projects or research grants applications. It has everything to do with setting up an exit strategy, well-defined and strictly-disciplined before our entry into an ever fast-moving, turbulent investment stream.

Hope this may trigger Worden to set up an reward/ risk
ratio index just like the in-depth proprietary TSV, MS,
BOP,..Instead of just focusing on the nitty-gritty
specifics of zeroing down into price/ volume movement, a more comprehensive topographic overview of 'how much
money we have to risk before making a dollar reward back in the market?' Many many users in this community will be benefited greatly.

Cheers,
Topic: Risk Reward Ratio PCF
Posted: Wednesday, November 22, 2006 2:44:28 PM
Or can you point us to a risk/ reawrd pcf post? thanks a mile.