| SteveRaub |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Tuesday, January 25, 2005 |
| Sunday, December 27, 2009 6:23:41 PM |
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I am looking for an older Worden Report, the article by Sir Bob, I believe on the 4 MACD method.
He overlayed four MACD histograms, 7.14.5 in Blue, 7.18.5 in Red, 10.16.5 in Yellow and 5.10.5 in
Green. I have used this indicator for sometime, but I would like to see how I can get a copy
of his original discussion, from 2002, I think. Can anyone help? Is there an on line archive
of older Worden Bros Reports? Thanks
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Indeed, the Trend is your Friend, until it ends. In my analysis the trend is up, perhaps I look at a shorter
term than you. My "trend" shows price above 10day moving average, both above the 20 moving average
and all three above the 50 day moving average. My definition of a Bear Market is the 50 day moving
average of SP-500 below the 200 moving average. That is the next hurdle. So, for me, this intermediate
trend is up, and tradable. I would become a bigger bull on the retest of the 50 moving average, but my point to all of this, is the market can move lots higher without that retest. Cheers!
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For a historical perspective, since it is popular to compare today to the 1930's, I went back to look at
the market then. To do this, I put the timeframe as yearly, with the ticker DJ-30. Then scroll back to
July 1932 to Sept 1932, an advance of 93% without a significant correction. Then, March 1933 to
July 1933, an 110% advance without a correction to the 50day moving average. Also, look at 1975.
This crazy market can melt up, after significant declines. We have not reached the 200 day moving average yet. That can happen without a retracement to the 50 day moving average. It has happened before but rarely. As long as the "smart" folks stay on the sidelines, there is plenty of cash to come into the market to fuel the continued rise. However, I am not betting the farm, either way.
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Shorting may be real interesting ... I just looked at a quarterly chart for the past 20 years.
Am I seeing a massive double top, comparing Oct, 2007 with March 2000?
What do you think?
SAR
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