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Registered User
Joined: 3/6/2005
Posts: 8
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now its up on 2 solid days, charts looks like a classic momentum breather, with 2 prominent green candlesticks showing a reversal back up, what am I missing bsides $2 in the hole?
MACD headed sould TSV reveresing but well under mid point
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Iambro take responsability for your trades. The wordens cannot predict the future and their comments are not to be taken as tips, but as an educational examples.
If the trade went against you, enforce your stops and get out if that is what you need to do. The market doesn't care about who said what.
good luck bro.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
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Looks to me like it is a better short today than 2 days ago, with a stop just above the recent highs, or a percentage whichever one prefers.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/30/2005
Posts: 18
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QUOTE (lambro) MACD headed sould TSV reveresing but well under mid point
Hi. 
Sorry for the bad trade. Here’s how I look at situations such as this:
1.) They're indicators...NOT predictors. Price doesn’t have to do anything any indicator indicates.
2.) Use caution when trusting your money to a "black box" indicator or trading system. You don't know the math behind the TSV. Be cautious. That's not to say don’t use it, but remember when using black box ideology: you’re asleep and you’re allowing someone else to drive you home.
3.) Rely less on indicators and study price patterns more. Overbought & Oversold are overrated.
Cheers.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/6/2005
Posts: 8
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HI Guys thanks for the responses.
I do take responsibility for my trades, I guess my question is I agreed 100% that it was a short, what I am conerned about is that it shot up the next two days. Does anybody see a reason for this that the chart my have suggested? I am a wondering if I missed something.
Mouse, re TSV, I 'know what it is, but re the math, I am not calclating it my self I am using TC options for this. Price pattern on GMCR was an uptrened that exhibited more than an average pull back on major selling volume. Can you give me an example of a trading system that is not "black box" thanks
As far as other trades I have made where I am up,
KWK DUK STR, using MACD TSV & MS all trending up so here i was using the indactors as predictors, otherwise I would not have got in. In fact all three of these I hit in a sweet spot so I was very confident.
Any further clarifications and comments much apprecited, thanks again -G
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Registered User
Joined: 3/9/2005
Posts: 71
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Lets examine this one some and be really fair to Worden and ourselves. This issue has a percieved resistence around the $35.45 range. It hit that area a few times. Even if it is in a slight pullback or a very short term base routine, the percieved resistence high is the area that I would pick to enter a short. There is enough of these little chart patterns to study and plot an entry point that seems to be the best place to do so. I highly recommend look learn and study if this type of pattern repeats in charting history (and it does a lot) and if so, is the percieved high the best place to consider entering? Last March I wrote a routine to find some of these very type of patterns and studied the scenario so I could find an entry point that would yield a best case entry point. Since then I have moved on to other "events" that are more predictableto swing like splits & earnings reports and other things. I have a strong (studied & tried) opinion of why and when to enter any position and not to often is it based upon anyones advise. Worden throws us a bone and half the time I ignore them.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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Bro this stock exhibits an upward trend for over 3 yrs. Now I do not follow this stock, but my guess is that the climatic sell out is related to some kind of news. This event made for a well position short - assuming stop loss -, but in a strong uptrending stock as this one you must consider the support that could be found at 50,and 200 MA. Close stop at 50MA level, and if it breaks down, then I would bet it will land near the 200 - just by looking at the next strong support area (not the 200MA). You must consider that there is no volume indication of a bearish sell out (increasing volume after initial sell out). Sometimes it helps to get rid of the darn indicators and take a reality look at what is going on in the crowd.
For me this would had never been a clear short; Shorting the news could be a very risky proposition in a stock uptrending as this one is.
As I said before if the trade went against you enforce your stops and find a better candidate.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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I am no expert but if I might be sold bold as to mention a new observation that I have recently discovered for myself in chart reading that seems to fit your situation:
Look at the daily chart for GMCR and you will notice that the lows on the price bars for 6/27 and 6/28 are level with each other (use the horizontal drawing tool <--> to draw a line under these 2 matching chart lows). It would seem that if you can find low matches like these using the horizontal drawing tool on any stock then it is confirmation over 90% or more of the time that the stock will be climbing a $1 or 2 within the next couple of days.
The matches can be days apart and not necessarily back to back like this symbol is exhibiting.
Remember, I am no expert here so please proceed with caution if you use this new discovery of mine.
But, I think it is facinating!!!
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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As a followup example to the new discovery I just mentioned:
Look at the daily chart for FFIV.
Draw a horizontal line under the price bar for 6/28/2005.
You will see that its low has a previous matching low on 5/6/2005.
That is confirmation to me that the price is going to go up a few dollars in the next 1 or 2 days.
Now, if you were to look at the actual price lows for 6/28 and 5/6, you will discover that they are actually about .03 cents apart.
i.e. the low on 5/6 was $43.79 and the low on 6/28 was 43.82. This .03 cent difference in the chart matching lows seems to be typical.
I would appreciate any feedback from anyone on what they think of this discovery.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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Can anyone devise a PCF formula for my discovery?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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Memorable,
The pattern you decribe is considered a "tweezer bottom" from candlestick charting. It is similar to the Western double bottom, but on a much shorter time frame.
As for the Worden comment, I agree with the bearish sentiment, but if it were me, I'd probably wait for a rally back to one of the bollinger bands that I use.
I think the stock looks like a great short at this level.
Sir knowledgable skeptic
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