Registered User
Joined: 8/20/2006
Posts: 40
|
We all have all been watching the market and you can pick your methodology as well as your favorite indicies to follow. Naturally no one has a crystal ball, if I did I certainly wouldnt be typing this thread or be subscribing to Worden. In recent weeks theres been a calling for a head and shoulders breakdown, which obviously hasnt (yet) occurred. Going into September the media personalities were telling people to brace for September as it has historically been one of the worst months of the year. Then came last week with the market oversold it posted one of the best weeks in September in many years as the market was ripe for some solid swing trades.
So the questions remain; Are we set for a solid down leg from here? Are we going to see a series of bear flags like last week for the next 12 months? Or was last weeks bottom the start of a solid intermediate bull run?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
|
On a Daily SPY chart compare this top 4/26/10 with top on 10/11/07. Both resemble a H&S, although not perfect. the 07 top has a much larger left shoulder, while the one we're in now has a larger right shoulder. Just as in the recent H&S you could argue that the rightshoulder of the 07 H&S has an Inverted H&S. with the inverted head on 11/26/07 that created a nice little headfake for the bulls before the bears finished it off.
Currently the inverted H&S is more defined then the one in 07. I think there's a good possibility that we pull back slightly to about 108-109 before testing the August highs, which could push us to maybe around 117 - 118., before the bears finish the large H&S. and then look out below!
For now we're range bound between 104 and about 113. but patterns are patterns, I just step back to smaller time frames, hourly, 15min, and even 5min, and then that range all of a sudden is a large range.
Once the range has been broken start trading again with larger time frames.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
I'm cautiously optimistic about a bottom being in place for this correction.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (ben2k9) I'm cautiously optimistic about a bottom being in place for this correction.
The market seems to have a pretty good idea as to the outcome of elections a month or two ahead of time ...
And we are now inside that window ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
Think anyone learned anything from the elections 2 years ago?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
I guess that everyone has their own way of coming to their conclusions so I will share mine.
Take a look at the market action over the years and you will see plenty of "head & shoulder" patterns as well as "inverse head & shoulder" That did not pan out and some that did so just flip a coin on that one... (one clue can be found in the volume patterns right at the Top or Bottom of these "Heads")
I am inclined to agree with Ben on this. One clue can be found in the positive divergence seen in the "TICK" index. If history is any guid then we will see higher ground before we put in a new low....
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 8/20/2006
Posts: 40
|
Peter the great raised a very good issue, one that i will take a look at, I focus on the SPX in all time frames starting with a 5 minute chart and forward. I believe if the market was going to go down it would have last week. Aside from the chart patterns, the market has recently sold off several times and ended up in the 1000-1045 area and rebounded. Politics aside, in my opinion, the only relevent factor that elections bring to the table is the 3rd year of the presidential term when its time to hit the offer for re-election. In the end its all about supply and demand, as well as who has the meatballs to step into a declinning maket on the long side.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 8/20/2006
Posts: 40
|
APSLL; I see you are in Telechart. I have played with several comparisons including the tick index and couldnt get them to chart properly. Care to share your settings on the tick index?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
PS:
I see cases for both sides of this issue by the way. Chats with friend and reliable sources have argued both sides so in general it is my opinion that attempting to predict the track of the markets is futile but interesting.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Sure Skibumm2006,
I use a line chart (Arithmetic scale) and I use the color black for price so that it is not visable. I then add a 2 bar sma to price and make the color pink.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 8/20/2006
Posts: 40
|
APSII; Thanks for the info on the settings and the "Look" , I will check it out. A good case for vodoo charting is with the GLD. It recently broke its L/T trend line, took out the BB and then headed straight up. So I agree many times technical analysis is just a crap shoot. Basically when the selling stops the buying takes over-its that simple. No just go out there and figure out when the selling stops!
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
I always find it funny that when you see the comercials on TV to send in your un-used gold for cash then you can bet that Gold is soon to rise.....
A trending Market is much easier to read than a stangnant one.....
Good trading to you Skib...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 8/20/2006
Posts: 40
|
APSII---still working on the chart, may need some more assistance
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
which head and shoulders are you referring too?
seems one of these will succeed.
the election cyle suggests a rally. small caps, financials, and tech are showing relative weakness, suggesting a further correction.
|
|
 Gold Customer
Joined: 4/10/2006
Posts: 954
|
I love predicting markets...
Using the fib time series we are up till Sep 17-21 where we will crator to test spy101 from FM's chart above.
that will be $5 ;)
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
This market has more Head & Shoulders than a dandruff convention.
I'm actually expecting the market to go down.
Seems like the election call is too easy. (Helen Keller could see this one coming)
I expect this rally to last to next week and than September will fulfill its obligations.
Even though I expect some weakness I still have some longs now,
after all you can only trade what's actually happening.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
|
Some of the leaders are holding up well and that is one positive sign. I tend to refrain from picking sides bull or bear. All I care about is I just hope the market picks a direction soon and gets out of this sidewards trend. Up or down, doesn't matter to me.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
yep, sideways sucks.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (diceman)
I'm actually expecting the market to go down.
Seems like the election call is too easy. (Helen Keller could see this one coming)
Thanks
diceman
I agree ...
I believe what has been "priced in" to the markets is the Republicans taking control of the House ... and picking up 6-8 seats in the Senate ...
And I really doubt it ...
Sure ... we've heard a lot about all of this Tea Party stuff ... but it's not proving out in the elections ...
JD Hayworth wasn't just defeated in the Arizona Republican primary by McCain ... he was stomped into the ground ...
In the 8th House District in NC ... we saw a Tea Party candidate easily discredited and defeated by a "talking head" for the Republican party ... who moved into the district just a month before the filing deadline ... much like Hillary Clinton did in New York for their Senate seat ...
It all may sound very nice ... but it just isn't making much of a showing at the polls ...
And the market may just be ready to realize that the socialist have only begun ...
And that there will be no coming back from this ... for quite some time ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
and if the republicans do win?
what can they really do without the whitehouse? seems the damage is already done. and they won't be able to overturn it.
it may also mean less stimulus for the economy, which may be a drag on the market in the short term. (and i'm not saying thats a bad thing, longer term)
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
QUOTE (funnymony) and if the republicans do win?
what can they really do without the whitehouse?
When your in your car with the gas pedal stuck,
the first thing you gotta due is stop the vehicle.
You dont really worry if the police or a mechanic
are gonna be there once the vehcle is stopped.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
QUOTE (diceman) QUOTE (funnymony) and if the republicans do win?
what can they really do without the whitehouse?
When your in your car with the gas pedal stuck,
the first thing you gotta due is stop the vehicle.
You dont really worry if the police or a mechanic
are gonna be there once the vehcle is stopped.
Thanks
diceman
and if the cars going over a cliff? lol
no doubt the market would cheer a republican victory, and split government has worked in the past, but the problems are still there.
stopping the car would be a good first step, but, whether the republicans have a good mechanic, or can do the job, remains to be seen.
and if the republicans don't sweep, as expected, well...........
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 1,356
|
another thing I learned in trading :
The ability to change your mind in a heartbeat is priceless!!! that's why women make better traders then men. (just joking, no offense!)
We men have our ego working against us, we have to be right, even when we're wrong.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
|
P.T.G. Yep, the ego can get in the way when getting out when one should get out.
Reality and F.M. You guys know. It doesn't matter who's elected anymore. We hit the peak many years ago and now it's just a snowball rolling down the hill. A few good people here or there won't make a difference. Can't fight the system in DC. Too much money being put in political crooks pockets legally maybe illegally, but who cares. There will never be, never could be a revolution to make changes for the better. Which is better? The liberal do gooders, who give it all away. The conservatives, there aren't enough with moral values. We can't even change small city govt.s or state govt.s to try to become self sufficient, all have their hands out to the Fed. It's just that they can't print money themselves. The Feds fix has always been, just throw money at the problem, don't try to correct the problem, just feed it. I read somewhere that Washington DC is not made to be financially efficient only politically efficient. They may not even be that. Put in there whoever you like, it won't get any better, only maybe slow down the inevitable. KABOOM. BUY GOLD AND SMITH & WESSON
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 8/20/2006
Posts: 40
|
Wow! I'm Loving this forum! Where is Rush Limbaugh?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Skib, just stick around for more laughs. I am not sure who is more entertaining with their ignorance. Rush or jonny......
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
QUOTE (johnlc)
It doesn't matter who's elected anymore. We hit the peak many years ago and now it's just a snowball rolling down the hill. A few good people here or there won't make a difference. Can't fight the system in DC. Too much money being put in political crooks pockets legally maybe illegally, but who cares. There will never be, never could be a revolution to make changes for the better. Which is better? The liberal do gooders, who give it all away. The conservatives, there aren't enough with moral values. We can't even change small city govt.s or state govt.s to try to become self sufficient, all have their hands out to the Fed. It's just that they can't print money themselves. The Feds fix has always been, just throw money at the problem, don't try to correct the problem, just feed it. I read somewhere that Washington DC is not made to be financially efficient only politically efficient. They may not even be that. Put in there whoever you like, it won't get any better, only maybe slow down the inevitable. KABOOM. BUY GOLD AND SMITH & WESSON
Hello Lindsey Graham.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
|
QUOTE (johnlc)
P.T.G. Yep, the ego can get in the way when getting out when one should get out.
Reality and F.M. You guys know. It doesn't matter who's elected anymore. We hit the peak many years ago and now it's just a snowball rolling down the hill. A few good people here or there won't make a difference. Can't fight the system in DC. Too much money being put in political crooks pockets legally maybe illegally, but who cares. There will never be, never could be a revolution to make changes for the better. Which is better? The liberal do gooders, who give it all away. The conservatives, there aren't enough with moral values. We can't even change small city govt.s or state govt.s to try to become self sufficient, all have their hands out to the Fed. It's just that they can't print money themselves. The Feds fix has always been, just throw money at the problem, don't try to correct the problem, just feed it. I read somewhere that Washington DC is not made to be financially efficient only politically efficient. They may not even be that. Put in there whoever you like, it won't get any better, only maybe slow down the inevitable. KABOOM. BUY GOLD AND SMITH & WESSON
The preceding has been brought to you by, JohnnyLC's Trade Forex. Forex, the pioneer of market strategies. Because we all know, when you trade Forex, problems here at home...
Just don't matter.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
QUOTE (johnlc)
Reality and F.M. You guys know. KABOOM. BUY GOLD AND SMITH & WESSON
Do not forget the bomb shelters. I think that you can get the old 1950's models for a good bargain. Big surplus......
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
|
In March 09 the market blasted off because things stopped getting worse and stabilized. This is the same effect the Nov. election is going to have. Legislative uncertainty and an anti-business sentiment from the top down has hindered this recovery. Although the repubs having control of the house won't undo everything (or possibly anything), it will at least keep things from getting worse, and will stop the radical, antibusiness legislation.
Whether or not the market blasts off in Nov or before doesn't matter. The reality is, once the Democratic supermajority is demolished, the "fundamentals" of America will improve, and this is bullish.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
QUOTE (Apsll) QUOTE (johnlc)
Reality and F.M. You guys know. KABOOM. BUY GOLD AND SMITH & WESSON
Do not forget the bomb shelters. I think that you can get the old 1950's models for a good bargain. Big surplus......
Well ...
I don't know much about bomb shelters ...
But gold and guns has proven to be a fairly good investment ... at least for me ...
My Dad and I flew into the airport in Key West in the very early 1970s ... and there in the airport was a guy selling US Double Eagle $50 gold pieces for $75 ...
He bought me one ... that I still have today ... and I have regularly provided it more company ... Krugerands, Pandas, Maple Leafs, etc ...
I am lucky enough to have grown up in a place where guns weren't considered an evil thing ...
Sure ... my Dad was HUGE believer in gun control ...
But to him ... gun control was steady hand and a sharp eye ...
Guns that I bought in the mid-90s are worth more than 3 times more today than what I paid for them then ....
I've never really understood the anti-gun movement ...
How can we hold the gun responsible for the shooting death ... and not the car for the drunk driving death ...
And when someone is beaten to death with a baseball bat ... why is there no movement to outlaw "assault bats" ... or "assault golf clubs" ??
I guess there's just a certain segment of the US population ... who's reasoning (or lack therof) ... I just will never understand ...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
QUOTE (realitycheck)
Sure ... we've heard a lot about all of this Tea Party stuff ... but it's not proving out in the elections ...
JD Hayworth wasn't just defeated in the Arizona Republican primary by McCain ... he was stomped into the ground ...
In the 8th House District in NC ... we saw a Tea Party candidate easily discredited and defeated by a "talking head" for the Republican party ... who moved into the district just a month before the filing deadline ... much like Hillary Clinton did in New York for their Senate seat ...
It all may sound very nice ... but it just isn't making much of a showing at the polls ...
I think it is different.
The cult of Obama took decades to cultivate.
You cant expect one election to fix all ills.
Ted Kennedy drove a women off a bridge and still got elected.
Go Figure?
If you look at some of Obama's recent speeches, his pant cuffs are wet.
(a sure sign he doesnt walk on water anymore)
The chickens as they say, are coming home to roost.
It will happen at the State level and the Entitlement level.
When you give away money long enough, you run out of it.
(the printing press aint been built that can cover this up)
Hey, maybe we could put half the unemployed on ink and
the other half on paper?
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
QUOTE (realitycheck) QUOTE (Apsll) QUOTE (johnlc)
Reality and F.M. You guys know. KABOOM. BUY GOLD AND SMITH & WESSON
Do not forget the bomb shelters. I think that you can get the old 1950's models for a good bargain. Big surplus......
I've never really understood the anti-gun movement ...
How can we hold the gun responsible for the shooting death ... and not the car for the drunk driving death ...
And when someone is beaten to death with a baseball bat ... why is there no movement to outlaw "assault bats" ... or "assault golf clubs" ??
I guess there's just a certain segment of the US population ... who's reasoning (or lack therof) ... I just will never understand ...
And this is why there is such a problem in this country. "Lack of understanding"....
Of course a gun like any other inanimate object is not responsible for any crime; it is the perpetrator that is responsible for said crime and those that make easy access to and profit from the sale of guns that the laws are made to protect us from. This is not the wild west anymore, The civilized factions of this great country envision a world whereby only the military and law enforcement need carry such weapons of destruction and not young children that hide them in their pants pocket on the streets and in our schools.
As for GOLD; Hey I used to be into "Heavy Metal" myself.....
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Seinfeld said it best..."Criminals do not understand. That is why they have guns.. To many misunderstandings....
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2009
Posts: 235
|
Considering that criminals are the majority who carry guns, outlawing guns would only make the public that much more vulnerable. Of course the tin liberal dictators that run this country would love to outlaw the sale of guns to the public, this would not solve anything. I will continue to practice my right to bear arms. We may not be the wild west anymore, but in my opinion the laws in this country protect the criminals more than the civilians. Until that day comes, I'll take the law into my own hands when it comes to defending my family, property, and self.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Howdy Traderm:
I am all for protecting ones home and the right to bare arms. It is the easy access to "Handguns" that is really the issue in this country.
When you here a noise in your house late at night then yes you grab your phone first and dial 911 then you reach for the "Rifle" you have locked up in your bedroom closet and then proceed to the source of the disterbance. That is civilized and prudent. It is when the "Redneck Joe" is ready to shoot first and ask questions second that we are failing society and just compounding trouble. Think about it this way if there is gun-play then we know that there will be blood-shed. Either you or him or both are going to get hurt.
Most gun laws are to decrease the sale of "hand guns" as they are easy to conceal and dificult to defend against in the split second timing that is involved. I believe that like drug traffic, you need to find the source of who is selling the guns and maybe even limit the manufacture of such things. We do not want North korea possesing lethal weapons and we certainly do not want every punk in the streets armed either.
I am not foolish enough to think that any laws will work of course; just like drugs, there is no stopping them from getting in the wrong hands no matter how many laws we pass. To me it is more about the idea or the theory of dissarming the degenerates......
An interesting topic though....
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
"go reach for your rifle you have locked in your bedroom." lol.
oh wait, first i'd have to go in the other room, and get the key to unlock my rifle. then load it too, right?
i'm sure any burglar that might be on meth and needs more money for drugs, would be good enough to give me a sporting chance, to at least unlock my rifle. even if they're already in my bedroom before i hear them.
some people really live in la-la land.
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 4/20/2009
Posts: 51
|
QUOTE (Apsll)
It is when the "Redneck Joe" is ready to shoot first and ask questions second that we are failing society and just compounding trouble.
I'm no redneck, but if a stranger shows up in my home late at night, I'm damn sure not going to be asking many questions.
And that 911 call?- the cops won't show up until after the fact.
In Colorado we have what's known as a "make my day" law.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
oh, i forget, your supposed to call 911, before you go unlock your rifle.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Ignorance sure is funny stuff....
If these "meth freaks" show up in your bedroom than you are as good as gone anyway. Do not be so naive for gods sake. You think that you are going to jump out of bed shooting? Now I see why you are called "funny".
Just the other night in Dorchester, Ma two guys tried to break into a drug dealers apartment to rob him and he was well armed. He killed one of the intruders and wounded the second but took four slugs himself.. Most sane folks around these parts rely on alarm systems rather than trying to pretend that they are "Wild Bill".... Unlocking your guns if you are prepared takes two seconds I think that it is you funny that is living in La, La land. My best defense is to live in a safe neighborhood lock my doors at night turn on the alarm and have a plan in place. That plan does not include any shoot-outs at the "OK Coral"....
Man am I glad your kind does not live in the Noth East...
|
|
|
Guest-1 |