Registered User
Joined: 8/31/2009
Posts: 60
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GLD - Gold having regained its lustre looks forward to shine more....
Nice Inverse H&S multi year formation. After the breakout, recent Pennant formation provides a very good buying opportunity.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/19/2008
Posts: 193
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IAG looks very nice here too.
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Registered User
Joined: 8/31/2009
Posts: 60
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Analysts have been predicting Gold Price may cross $2000. For those who are interested in investing long term in Gold, we have 2x leveraged DGP...
What are the PROs and CONs of going after the leveraged Gold ETF's / ETN's.
- DZZ : Powershares DB Gold Double Short ETN
- DGP : Powershares DB Gold Double Long ETN
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Registered User
Joined: 9/9/2008
Posts: 8
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QUOTE (rysa) What are the PROs and CONs of going after the leveraged Gold ETF's / ETN's.
Well.... you are going to get approximately twice the move with leveraged ETF's so if you get the direction right you are in for a bigger bang for your buck. The opposite is true if you bet wrong.
On the dark side of the double bull ETF..... you are still holding 'paper gold' as opposed to the real thing.... which is really only someone else's promise to deliver. Also, if you are holding this long term you will definitely get a noticeable erosion in these funds as contracts get rolled forward.
I really like the gold market, but oddly enough many of the prominent gold bulls that were excited about gold suddenly turned bearish after it hit 1,050....... strange. Maybe world governments have stopped printing money or something.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Don't know about these funds but some leveraged ETF's don't track
well over the longer-term.
Its been brought up with stock type funds that they track well during the
trading day but lose some value as each day passes.
It all depends on the methods used to generate the excess return.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 97
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Are DZZ or DGP going to be affected by options expiration by the rolling of forward futures contracts?
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Registered User
Joined: 8/31/2009
Posts: 60
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Gold Confiscation : In 1933, in order to stabilize the monetary system, President Franklin D. Roosevelt, under Executive Order No. 6102, confiscated all privately owned gold in the United States.
Since the early ages, Gold has been the number 1 choice for Investors around the world.
1. We could buy GOLD BARS and keep it at Home (under the mattress  or in the basement) - CONS : Theft, Storage, Immovability and risk of confiscation
2. Invest in Virtual Gold abroad in companies like "BullionVault.com" - Though these Companies promise that every ounce of gold of every customer is physically stored in a vault..., Finally It is their word against yours.
3. Invest in GOLD based ETF's and other products.
So Investing in Gold based ETF's addresses Some of the issues...
a. No need to physically own gold
b. Provides a higher level of liquidity compared to owning the physical equivalent
Question:
With all the excessive Printing going on, Lets say, Privately owned gold is confiscated and a month later Currency is davalued by 90% against Gold...
How will this action affect Gold based ETFs?
Theoritically speaking, Gold based ETF's should appreciate in the same ratio. This will be a great way to hedge against Dollar Devaluation. There has been lots of talk of the impending Devaluation...
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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I would just move to Iceland where its safe.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (diceman) I would just move to Iceland where its safe.
Thanks
diceman
For you ... or your money ?
rysa ...
There are numerous ways to hedge against USD devaluation ... other than gold ...
Although I have nothing against gold ... particularly coins ...
Hedges include ...
Currency of resource rich nations ....
Short USD indexes ... or better yet ... short USD long Aussie dollar ...
Comodities in genral ... including foods ...
Land ... preferably outside the US ...
Inflation protected bonds would provide a hedge if you didn't have to depend on the US govt to determine the inflation rate ...
Personally ... I think that Oil is a better hedge for the following reasons ...
1. The supply/demand dynamic looking forward would tend to support higher oil prices even without inflation ...
2. If the USD continues it's devaluation ... oil should apprecaite proportionately ...
3. Nobody has to worry about the IMF dumping a few trillion barrels of oil on the market and driving the price through the floor ...
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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We could just elect folks that dont spend trillions of dollars.
Naaahhhhh!
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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QUOTE (diceman) We could just elect folks that dont spend trillions of dollars.
Naaahhhhh!
Thanks
diceman
that, sir, is crazy talk.
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Registered User
Joined: 8/31/2009
Posts: 60
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QUOTE (realitycheck)
...
Hedges include ...
Currency of resource rich nations ....
Short USD indexes ... or better yet ... short USD long Aussie dollar ...
...
I am inclined towards investing a percentage of net assets in Gold / Currency ETF's.
Is there any negative side to ETF's instead of Investing in the real thing ?
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (rysa) QUOTE (realitycheck)
...
Hedges include ...
Currency of resource rich nations ....
Short USD indexes ... or better yet ... short USD long Aussie dollar ...
...
I am inclined towards investing a percentage of net assets in Gold / Currency ETF's.
Is there any negative side to ETF's instead of Investing in the real thing ?
The longer you hold an ETF ... the more that it tends to diverge from the underlying commodity/securities due to rebalancing ...
I prefer coins because they come in several demoninations ... 1 tr lb ... 1 tr oz ... 0.5 tr oz ... 0.1 tr oz ... making "off the radar" trade quite easy ...
I have made 6 figure purchases ths way ... and the Bill of Sale simply reads ... "$1 + OVC" ... (Other Valuable Consideration) ...
If you really feel that the day of confiscation of gold may come again ... then ETFs offer you zero protection ...
Personally ... I just like keeping folks ... especially the govt ... out of my business ...
And I haven't found anyone yet ... who would not take gold in exchange for goods ...
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Registered User
Joined: 8/31/2009
Posts: 60
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Nowadays, If one needs to transfer / wire/ ... Money in excess of $10K has to provide all kinds of personel info to Bank. So, Flying under the radar is a difficult task.
There is no substitute to holding real gold in hand. Investing in small quantities is the wasy to go. I agree.
realitycheck - "If you really feel that the day of confiscation of gold may come again ... then ETFs offer you zero protection ..."
Currently, price of gold is around $1K. Lets say - a tracking GOLD ETF is also at $1K.
If Dollar were to be devalued against GOLD - say to $10K, then Won't the ETF also shoot up to $10K?
Is it possible, If Dollar devaluation were to happen, ETF will stop functioning?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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But gold in a different country.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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Buy (Sorry, can't edit).
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 266
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what would concern me about gold is the dollar look ready to rally.
stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=W&yr=4&mn=10&dy=0&i=p88921049732&a=182130713&r=667
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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driger ... Agreed ... but I have the utmost faith in our current administration to run the dollar even farther in the dirt ...
rysa ... you're talking about 2 different things ...
yes ... ETFs can offer you protection against devaluation ... but not confiscation ...
In so far as your reference to the 10K limit ...
What you're referring to is FINCEN ... Financial Crimes Enforcement ...
Banks call it a "CTR" ... for Cash Transaction Report ... which they must file for CASH transactions over 10K ... or suspicious transactions ... I believe that it is a FINCEN Form 104 ...
There is NO reporting on domestic wires ... except of course for the trail of bread crumbs that the wire itself leaves ...
There was some talk a while back about having to report international wires over 10K ... but I don't think that ever happened ...
And yes ... it's a little harder than it used to be to go off the grid ... but still do-able ...
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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QUOTE (realitycheck) driger ... Agreed ... but I have the utmost faith in our current administration to run the dollar even farther in the dirt ...
rysa ... you're talking about 2 different things ...
yes ... ETFs can offer you protection against devaluation ... but not confiscation ...
In so far as your reference to the 10K limit ...
What you're referring to is FINCEN ... Financial Crimes Enforcement ...
Banks call it a "CTR" ... for Cash Transaction Report ... which they must file for CASH transactions over 10K ... or suspicious transactions ... I believe that it is a FINCEN Form 104 ...
There is NO reporting on domestic wires ... except of course for the trail of bread crumbs that the wire itself leaves ...
There was some talk a while back about having to report international wires over 10K ... but I don't think that ever happened ...
And yes ... it's a little harder than it used to be to go off the grid ... but still do-able ...
I believe they have been submitting SAR's (Suspicious Activities Reports) for domistic wire transfers over 10k. I believe that was how Eliot Spitzer got caught. He did a domestic wire transfer over 10k but tried to stop it but it was too late
As for the International SAR's, I have had many submitted on my behalf so yes they are doing them.
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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there is a 0% chance that the US govt will even talk about confiscating gold. not going to happen.
Don't make your investment decision on this aspect.
If you want to own physical gold, buy physical gold. If you're buying gold to increase the size of your investment portfolio or trading account, buy GLD or futures.
end of story.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 266
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QUOTE (realitycheck) driger ... Agreed ... but I have the utmost faith in our current administration to run the dollar even farther in the dirt ...
yes, i'm basically looking at the short term view, longer term hard to argue given the history of our government. lets see, $1 in 1922 is now worth about 6 cents.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"Personally ... I just like keeping folks ... especially the govt ... out of my business ..."
----------------------------------------------------------
And what makes you think their not reading this?
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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QUOTE (diceman) "Personally ... I just like keeping folks ... especially the govt ... out of my business ..."
----------------------------------------------------------
And what makes you think their not reading this?
Thanks
diceman
Of course they are reading this.
BTW, keep December 15, 2009 on your calenders.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 266
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QUOTE (diceman) "Personally ... I just like keeping folks ... especially the govt ... out of my business ..."
----------------------------------------------------------
And what makes you think their not reading this?
Thanks
diceman
i wish ben bernanke was.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (diceman) "Personally ... I just like keeping folks ... especially the govt ... out of my business ..."
----------------------------------------------------------
And what makes you think their not reading this?
Thanks
diceman
And what if they are ?
What of value do they now know ?
It's not illegal to purchase something with gold ...
I'm sure that they know how FINCEN reporting works ...
The govt controls the masses through fear ... generally ... the fear of losing what you covet ...
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (hiromj)
BTW, keep December 15, 2009 on your calenders.
I didn't get the memo ...
Wanna fill me in ?
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"And what if they are ?
What of value do they now know ?
It's not illegal to purchase something with gold ..."
-------------------------------------------------------------------
This assumes legality is the issue.
Like Santa, they want to know who's been naughty and who's been nice.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (diceman)
Like Santa, they want to know who's been naughty and who's been nice.
Thanks
diceman
Oh well ...
More lumps of coal for me ...
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"Oh well ...
More lumps of coal for me ..."
--------------------------------------------
If you want to pay the higher carbon taxes.
(wow they even ruined Santa)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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QUOTE (realitycheck) QUOTE (hiromj)
BTW, keep December 15, 2009 on your calenders.
I didn't get the memo ...
Wanna fill me in ?
Copenhagen Treaty.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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QUOTE (hiromj) QUOTE (realitycheck) QUOTE (hiromj)
BTW, keep December 15, 2009 on your calenders.
I didn't get the memo ...
Wanna fill me in ?
Copenhagen Treaty.
With great thanks to our founding fathers ...
Any treaty that our fascist POTUS signs ... is worth little more than soiled toilet paper until ratified by a supermajority of the Senate ... 67 votes ...
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