Registered User
Joined: 3/31/2005
Posts: 15
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Welcome to Cashmaker's hot stocks and trading.
Thanks for comment and suggestion. Since I am new here, I do not realize I have to keep in one thread. Today I received notice from Webmaster relate to my multi-thread posting. In the future, I will keep in one thread. Any comment and critique and suggestion are welcome.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/31/2005
Posts: 15
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Comment on GMTN, buy signal.
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Attention GMTN tomorrow. GMTN today didn't go down under 20MA line, on the contrary, it met strong support on the 20MA line which is approximate $13 level. From I-watch, these day large institution activities found. From public info, I can not find any reason why Institution increase their holding, but there must be someting brewing. Don't forget GMTN will open a lot of new store during April and May, check their website.
((Removed by Moderator)
So whenever the news about new store established out in either newspaper or magazine, it will attract more investor. This is a low float and strong FA company, any increase volume will push it much higher. My shorterm target is $15 in the next several weeks. These days showing no volume because people are worry about the 20MA support point, now it already establish, will see uptrend from now on.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/31/2005
Posts: 15
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In AIRT $16.5 for both FA and TA.
FA: this is a porfitable company with P/E ration 19, Price/Sales 0.66. Growth margin 19.20%. Profit Margin % 3.46 ROE 19.91,Return on Assets 11.17, Return on Investment 16.26. Low float only 1.5M, 20% hold by institution means 1.2M tradeable , low debt. Low short interest
TA: touch 50M, pull back from 52 weeks high $35. RSI shows oversold and W%R showing also oversold. Reuters gives 0 risk alert recently.
I predict the price will go back to $20 in the next couple weeks with increasing MACD and volume recently.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/31/2005
Posts: 15
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load more NGPS 21.7 for tomorrow jump
the market will be green this week.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
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It looks as though NGPS bumped up against resistance and falling hard. I believe that a test of the support level ~$16.50 is in order.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2005
Posts: 5
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cashmakers and bknight,
I agree with bknight, looks like NGPS is pulling backa bit more.
Can you do me a favor and take a quick look at IED? I like the run up, but the financials and lack of volume scare me a bit. What do you think? Funny how it is pulling back (profit takers) as soon as coverage was initiated (yesterday). TIA
MM
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Registered User
Joined: 3/24/2005
Posts: 38
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Some thought about NGPS
FA: don't need me to explain it again: one word--great!
TA: These two weeks uptrend from the end of Mar to today, its graphic established a Cup curve. According to the wave theory, this is a pop out signal. Also today's low volume give me some release, not showing block sell off.
The only one concern is when CMC finishing their 895K shares? Many peopel from thelion memtion that CMC already dumped their 895K on 4/1 and 4/4. On Yahoo, some people said EDGAR reported a FORM 144 to SEC for their 895K sold. Since I do not have EDGAR access, I can not confirm this. I know you guys don't like "rumor", this just for reference. Need to consider its probabbility, when you know the truth, it is too late.
Many investors already paid attention to this good stock, but worry about the CMC selling again. If people know CMC done, will rush in and push to pirce to $30. My comment is that: it is very likely that CMC done their sell, observed from 4/1 and 4/4 total volume close to 5M. I remember clearly these two day's trading somebody sold a lot of shares becasue of everytime the price went up to >22, it met strong sell presure. Hope CMC finished its sell off (although I mentioned that CMC might keep this 895K for partnership. Just my guess).
The 50M support point is close to today's close price, on 20.5 today we can easily see large buy order to support it. The downside for this stock is small and the upside is huge.
Hope it will do great tomorrow. I still keep my target: short term $25 and midterm $30
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Registered User
Joined: 3/24/2005
Posts: 38
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Yesterday's post:
Complete NGPS analysis, FA, TA, News... Strong Buy
NGPS designs, markets and sells high-precision global positioning systems (GPS), a leading GPS devices and technology company in the world, has contracts with US, Canada, EURO, China, Indian, and more.
FA analysis:
Very solid company with PE ratio 16 and high growth margin and growth revenue. According to Quicken Stock evaluator, NGPS’s Growth trends, Financial Health, Management Performance, Market Multiples and Intrinsic value are all the highest ranking. Earnings Growth 249.50%, Revenue Growth 40.90%, ROE 39.01%. Very low debt with high Asset/Liability ratio which is 3.445. Low float, only 3.5 M float and 20% are holding by Institution.
TA analysis:
the bottom already established at $16 and have strong support at 50-Day Moving Average line. From last week, volume increased to almost 2M per day compared to its total floating 3.5M. From RSI and W%R ration implies the oversold in the last several months. From Lycos I-watch 1-week graphic (removed by Moderator)
Showing strong buy support. Moreover, Reuters April 1st updated the Analyst Recommendations and Revisions for NGPS to 2 which is outperform as well as Reuter gives low risk alert.
(removed by Moderator)
Reason why people pay attention to it:
1. NGPS was listed in Wall Street News Alert's U.S. Hot Stock Highlights, March 11, 2005
2. Also “Bellwether Report Is Keeping a Close Watch on NGPS, BKST, UFPT and ANTP” on Market Wire, 28 March.
3. NovAtel Inc. Awarded Contract for SBAS Equipment for Indian GAGAN Program on March 8th, 2005
4. NGPS undergoing NAVY big contract: (removed by Moderator)
5.Mar 10 reported very strong earning as well as good guidance in 2005: (removed by Moderator)
Reason why it fall from $53 to $17? This is due to one major holder CMC electronic sold their shares. However, CMC already finished their sell off. Why I imply the CMC almost finished their sell off:
From NGPS SEC filing
(removed by Moderator)
CMC Eletronic INC:
Holding 3/18/2005 875,000
Sold 3/18/2005 408,939
Sold 1/11/2005 3,170,161
Sold 1/07/2005 1,462,161
CMC purchased 12/30/2004 accumulative holding: 4,694,500 shares, sold 4,622,322
These simple number shows CMC has only 875K in hand and they are not planning to sell at current price level (if they want to sell, they must sell on Mar 18 together with those 400K. Keep these 875K shares will let CMC still be one of NGPS holder and partner). Actually CMC is also a GPS device producer partnered with NGPS for a long time, in CMC’s press release in 1998 ((removed by Moderator) ), they mentioned that the Novatel is the leader in this area and their products are sophisticated and compatable. Since CMC accumulate almost 5M NGPS shares at the average price around $17 per shares, they sold 2M shares at $53 and 3M shares at $42 and 400K at $24. This profit taken action brought CMC total more than 300 Million proceed compared to CMC’s enterprise value only 400 Million which means CMC increase its value with 6 month by 100%. What a big deal to CMC.
NGPS price dropped at the beginning of this year is purely due to CMC sell off, nothing to do with the company’s business, so this stock is definitely oversold. Today Apr 5, it went down a little bit due to the profit taken since it has up for 5 straight days. Safe entry level here at $21 with low downside risk, will see at least $25 in the next couple weeks together with 120K shares short covered. NGPS has same trend and pattern as ANTP, gradually goes back to its underlying value after heavily sold.
Short term target $25 and midterm target $30.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/2/2005
Posts: 1
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CMC has not sold there last 875k shares (at least they haven't reported it to the SEC yet).
CASHMAKER:
Why do you say that the selling of CMC's stock brings NGPS $300 million in proceeds? That money wouldn't go to the company unless it was an option exercise or warrant exercise (which you didn't make it sound like).
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Registered User
Joined: 3/31/2005
Posts: 15
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NGPS been heavily shorted.
From the volume since last Tuesday (the day that started down side), there has been 6M shared trade, over 50% shares be shorted. I am sure this is not a company that the shorter can bring the price down (CMC did not short). Solid business, with many potential contracts going, has worldwide business, has high growth rate and high ROE. Its priced tanked from $22.95 last week is due to the shorted and CMC sell off fear. But I can tell you, CMC will not sell the 800K shares (at least recently). Take a look at CMC's press and Novatel's press, these two companies are partner in many projects and products. CMC believe NGPS is a leading company in GPS products in the future (from CMC's previous press). If I were CMC, won't sell the current holding shares, two reasons: 1. not much marginal profit compared the 400M already profit. 2. To keep the business relationship with NGPS, be a major holding investor is a good choice.
Do not think thoese shorter can bash a good company down to too much undervalue. Why they don't do this to Walmart or IBM? Becasue the floating is too huge. The only reason shorter can do this to NGPS becasue its low 3.5M shares. But this short can not hold long, any contract news or upgraded news come out or whatever, the shorter will cover and the price will fly to the roof. I believe those who short this stock are watching this stock second by second, worry about any triger that bumps it up.
Once again, I am not pumping this stock, if I want to pump, why not pick a homeland security samll stock to pump. I just share my analysis about the company's background and future. YMYD
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Registered User
Joined: 3/31/2005
Posts: 15
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QUOTE (mkeifer) CMC has not sold there last 875k shares (at least they haven't reported it to the SEC yet).
CASHMAKER:
Why do you say that the selling of CMC's stock brings NGPS $300 million in proceeds? That money wouldn't go to the company unless it was an option exercise or warrant exercise (which you didn't make it sound like).
Why do you say the proceed did not go to CMC compay? CMC sold the shares open market. If the money not go into CMC's pocket, why did it go?
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
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QUOTE (cashmakers) NGPS been heavily shorted.
From the volume since last Tuesday (the day that started down side), there has been 6M shared trade, over 50% shares be shorted. ......
This is your opinion since you have no facts to back up this claim.
I think that NGPS will trade higher after it tests recent lows. A lot of BOP in the last month, point to higher prices.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 457
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cashmaker,
Where are you getting your short interest numbers? Data on Yahoo as of 3/8 shows 4% of the float for NGPS is short. There has never been a month where NGPS has had 50% of the float short.
FWIW, I see negative divergences on the monthly and weekly charts, but the daily looks good. I would anticipate a rally to who knows--may even test the highs.
More likely somewhere in the 30-35 range.
The float for this stock is only 3.70 M if you use Yahoo data.
As a long term pick, I don't know. Only 9% of shares are held by institutions, with 54% is held privately. One positive is that institutional support has improved
dramatically--up 200%.
With such significant insider control over the company, that makes this stock risky from the point of view of accurate and adequate disclosure of financial information.
Just looking at Yahoo earnings estimates, there has been a trend downward in earnings, that recently rebounded. I think it is inaccurate, to say the least, that this stock declined due to CMC selling. It declined because earnings estimates were reduced, IMHO.
Another curiousity--in January, the company released unaudited financial results, with the typical cheery outlook, but a few interesting things:
1. Despite the fact 95% of revenues were earned in U.S. dollars, the financials were reported in Canadian currency.
2. The company anticipated less growth than 2004 because certain key contracts were completed at year end, as well as due to exchange rates between the U.S. vs. Canadian dollar. It seems that a weaker dollar hurts this company.
I'd advise anyone considering this stock for more than a trade look at the revenue recognition policy, as it was recently changed.
Interestingly, management stated it will no longer give quarterly revenue and earnings guidance back in the March report.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/24/2005
Posts: 38
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QUOTE (rmr1976) cashmaker,
Where are you getting your short interest numbers? Data on Yahoo as of 3/8 shows 4% of the float for NGPS is short. There has never been a month where NGPS has had 50% of the float short.
FWIW, I see negative divergences on the monthly and weekly charts, but the daily looks good. I would anticipate a rally to who knows--may even test the highs.
More likely somewhere in the 30-35 range.
The float for this stock is only 3.70 M if you use Yahoo data.
As a long term pick, I don't know. Only 9% of shares are held by institutions, with 54% is held privately. One positive is that institutional support has improved
dramatically--up 200%.
With such significant insider control over the company, that makes this stock risky from the point of view of accurate and adequate disclosure of financial information.
Just looking at Yahoo earnings estimates, there has been a trend downward in earnings, that recently rebounded. I think it is inaccurate, to say the least, that this stock declined due to CMC selling. It declined because earnings estimates were reduced, IMHO.
Another curiousity--in January, the company released unaudited financial results, with the typical cheery outlook, but a few interesting things:
1. Despite the fact 95% of revenues were earned in U.S. dollars, the financials were reported in Canadian currency.
2. The company anticipated less growth than 2004 because certain key contracts were completed at year end, as well as due to exchange rates between the U.S. vs. Canadian dollar. It seems that a weaker dollar hurts this company.
I'd advise anyone considering this stock for more than a trade look at the revenue recognition policy, as it was recently changed.
Interestingly, management stated it will no longer give quarterly revenue and earnings guidance back in the March report.
Thanks for the comments. Here is why I think it will rebounce from current price level by using'Raff Regression Channel Tool" (removed by moderator)
I do not have comment on the financial POW that you mention above, but I don't think the price down from $53 to $16 is because of the incereased P/E.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/24/2005
Posts: 38
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My new researched aggresive portfolio: ODSY CSH CGPI GLT KOMG AEY AGII GPX IFC STFC.
I use my model and filter to get these result, but remember I am a FA guy, not look at the TA too much. But now is not a good time to load since market trend is not clear. Actually it is good to play option these days or swing due to the up and down game. Will give more detail analysis about the stocks that I pick in the portfolio later.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/24/2005
Posts: 38
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as long as NGPS hold at above 20 which is it 50MA, its chart will be perfect uptrend channel, tomorrow will be the day. From 'Raff Regression Channel' its next target will be 23.
(removed by moderator)
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
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Well it didn't hold above $20, and is testing the 200 dma. If that doesn't hold, then a re-test of the lows in the mid $16. We'll see what develops in the next few days.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
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How long have you guys been investing or trading?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/24/2005
Posts: 38
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In TZOO and INCX today, nice AH jump, shorter will cover. Tomorrow market bullish. Also low float stocks are profitable: SNHY, BOOM, ANTP, NGPS, AIRT, INCX.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/4/2005
Posts: 31
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cashmaker, these stocks have all performed quite nicely since you posted them. Would you mind sharing a bit more about your selection criteria, model and filters to come up with such nice stocks?
QUOTE (cashmaker) My new researched aggresive portfolio: ODSY CSH CGPI GLT KOMG AEY AGII GPX IFC STFC.
I use my model and filter to get these result, but remember I am a FA guy, not look at the TA too much. But now is not a good time to load since market trend is not clear. Actually it is good to play option these days or swing due to the up and down game. Will give more detail analysis about the stocks that I pick in the portfolio later.
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Registered User
Joined: 5/17/2005
Posts: 221
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Snake ..looks like cashmaker is a value investor. Basicaly he / she buys stocks that are beaten up for whatever reason and then holds them for the longer term....here are some of my picks for stocks that I consider value stocks right now.
HYD (trades on the Toronto Stock exchange) , DITC(great fundamentals but beaten up) , VOXX and NAPS (Napster). NAPS is currently trading at at its 52 week low , is very cash rich, has low P/E ratio and is developing some exciting products. The last time it was at this level it rallied from 3.5 to 10.
Snake in terms of trading alot of cashmakers stocks seem to be very low volume plays...not good for trading as entry and exit points that you want may be hard to get. I could even be a market maker in some of these stocks and mae the price move big time.
Some of my longer term small cap under the radar stocks that I like on the Toronto stock exchange include AUA(adanac moly) , storm cat energy , UUL (uranium play). These are the kind of companies that you put in a few thousand for the longer term and could reap huge rewards. Adanac Moly is currently developing a site for mining that will reap over 5 billion dollars in product ...and it is trading at only can&0.6. I have heard rumours that they are going to go into production next year at which time this stock could soar.
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