Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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ABMD
APPY
ARNA
CDR
CNO
DRYS
ENER
FR
FT
GMXR
IBOC
LNC
LYV
MIC
NCS
OCNF
OWW
PSYS
RDNT
TWC
WNC
I'll be entering buy orders (hidden/conditional) just above the closing high of day. I'll adjust the entry order downward to following successively lower hod's.
If the relief rally fails, abandon ship.
All the best and good hunting.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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tobydad: You place orders for all of the list? Then when one makes price, others are canceled???
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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yes to first question.
Then when one makes what price?
I sell, usually within about 5 days or at first sign of pullback; low volume, wrong candlestick, etc.
After selling, I put them in my In Play watchlist and starting watching them for a 2nd leg up.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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john ...
I believe what you are asking with your second question is ...
Is Tobydad only looking for one position ... or is he willing to manage ~20 concurrent positions so long as the proper criteria are met ... and maintained ...
And ... unless I'm mistaken ... Tobydad is more than willing to concurrently manage ~20 open positions ...
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Oh! I got it now...shows how little I understand about all of this.
OK, yes, RC is correct. Especially with the success of this system so far, I am more than willing to manage ~20 open positions. God has been very very kind to me (I certainly don't deserve His blessings); these groups have done very well so managing them has not been very tough.
Of course, we'll see how long the good thing lasts.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2007
Posts: 48
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TD - Thanks for sharing - It's incredibly generous of you. Anyone who followed your March picks knows that there are real possibilities here. CENX, SOA, HPY were all very good to me. Got out of AIB too quickly, I'm learing to keep my eye on them after the 1st stop.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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QUOTE (emce48)
I'm learing to keep my eye on them after the 1st stop.
This is a really important part of profitability for swing trading. I use the following watchlists:
Buy Watch (stocks I'm seriously watching)
Pending Buys (stocks for which I have placed buy orders)
Portfolio (stocks that I currently own)
In Play (stocks that have stopped out and I am watching for the next leg up)
Sell Watch (obvious)
Pending Shorts (obvious)
Time management and patience have become tools as important as any others for me.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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and why, today, would you decide to take a position in 20 different stocks? is it you think the market is oversold? or are you gambling on earnings?
it appears you look for low priced stocks in lateral ranges, with strong moneystream, and then just take a position on an up day. where do you stop out? do you adhere to a risk:reward ratio. this almost seems like your are essentially buying options.
your methods appear unconventional, but i'm always open to new ideas.
those reits stocks looks promising.
good luck
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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It looks to me like we are hitting a support trendline. I don't think we've fallen out of our temporary vacation from the bear market (relief rally). By using hidden and conditional buy orders above the high of each day, I am usually able to buy at a fairly low while fairly safe price. I may be a bit premature with this group.. should probably wait for the first signs of confirmation.
Everyone please be careful. I'd hate to see anyone take losses because of me. We've been very fortunate (blessed, I call it) so far with this strategy. I must be cautious to not become greedy (either for money or attention). Gotta keep my nose to the grindstone, remain patient and vigilant.
Stop out: it seems like these are safe for about 5 days at a time. After that, if a stock is fitting the tobydad profile, I'll let it ride. Stocks that give me a doji near the ubb20, I tighten up the stops.
AIB, which emce48 mentioned above, is a good example of my system and stops: 3/11 was my first post on it (I think), buy order above the high of day (1.32), entry the next day, on 3/30 the low of day pierced the LR30 support, so 1.41 (a penny below the low of day) becomes my hidden/conditional stop, no stop out the next day so we let it ride; now it's above the ubb20 so it's either going into exponential growth or about to become overbought, if it shoots up on high volume and completely disconnects from the ubb20, I will set the stop very tight, it will almost surely reverse at that point and take a breather.
Don't do much with risk/reward; I should, just never have (too lazy, maybe?)
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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By the way, I'll do my best to update the list if some fall out or others should be considered.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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I've taken a look at these and some do fit my trading style. I am not sure what time frame you are trading but, unfortunately, due to my physical geological location, I can really only trade end of day.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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End of day is perfect; that's exactly what I do. Each of these lists have returned a high 2-digit return within a few weeks or less.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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I now have a watchlist named Tobydad. Hahaha. How many shares do you trade each time or is that porprietary information?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I trade enough shares so that I can honor the 2% rule of risk for whatever stop loss I'm going to select on a particular stock. Did that make any sense at all? If not, point out my horrible grammatical structure and I'll try to explain more succinctly.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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ENER is looking really nice; lots of potential. Let's hope it drifts back down to the lbb20 while we ride safely above it with our buy orders above the successively lower hod's. That would be the perfect scenario. We'll catch it fairly low but safely at that point.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Well, we're off to a nice start. 20 winners, 1 loser (I added one to the list but can't remember which one). Anyone, comparing close to close, we're up over 12% as a group today.
I'll take it. Let's see where it goes from here.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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By the way, the group I listed on 3/4 is up 112% as of today.
The group from 3/10 is up 104%
The group from 3/14 is up 47%
The group from 3/31 is up 14%.
Pretty nice run; mostly winners, one or two losers. The groups definitely share some of the same picks.
Any way you slice it, I'll take it.
Hope the bear market hangs around a while. God is being kind to me, I don't deserve this.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/31/2005
Posts: 266
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Well, thats a pretty good record. Of course, just about any group has done well, if you only go back to when the market bottomed.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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this looks like a good strategy as long as you can time your buy's just before the market explodes. lol.
but, whether you like this strategy or not, one things for sure, there is tremedous potential in penny stocks.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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The best timing comes, overall, from following the prices down the slope and buying just above a previous day's high.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 3
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Tobydad,
I guess LBB20 is Lower Bollinger Band 20, but I don't know what is LR30?
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (cn500) Tobydad,
I guess LBB20 is Lower Bollinger Band 20, but I don't know what is LR30?
linear regression 30 period?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Correct. Thank you funnymony.
Driger; of course, only time will tell, and I have no offering to sell, but this did well the first time around back in Nov/Dec. The entire portfolio increased about 55% that time around (praise be to God).
We'll just have to see. As I say, I have no reason other than hoping to help others with a new found blessing.
Everyone enjoy your Easter weekend.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2007
Posts: 48
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The goup is doing quite nicely - The ones I've gotten in are APPY, MIC,CNO - Also OWW.. which woke up today on really nice volume. On another note, I had filed your observations on FNM - Indeed once it found a comfort zone above .79 .. continued to move through resistance .... Sitting now above BB10 LR30.
Thanks TD...
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Group is up 17% so far.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (tobydad) Group is up 17% so far.
the list starting to look a little red. time to exit?
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Registered User
Joined: 6/9/2007
Posts: 68
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Tobydad, first of all I want to thank you for continueing the learning process for so many of us newbies. You are following where many others have led and taught. I am always lurking in the background trying to pick up some strategy to help me choose more wisely. I have read your 'Profile' for quite a while now but have not tried to replicate it for my own purposes until now. I wasn't paying attention for the last few weeks, and when I tried to replicate your list of last Tuesday 4/7, I failed miserably. I didn't come with any of your stocks. Having said that, I would like to try again. Do you plan to publish a 'new' list anytime soon? Again, thank you for the giving of your knowledge. You sound like a great guy. Don't let BB get you down. He has a history of negativity. Consider the source. Again, thanks.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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djr;
I'll share any news I think is good and helpful (like the love of the Savior, first of all...but that's not trading news) anytime I get it. The lists come when the market timing is right, or at least that I can tell to the best of my abilities.
But let's also talk about what you mean by failed miserably. How did you fail? What happened? Give us some background so we can all learn. Trust me, others will jump in to offer insights.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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...and BigBlock? No problem. He and I are good buddies. We just play good trader bad trader. It's a little game we rehearse backstage.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2007
Posts: 48
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QUOTE (funnymony) QUOTE (tobydad) Group is up 17% so far.
the list starting to look a little red. time to exit?
Only the ones that would deserve an exit. The list has produced 14 winners - 3 losers. Also you would not have entered any of the losing trades if following TD's entry rules. I entered MIC 4/9 .. following Toby's entry rules .. if you need a refresher .. its available. Better yet the next time TD publishes a list, why don't you publish your picks ?
Toby, Sorry if I am speaking out of turn .. you give of your talents so generously .. while others seem to only be able to offer sarcasm
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Registered User
Joined: 6/9/2007
Posts: 68
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I guess I should explain 'failed miserably'. As I said I had not paid much attention until the weekend (4/11) and since I hadn't updated Telechart since the week before (4/4), I thought I could run the Tobydad scan based on 4/4 data and come 'close' to replicating the 4/7 list. (Have I lost everybody yet?) Needlessly to say it didn't work. Here are some of the ones I came out with (not the entire list): COGO, ELOY, EVJ, HYP, MUE, and NPX. Today I added VSCP, CSII, and MMV. None are winners yet except ELOY which is up about $.40 or so. The reason I asked about your 'next' list is that I want to be on time to try and replicate it. Keep up the good work.
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Registered User
Joined: 6/9/2007
Posts: 68
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QUOTE (emce48) QUOTE (funnymony) QUOTE (tobydad) Group is up 17% so far.
the list starting to look a little red. time to exit?
Only the ones that would deserve an exit. The list has produced 14 winners - 3 losers. Also you would not have entered any of the losing trades if following TD's entry rules. I entered MIC 4/9 .. following Toby's entry rules .. if you need a refresher .. its available. Better yet the next time TD publishes a list, why don't you publish your picks ?
Toby, Sorry if I am speaking out of turn .. you give of your talents so generously .. while others seem to only be able to offer sarcasm
Actually, by my count, of the original 21: 18 are winners, 2 are losers, and 1 is a zero (which I guess makes it a loser).
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Registered User
Joined: 6/9/2007
Posts: 68
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'Actually, by my count, of the original 21: 18 are winners, 2 are losers, and 1 is a zero (which I guess makes it a loser).'
And I meant to say, 'Most Impressive!!'.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (emce48) QUOTE (funnymony) QUOTE (tobydad) Group is up 17% so far.
the list starting to look a little red. time to exit?
Only the ones that would deserve an exit. The list has produced 14 winners - 3 losers. Also you would not have entered any of the losing trades if following TD's entry rules. I entered MIC 4/9 .. following Toby's entry rules .. if you need a refresher .. its available. Better yet the next time TD publishes a list, why don't you publish your picks ?
Toby, Sorry if I am speaking out of turn .. you give of your talents so generously .. while others seem to only be able to offer sarcasm
first of all, i didn't realize my comment was so offensive.
second, tobydad can speak for himself and doesn't need you as a keeper.
and lastly, i don't care to publish chart lists here, for the benefit of twits like you,
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2007
Posts: 48
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QUOTE (funnymony) QUOTE (emce48) QUOTE (funnymony) QUOTE (tobydad) Group is up 17% so far.
the list starting to look a little red. time to exit?
Only the ones that would deserve an exit. The list has produced 14 winners - 3 losers. Also you would not have entered any of the losing trades if following TD's entry rules. I entered MIC 4/9 .. following Toby's entry rules .. if you need a refresher .. its available. Better yet the next time TD publishes a list, why don't you publish your picks ?
Toby, Sorry if I am speaking out of turn .. you give of your talents so generously .. while others seem to only be able to offer sarcasm
first of all, i didn't realize my comment was so offensive.
second, tobydad can speak for himself and doesn't need you as a keeper.
and lastly, i don't care to publish chart lists here, for the benefit of twits like you,
don't care to publish = lack the conviction = don't have the guts
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (tobydad)
I'll be entering buy orders (hidden/conditional) just above the closing high of day.
"closing" high of the day? not exactly sure what that means. but if it means just "high of the day," then many buy orders wouldn't have triggered on 4/8, according to your criteria. and on 4/9 the market gapped up at the open, so making good entries would have been difficult. seems "actual" gains would be much less than what the 4 day bar % change shows on the charts.
i hope scrutizing this system doesn't offend anyone.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I don't think funnymony intended any offense and I certainly took none. Everyone has different trading styles and differing time frames is one of the things that vary between styles. I think, if I recall correctly, funnymony is more of an intraday trader. I'm more days or weeks oriented. For funnymony's style of trading (funnymony, please correct me here), the list going red on a day like today would, indeed, be cause for a sell off.
And, frankly, selling would not have been the worst move in the world had one entered the list from the outset. A quick return of a couple of percent in a day is never bad in this environment.
I'm sorry if I didn't use the correct terminology re: "closing high of the day". I meant the high of the day as of market close at 4:30pm.
It would be valuable, in the interest of reviewing just how useful this strategy is, to post my entries from the other day. Then we could really evaluate this as we go along. Funnymony brings up a good point here.
Let me be clear that I have no reason to want to prove anything to anyone; this strategy will not last forever, in fact, it may already have run its course. My only interest is to bring it here for others to share in if it was going to keep being as good as its been to me so far.
I'll try to make time to check my entries and post them.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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By the way, scrutinizing any system is what we must do. You can be sure the markets will not be kind to us. That's part of the reason I'm posting, we all need to tear apart anything that appears to be working. Find the holes in it, there are no chinks in the armor because there is no armor. Anything that we think is working can make us lazy. We want to sit back and think we've found the Holy Grail. Look, finding the Holy Grail is to realize there is no Holy Grail to find.
Scrutinize away funnymony; and anyone/everyone else. I have nothing to protect. I'm just excited to have found something that was/is working so well. I figured if it's good it's worth sharing with others.
by the way, funnymony may have well called it right; the charts are looking like maybe we got in just in time to grab a couple of percent and get back out. It looked to me like we might have been near resistance but I was hoping we were going to bust through and keep climbing. May not happen this time. Be on your guard. Repeat the mantra....Profits are good. Protect your capital. Profits are good. Protect your capital...
In my opinion, taking some profits is always better than accepting any loss.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I have positions in these so far:
APPY
CENX
DRYS
FR
FT
GMXR
IBOC
IGLD
LNC
MIC
NCS
OCNF
OWW
RDNT
WNC
Previous holdings
SAY
TSEM
MNDO
ZN
Of the stocks from the current "list", GMXR, NCS and LNC were not great fills. LNC was the worst, instead of getting in above 4/7's high of day, I got filled at 10.01. Blech. But now let's use that to see how to manage a bad fill. Nausea and pounding on the table are not two of the options.
Buying a dog to kick is not a bad idea though....just kidding.
The highs of early Jan to late Jan to early Feb form a resistance trendline which LNC has hit up against. I knew that was there ahead of time (you should always have your lines drawn...in more ways than one perhaps...that's what I teach my kids) but I was hoping to get filled above the high of 4/7 and get a nice quick profit if we didn't break through. Well, this backfired and we didn't break through plus we didn't get a good fill. So now what to do? For me, price is still above the LR30 so I'm not panicking...concerned but not panicking. My original stop was at 8.59; for my position size that is well within my maximum allowable loss of 2% of total portfolio for any one position.
After today's market behavior, I could almost justify moving the stop to 9.24, just below today's low after the close, but I think I'm going to wait and see if the low pierces the LR30. The pattern from early March through early April looks pretty good so I'm going to trust God that we've made the best picks we can and see what happens.
Thanks funnymony for bringing this up. Good exercise for us all.
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Registered User
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Posts: 2,181
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QUOTE (djr311) I guess I should explain 'failed miserably'. As I said I had not paid much attention until the weekend (4/11) and since I hadn't updated Telechart since the week before (4/4), I thought I could run the Tobydad scan based on 4/4 data and come 'close' to replicating the 4/7 list. (Have I lost everybody yet?) Needlessly to say it didn't work. Here are some of the ones I came out with (not the entire list): COGO, ELOY, EVJ, HYP, MUE, and NPX. Today I added VSCP, CSII, and MMV. None are winners yet except ELOY which is up about $.40 or so. The reason I asked about your 'next' list is that I want to be on time to try and replicate it. Keep up the good work.
djr, which scan did you run? I don't want to confuse anyone. Let's see if we can figure out what's happening. Whether you use "my" system (it feels so stupid to say that) or not, doesn't matter, let's find something that works for you. Many people on this forum have some great ideas that might be your best bet, my ideas are a little quirky.
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