Registered User
Joined: 12/18/2008
Posts: 150
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looking at spy, yesterdays large down move signalled a possible new leg down. but any sort of up move today (unless a doji) looks like itll create an uptrend continuation
anyone else have thoughts or opinions?
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Registered User
Joined: 8/15/2006
Posts: 132
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WSE,
I like the idea but am sure ready for a fake out. I would like to see the spy break the 87-88 area before I really think of anything longer than a day trade on the long side.
Scott
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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well ...
I was only looking for a retest of the second line on the supercycle chart ... as it offered so much support on the way down ... it only stands to reason that the inverse would be true on the way back up ... so ... when it hit ... I split ...
From the bullish perspective ... I would find it quite disconcerting that the markets plunged straight through the 10 ema/daily ... without even trying to find support there ...
Logically ... it would seem that at the very least we would get a retest of that resistance level ...
However ... the market reminds me daily ... that it owes me NOTHING ....
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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Thanks to WSE and Scott along with the rest of the usual good posters for bringing some good experience, good info, professionalism, to the site. Just what we need. Hope you guys stick around.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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Thanks to WSE and Scott along with the rest of the usual good posters for bringing some good experience, good info, professionalism, to the site. Just what we need. Hope you guys stick around.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Cramer is bullish ...
Nuff said ...
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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Does that mean we go short?
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Registered User
Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 889
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depends on the time-frame of your trades. If intermediate, I think it's too early to tell whether this is a good short opp or a good pullback to load up the longs.
I'm about 20% long, and watching closely whether I add on the pullback or take profits because this thing is heading lower.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/30/2009
Posts: 267
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QUOTE (mmscottyb) WSE,
I like the idea but am sure ready for a fake out. I would like to see the spy break the 87-88 area before I really think of anything longer than a day trade on the long side.
Scott
I agree with this. SPY is still in a downtrend. I would be looking for a good point to short this if I were to play it.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
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QUOTE (johnlc) Does that mean we go short?
I Cramer is long, I'm thinking shorts and inverse ETFs....
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"Cramer is long, I'm thinking shorts and inverse ETFs...."
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He likes gold too.
(heh, heh)
That's what I thought all the "smart" folks were in?
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 8/15/2006
Posts: 132
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I am trying to find the real strength, everyone is screaming bull, seems like a explosive day up, will it create a nice short for tomorrow?
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (mmscottyb) I am trying to find the real strength, everyone is screaming bull, seems like a explosive day up, will it create a nice short for tomorrow?
i've never found these to be good indicators of technical weakness.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (thekubiaks) QUOTE (johnlc) Does that mean we go short?
I Cramer is long, I'm thinking shorts and inverse ETFs....
so cramer first said, there would be no bear market, then went bearish at 10,000, then called the bottom at 5300, and now hes says the bear market is over.
and nows he likes gold after a 200% increase from the bottom, too.
thats quite a track record.
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Registered User
Joined: 8/15/2006
Posts: 132
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QUOTE (funnymony) QUOTE (mmscottyb) I am trying to find the real strength, everyone is screaming bull, seems like a explosive day up, will it create a nice short for tomorrow?
i've never found these to be good indicators of technical weakness.
Hi funnymoney,
I am trying to find some that prove overall strength and with there being weakness underlying I am not so convinced. Then when you look at the sales pitch by cnbc and everyone else it sure looks like a fake out, I hope not but I have shorted the market earlier today in response to what I feel will be a down day tomorrow. The best measure of a bottom just might be when no one on the street wants to buy anymore as backwards as that sounds, it sure worked for the top when everyone thought they could jump in and buy stocks to make money.
Scott
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Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
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QUOTE (mmscottyb) QUOTE (funnymony) QUOTE (mmscottyb) I am trying to find the real strength, everyone is screaming bull, seems like a explosive day up, will it create a nice short for tomorrow?
i've never found these to be good indicators of technical weakness.
Hi funnymoney,
I am trying to find some that prove overall strength and with there being weakness underlying I am not so convinced. Then when you look at the sales pitch by cnbc and everyone else it sure looks like a fake out, I hope not but I have shorted the market earlier today in response to what I feel will be a down day tomorrow. The best measure of a bottom just might be when no one on the street wants to buy anymore as backwards as that sounds, it sure worked for the top when everyone thought they could jump in and buy stocks to make money.
Scott
although with the cheerleaders on board, its beginning to feel like a suckers rally, breadth remains strong on the daily. so i'm keepin my powder dry.
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Registered User
Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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How much of this G2 conf. is affecting the market? Like Scott said, certainly feels like a downer tomorrow. Would be nice to have a nice strong Friday, though.
I was listening to the Dave Ramsey radio show this morning, a guy who tells people how to try to get out of debt because of their own overspending. (good comedy show) Anyway the conversation got around to The Pres. of the USA firing the CEO of a corporation (GM). Dave went on to explain how this is total Marxism, when the govt. moves in and takes over private business. Sounds like what we got now. And everyone said communism was dead. Maybe in Russia it is but seems to be working in the USA.
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Joined: 4/23/2008
Posts: 214
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Obama looks at business as an evil corrupt greedy entity that steals from poor people. He has the mentality of a union organizer that is going to kick businesses ass to get what he wants. In his view business has to pay for its greedy crimes against the people.
GM is Obama’s I whupped’um and they ain’t getting back up case. Obama is using GM as an example to other large businesses that stand in his way. Wagner was just a pawn in game that Obama is trying to win. He intends to tax these “rich giants” to feed his socialism. By doing this he sees himself as a “Lincoln of the people” who is going to tax the hell out of the “rich boys” to give back to the “average Joe.”
Next are the multinational corporations who have become prosperous by using affective marketing to the rest of the world. Obama plans to tax these companies to death and set them up as examples of bastards who don’t create jobs in the U.S. and are evil greedy companies who leave their money in foreign countries so it can’t be taxed here.
“Dam Healthcare” will soon be shouted from Obama’s lips are he tackles the next business giant. The slogan “time to socialize” slogan will be shouted from the roof tops as he maligns healthcare and tells them they will be swallowed up in the government. He plans to increase the federal governments spending to the breaking point to pass out “free” healthcare.
Any American business that stands in Obama’s way will get crushed. He will go far beyond the constitution to win his “civil business war”. Soon we will become sick of the media circus that daily bashes another segment of business as stupid. He plans to “edumacate” us on how evil American business has become.
Obama’s stupidity will be his undoing. While he shouts “Create jobs….Create jobs…” he is intimidating the very people he should be placating. These are the people who can create jobs and bring about a speedy recovery. By injecting massive amounts of fear in Americas business leaders he will prolong this recession through out most of his first term in office.
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Joined: 2/21/2007
Posts: 797
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AGM: EXACTLY!! It's always a good idea to put corporate america out of business, who needs them, plus people don't need jobs. Where do we sign up for welfare and food stamps? I figure I've paid into it for over 30 years, should have plenty of money built up in my personal welfare account.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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"AGM: EXACTLY!! It's always a good idea to put corporate america out of business"
Well they cant go too hog wild.
(they need somebody to tax)
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 12/18/2008
Posts: 150
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i forgot i put this post up, was wondering if anyone followed through with my statement?
overall, charts are still bearish on the weekly charts but remain bullish on the daily. i would play the bull move lightly and take advantage of any bearish formations
looking at the spy...
a close below 81 should give us a nice reversal back for the downside, consolidation around 78, and then a possible push to about 74
a close above 86, should give us a push up to as high as 90
i think right now the spy is in no man's land.. we have low intraday volume, big swings, and everyone fleeing to options.
id like to see consolidation around 81-82 and then a reversal back to the downside
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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wse ...
It's good to have you here ...
I'm still holding a couple of small long positions ... but I must admit ... I'm mostly in cash right now ...
QUOTE (agm32) Obama’s stupidity will be his undoing. While he shouts “Create jobs….Create jobs…” he is intimidating the very people he should be placating. These are the people who can create jobs and bring about a speedy recovery. By injecting massive amounts of fear in Americas business leaders he will prolong this recession through out most of his first term in office.
Agm32 ...
I'm not sure if you're old enough to remember Reagan's first term ...
But the thing that he really did that turned the economy around was the "Investment Tax Credit" ...
This allowed businesses to write off 10% of their investments in new equipment, facilities, etc ... right off of the bottom line of their tax bill ... and then accelerated depreciation for the balance ...
This sparked a wave of investment that was unparalled in the history of the US ... providing jobs for a quarter of a century ...
All of these stimulus programs ... which are really just spending programs ... will have short-lived effects ...
It's sort of like the old saying ... "If you give a man a fish ... you feed him for a day ... if you teach a man to fish ... you feed him for a lifetime ..."
Well ... the govt is giving the people a fish ... but the fish won't last very long ...
Meanwhile ... back at the ranch ... they are instituting policies that will make even more American businesses and jobs move abroad ...
You mentioned the large multinational corporations ... so I assume that you're talking about Obama's plan to tax the profits of these companies that are earned abroad ...
These companies will simply move abroad ... to avoid the tax ...
Two oil companies have already announced plans to move thier headquarters to Switzerland ...
And I'm sure that many, many others ... will be right on their heels ...
Until the liberal sect of this country comes to terms with the fact the the US needs the rich ... a helluva lot more than the rich need the US ... we as a nation ... are on the way out ...
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Registered User
Joined: 12/18/2008
Posts: 150
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hope you guys listened to this thread 
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2007
Posts: 48
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wse - do you still have the same convictions regarding a close above 86 for SPY ? Support at the trend at each pullback .. volume not great but holding steady
Thanks .. emce
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Registered User
Joined: 12/18/2008
Posts: 150
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its a hard call... the momentum is there but price action seems to have died out making it too risky for upside. if i were to play spy to the upside, id place a stop around 84.1
if spy manages to make a close over the next 3 consecutive days closing below 83, id look for another leg down but no clue where...
the volume in the market overall has been low due to a lot of factors so i wouldnt use it to help judge up or down direction. also, i would avoid using the vix for indication of market direction as this is the first bear market the vix has ever been in.
with volume dropping off.. id look for extended swings in one direction at a time... for example.. 8 weeks up, 8 weeks down, 8 weeks up, 8 weeks down.. id look to trade more exchange traded funds but steer clear from 2x and 3x funds
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Registered User
Joined: 12/18/2008
Posts: 150
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btw... one thing that i think will be a catalyst for the market is when foreclosure numbers hit the street. suspensions on foreclosures by fnm and fre expired 2 weeks ago so things might get interesting. yesterday i started picking up some june puts on 2 financials i cant mention directly. but here are some hints...
1- never sleeps
2- dont leave home without it
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Registered User
Joined: 5/12/2008
Posts: 102
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Let me guess:
1 never sleeps: C
2 don't leave home without it: MA
Credit card defaults are rising dramatically, hence my guess with MA
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2007
Posts: 48
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wse - Thanks for the insight .. thats a very interesting tidbit on the mortgage suspensions expiring. I had missed that. As one relativley new to "The Game " it's encouraging that my thoughts on SPY were along the same lines along with the etfs. I've been moving in and out of UYG ..
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Registered User
Joined: 12/18/2008
Posts: 150
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you got 1right
2 s wrong though :P
no problem emce
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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2 is American Express ...
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Registered User
Joined: 12/18/2008
Posts: 150
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bingo! give the man a cookie lol
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