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Tobydad and apsll
You both appear to have a technique which allows you to get into a stock early in a rally.
If you would care to share it, I would like to know it.
If you are hesitant to post it on the forum, you can email me through Wordens where L am known as Sir Indicator Shark.
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Sir Indicator Shark I hope that Tobydad and I can give our answers to you un-molested. If not than I will try the e-mail or PM”you know where".
I use different techniques for different Market conditions. Right now I am just playing the bullish waves as they come in. When I see that the markets appear to be setting up for a bullish rally than I will run my scans to confirm that there are plenty of charts following suit. I will look at support and resistance levels and where price is in proximity to these and other critical levels. Next I will run my risk analysis to see if any nice looking charts are worth my time. It is a matter of price per share and how many shares I can buy vs the points available in any potential run.
I like to use Tobydads method of buying above the previous days high. (Scott and I learned that one many years ago through Techni-Trader).
To better answer your question, I study past price action and the conditions that have led to previous rallies. I try to create scans and indicators to let me know when these conditions are available now and in what stocks. I then put together a list and watch them on my live streaming quotes. I then act or not act on what I see in real time. The trick is to match the indicator or scans with the current Market sentiment. Because that can change rather quickly some of my indicators will stop working and I will have to go back to the drawing board.
That is really all I do. You only need to read my threads to see my ever changing indicators and trading styles as the Markets themselves are ever changing. Despite my critics; or better put "critic" I have had success in not only making money for myself but my friends as well on multiple forums. You your self are a testament to that along with many others that I hear from and tutor to this day. I stay in touch with most of them via "Skype" it is a free way to talk with folks all over the world. Set up an account and shoot me a PM with your user name and I will contact you. I can have you see what I see on my Desk top. (You need a pair of head sets with a microphone).
The next time I see some bullish set-ups I will post the indicators and detail how I find my picks...
I hope that I have helped a little Bcraig..
Apsll.
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Next I will run my risk analysis to see if any nice looking charts are worth my time. It is a matter of price per share and how many shares I can buy vs the points available in any potential run.
APSLL.
Exactly, what kind of risk analysis is this? Can you explain to everyone how your risk analysis works?
So by what you say, your risk only relates to profits - "how many shares I can buy versus the "speculated" - I rather call unicorn target - target profit.
If that is your definition of risk I strongly believe that your terms are extremelly messed up.
Explain please.
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Bigblock, I do not take requests from those that are not worth spitting on. If Bcraig is in need of further explanation then I will gladly accommodate him. You, we all just laugh at and I will not lower myself to explain anything to.
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ya, tobydad is early, sometimes weeks early.
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QUOTE (BigBlock)
Next I will run my risk analysis to see if any nice looking charts are worth my time. It is a matter of price per share and how many shares I can buy vs the points available in any potential run.
APSLL.
Exactly, what kind of risk analysis is this? Can you explain to everyone how your risk analysis works?
So by what you say, your risk only relates to profits - "how many shares I can buy versus the "speculated" - I rather call unicorn target - target profit.
If that is your definition of risk I strongly believe that your terms are extremelly messed up.
Explain please.
Can you take this somewhere else? This is getting really lame and tiresome.
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I wish he ould Ben, I wish he would. He cannot help himself...
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bcraig;
funnymony is correct. Sometimes my picks are so early they are not worth watching for the typical active investor.
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QUOTE (ben2k9) QUOTE (BigBlock)
Next I will run my risk analysis to see if any nice looking charts are worth my time. It is a matter of price per share and how many shares I can buy vs the points available in any potential run.
APSLL.
Exactly, what kind of risk analysis is this? Can you explain to everyone how your risk analysis works?
So by what you say, your risk only relates to profits - "how many shares I can buy versus the "speculated" - I rather call unicorn target - target profit.
If that is your definition of risk I strongly believe that your terms are extremelly messed up.
Explain please.
Can you take this somewhere else? This is getting really lame and tiresome.
What would you rather do ben - request an explanation to this nonsense " Next I will run my risk analysis to see if any nice looking charts are worth my time. It is a matter of price per share and how many shares I can buy vs the points available in any potential run.
or request an explanation. Perhaps you can explain that "Risk Analysis".
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Look, it's obvious the pupose of your post was to provoke. Why can't you just ignore each other?
If you want to add some VALUE, you could spend your energy explaining your own opinions & methods on risk management / analysis instead of condescending everyone elses.
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QUOTE (ben2k9) Look, it's obvious the pupose of your post was to provoke. Why can't you just ignore each other?
If you want to add some VALUE, you could spend your energy explaining your own opinions & methods on risk management / analysis instead of condescending everyone elses.
No, that is what you want to think - that it was to provoke. I can't control what you or anyone else reads in my words.
The comment was to bring up to attention that the remarks focusing on Risk made no sense.
I think it is my right to question. It is the writer's duty to prove its point or to dismiss it.
I still has been giving on reason to think any different, and I am sure that is because I was correct in the first place.
Obviously if you don't question the informationg you read I mus assume that you don't care about the quality of the content some folks post here. I do.
Obviously the poster is more interested in dimining and diverting the question than in answering probably because he knows he can possibly prove its point.
If that is good enough for you - that is fine. We all set our standards. It isn't good enough for me.
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I have spelled out my risk management techniques through out this forum time and time again. The dialog was between Bcraig and me and had nothing to do with you Bigblock. Since I do not like you then you are going to have to do the research to look up my old posts to get your answers. I gave Bcraig broad strokes because he and I have been friends for a few years now and he more than likely remembers my posts on this subject. If he cannot remember than I will be glad to refresh his memory.
You on the other hand I would not give the time of day to.
This should clear up any future doubts as to why I will not participate or cooperate in your interrogations.
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It is a matter of price per share and how many shares I can buy vs the points available in any potential run.
Apsll.
If your "Risk Theories" are so well spelled as you say - then why is there such a FLAWED comment as the one above.
What is flawed is flawed, and you either have to change it or it will continue to be flawed regardless.
I know you cannot explain the above because it really has no sensible explanation. It would probably easier to accept that, than go around trying to pretend it means something it doesn't
What I actually wonder is whether you realize why it is flawed. Do you?
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GOODBYE BIGBLOCK 
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bcraig;
I think you've seen the set up I use; other than that, I try to look for quality stocks that have been beaten down so that they are undervalued, then I watch the VIX using my regular setup and watch for short term turnarounds.
In this market I just sit on the sidelines watching for a turn around in the markets; short term of course. I'd like to be in around 5 days at a time, make good returns and then be out for several weeks watching and researching.
Working pretty well so far.
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Tobydad
I have not been able to find the VIX so that I can put in a template. How can I get it?
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QUOTE (bcraig73450) Tobydad
I have not been able to find the VIX so that I can put in a template. How can I get it?
Try VIX--X ...
You may also want to look at the VXN--X for the NASDAQ ...
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VIX--X, note the double dashes. Also, it will be listed under "All Indexes". I have made a separate watchlist entitled "Favorite Indexes".
(Some will argue that the plural of Index is Indices but we can make that a discussion for another time--just a little fun with vocabulary there).
I'm not sure how to find your email, will admin give me that? There's so much clutter on this forum sometimes that it might be better to communicate directly.
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I hope that there is a way as I would like to be able to contact you directly also Tobydad. I can already contact Bcraig directly. It is funny; I do the same exact thing that you do. I sit on the sidelines doing my research and wait fot the stars to align in the markets. (the VIX, VXN and lets not forget the VXD and the VXO) I then look for Bullish set-ups in the "Indices"
Bcraig will let me know when you contact him if you are cool with giving me your contact info. Skype is awsome for this, we can set up live chat rooms for multiple people...
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I am relatively new at technical analysis and my knowledge level is still relatively low so please bear with me. After reading Apsll’s earlier post in this thread, I have a question on the the following part in particular:
“Next I will run my risk analysis to see if any nice looking charts are worth my time. It is a matter of price per share and how many shares I can buy vs the points available in any potential run.”
I believe I understood what Apsll was saying about risk –vs- reward and it made perfect sense to me (Price per share, potential run, and stop). One part I was not real clear on and I know this is just due to my lack of knowledge, was how many shares you buy on any given stock purchase. Apsll is the amount (total shares) you purchase on any given trade, other than maybe a maximum % of account value (2%, 3%, etc), a part of your risk analysis? If so, could you elaborate on just how you factor in the total number of shares to purchase into your risk/reward analysis on any given trade? After reading your post, I just want to be sure I am not overlooking an important aspect of a trade. I have always found your posts to be informative and enlightening and have learned quite a bit from your posts over the last 8 to 10 months and value your perspective on trading.
Big Block, I have also learned from your posts as well over the months and I would sincerely be interested in hearing about your approach to risk –vs– reward analysis on any given trade.
One thing that has become very evident to me over the last 8 to 10 months is that everyone has their way of doing things and just because two people take a different approach to something doesn’t mean one is right and the other is wrong, or one is better than the other. If it works for you then it works for you and I certainly can’t, and won't, argue with success, no matter who’s success it is…. My only goal here is to learn what I can about trading and select those ideas/concepts that I am comfortable with and can incorporate into my own trading.
One last thing, as I stated above I am relatively new to trading and one area I am struggling with is accurately/properly identifying support and resistant levels. I’m not sure why this particular aspect of trading is difficult for me, it just is. Would this be the proper forum to maybe post a chart with what I believe are support and resistant levels for a stock and get some feedback from those that are more experienced and knowledgeable than I to see if I am correctly identifying support and resistant levels? If this isn’t the proper place, would anyone be able to direct me to the proper forum?
Paul
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Paul,
I found the book "technical analysis of financial markets" by John Murphy to be an excellent primer on most all technical concepts, such as support and resistance...which he spends a good deal of time on.
I would highly recommend this book if you're serious about learning.
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Paul, I would be glad to explain my risk calculations to you. I will be showing you two charts that I just made up, they do not represent any known company or stocks.
In chart A: I show you what a bad or high risk trade would look like
In chart B: I show you what a much less or lower risk trade looks like
Chart A is stock XYZ and you can see that it is showing a reversal pattern so I want to buy on the break out at say $11. Now the next resistance level is at $14 and I would be looking to sell at that level as my target price. It would give me a profit of 28%. You can also see that I have placed my stop right bellow the most recent swing low at say $8. for a possible loss of 27%. These numbers are not good because my ratio on profit vs loss is about 1 to 1 or a 50% chance for profit or loss (as good as flipping a coin). For the purpose of this demonstration I have left out details such as commission, tax liability and slippage.
Here is the chart and I will show chart B on the following post.
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Ok, onto chart B. Just so you know this example is highly exaggerated and you will not find these kind of odds in the normal world but again as I stated above it is to demonstrate my point.
This is a chart on stock ABC you can see that it has been beaten down pretty hard and fast and is now bouncing for a possible reversal. Lucky for me that price is still close to the recent swing low and the next resistance level is pretty far away. So I run my risk analysis like so - If I buy this on the break-out lets say just above $10. and the resistance level is at around $27. then that would give me a profit of 170% and as I already stated my buy price of $10 is very close to the recent swing low of $9. I can place my stop there at $9 and my loss would be about 10%
The bottom line here is that I am risking 10% against a possible 170% gain. Of course if you do the math then you can see that this is a great risk to reward ratio.
Before I show the chart I want to make it clear that these scenarios are just for demonstration only. There are many other factors involved some of which I mentioned above. Others would be based on technical analysis of the charts and ones experience. You can increase risk if you have great experience and an understanding of technical analysis.
The amount of ones portfolio that should be risked on any given trade is a personal decision and must also be factored in.
I hope that this helps you understand how I asses risk. I do not speak for others only myself. Let me know if you have any other questions I will be glad to show you my methods. One last time; this is how I do things, you have stated very well I might add that we all have our own methods and you do what works best for you.
Good luck and I am glad that you have found some value in my posts.
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LOLO That "Risk / Reward is ridiculous. I just don't get it.
It is like when you get the call from the broker telling you - Wow I got a dynamite trade in ABC stock as evidence by the risk / reward ration of 8 to 1 profit - sounds convicing doesn't it. Run fast and hide in the fridge. The guy is an idiot, and the ratio is FLAWED.
What is wrong?
The definition is flawed in itself anytime that you take an expected risk and compare it to an expected return (reward by the fantasy price level). That return (reward) that you come up with whatever method, or alquemy you use is nothing else than a prediction. Hell, some guys have got retracements or price targets or calculations that double or halve the size of past formations or moves, or they flip and invert the last series of price bars - you name it.
And do they get it correct? Come on now - well once in while I suppose. But for the most part the fantasy always stays at that - a fantasy.
So that part of the equation is FLAWED. You are pretending a price level. It is a UNICORN NOT an apple.
The only thing that is being really defined in that +=/)(*&& "Theory" is the Risk and badly defined anyways. It reads like someone is begging for a frying pan in the face - and I am sure that is what they are getting.
Think about it.
You are defining normal maximum risk for a trade by placing (or intending to place) a stop at a specific price. If you are wrong, you have defined the maximum that you are likely to lose on the trade, more or less (since stop don't always catch and they are not guarateed, and many times they don't catch at all - overnight price gaps). But anyways there you got your apple. Not a great apple, but an apple nonetheless.
So the risk / reward as described, used, or structured by most is nothing but a LIE.
You need to compare apples to apples. And so we need to find another apple.
Sit down, I am not done yet.
You want to measure risk - right? Then lets compare apples. The only other certain figure that you have is the amount of funds in your account. Yeap, that is your other apple.
Allow your signal generator whateve it is - to pick your entry point.
Forget about reward - that is a unicorn (pure fantasy) NOT a fact. What you need to see is how much is going to cost you if you are wrong AND then compare that to the amount in your account. IF the risk takes too much of your account then walk away.
You compare Risk to Account Size. That is Apples to Apples. The size of your account will also automatically dictates the size of your trades.
What is the walk away zone? I estimated between 2 and 4 %.
If you can't find anything to trade within this conservative risk management, then I assume your account is too small for any real trading.
Did you ever wonder why traders are allowed to open an account with as little as $500? The house always wins on those.
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My better judgment tells me not to respond so I am taking a risk here but I have run my risk analysis and it tells me that if I debate without slinging any barbs that BigBlock might not throw a temper tantrum. So here I go. "Entry made, no stop loss"
Ok BB I have stated above that ones total capital or portfolio does play a role in how much one is willing to expose on each trade. I did not say that one even had to place a hard stop; only that you should evaluate an area where you might want to exit if the trade goes against you. But if you are position trading and cannot baby-sit your trades then a stop loss is better than nothing at all (yes you take a risk and yes options would be a better insurance policy).
It is always good to have a target price in mind before you take the trade based on solid technical analysis that is the way that I trade again one could use trailing stops to protect profit but then like you said what about “what about the dreaded gap". When one is not day trading then these are the inherent risks that you take. There are other ways to protect your self of course like using derivatives or hedging ones position.
I only painted broad strokes for Paul because it is how I do my basic analysis. You have spoken to portfolio allocation but still have not defined risk once the amount of capital has been expended for a given trade. What are your loss parameters? The entire amount allocated?
If you can supply answers without your usual theatrics than we can have a discussion if not then I will just listen to my better judgment and ignore you.
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Paul after re-reading your post, I do not think that I answered your question. I will do so now. I do not mind sharing my numbers so my basic net worth is as follows
Trading portfolio $400,000
IRA's $250,000 (it was higher before Bush killed us all)
Investment real-estate $$$$$$$
I used to have almost $700,000 in my trading portfolio but used not quit half that to increase my investment properties and cash. My goal is that when the next Bull market begins and the markets are more favorable to my kind of trading styles then I will re adjust my holdings.
Ok so I try not to risk more than 2% of my trading portfolio on any given trade. Lets say I buy X amount of shares at price Y and my total investment is $80,000. My exit strategy is based on not losing more than 10% of my initial investment, so that would be risking $8,000
Sometimes I will stumble across a lower price stock that shows me great potential and I will buy a lot of shares. In the past I made a lot of money just trading lower price stocks. My adventures are right here in the pages of this forum. Tobydad and I used to have a club, we called it the bottom feeders club and we had a few good members but they are all gone now. Anyway I must admit that I have always played the portfolio allocation game a bit on the loose side because of my confidence and success during the recent Bull Markets.
Well that is it Paul. I hope that I have now answered all your questions.
Nice to meet you and please try to participate more often, you sound like a nice person.
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Congrats Apsll
You managed to post a rebuttal to BigBlock without the mud slinging.
For that, I now give you an atta-boy.
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Thanks Agm, I just want stability to return to these forums. I will do my part. I do not mind explaining my opinion as long as others understand that they do not have to conform with traditional dogma. I believe and feel that I have proved that there is more than one road that leads to success; traditional or un-traditional.
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Why do you guys always beat around the bush when you are explaining risk management instead of just showing us the bush? Risk management does not require a book to explain. It's a very simple formula.
If you use Apsll's example of risking 2% of an account value of 400000 on a trade where the entry price is $10 and the stop is $9, then you have all the components of this simple formula that you need to determine how many shares you should trade. Does any one actually know what that formula is?
If so, show me the bush please.
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QUOTE (ben2k9) Paul,
I found the book "technical analysis of financial markets" by John Murphy to be an excellent primer on most all technical concepts, such as support and resistance...which he spends a good deal of time on.
I would highly recommend this book if you're serious about learning.
ben2k9,
Your ESP is working well! I had a discussion with an individual about this subject late last week and he recommended I read the same book. So, this past weekend I visited several of my favorite bookstores here in Phoenix and purchased a copy of this book from a used bookstore that is in pretty good shape and started reading. I have only made it to chapter 4 so far, but hopefully will finish the book in a week or so (slow reader) .
Thanks for your response, I am appreciative and thankful for all the help I can get.
Regards,
Paul
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calm yourself toots, There is no red tape in the bush... I have to be honest with you; I do not even use a formula. I just look at proximity to critical levels, market condition and then I just buy how ever many shares that I want. I try to get as good a reward ratio as I can but in the end it comes down to my confidence in my technical analysis.
There you go no Bush....
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Besides which, you just spelled out all the math that you need in your example so you need nothing further from us....
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Yes, but I didn't give you the last step - the formula (which takes the guest work out of how many shares you should trade based on your acceptable risk requirement).
Let's say our "fantasy target" (as Bigblock puts it) in your example is $12 while your entry is $10 and your stop is $9. Ok?
What's the risk to reward in this scenario?
And what does risk to reward mean?
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Apsll,
Thanks for taking the time to explain. This was really what my understanding was so it helped validated my thinking. A question for you, or anyone else, what are your thoughts on tweaking the stop to get the risk/reward ratio you want if the ratio is close to where you would like to have before entering a trade. I got into a discussion with a friend and he indicated that if he was looking for a 3 to 1 ratio at a minuimum before entering a trade and the ratio was close but not quite there (2.8 to 1) he would modify his stop to get the 3 to 1. Just curious if you have done similar or have any thoughts good or bad on that approach.
I feel I need to maybe apologize to you and even BB. My goal was to not get something started between you both. My goal is, and will always be, to learn and I always find others experiences are a good way to learn something new. Again thanks for the explanition, and I hope to be around for some time to come, just bare with me and my lack of knowledge and/or skill as I learn.
Paul
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QUOTE (BigBlock)
Stop by my blog- you will know where to find what you are looking for.
Uh. I couldn't find my answers BB. Where did you put them?
Is this one of those beating around the bush issues that I was talking about?
Why can't you guys ever give me a straight answer?
(Maybe you guys really don't know the answers).
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QUOTE (proberts1957) Apsll,
I feel I need to maybe apologize to you and even BB. My goal was to not get something started between you both. My goal is, and will always be, to learn and I always find others experiences are a good way to learn something new. Again thanks for the explanition, and I hope to be around for some time to come, just bare with me and my lack of knowledge and/or skill as I learn.
Paul
proberts, there is no need for you to apologize. I'm sure that Apsll and BigBlock both will agree that challenging an idea is a good thing. After all, if your statement will not stand up to public scrutiny, is it really good advice?
The trick is to not make it personal and stick to the subject.
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QUOTE (Tootsie) QUOTE (BigBlock)
Stop by my blog - you will know where to find what you are looking for.
Uh. I couldn't find my answers BB. Where did you put them?
Is this one of those beating around the bush issues that I was talking about?
Why can't you guys ever give me a straight answer?
(Maybe you guys really don't know the answers).
Well, it is in front of your face.
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QUOTE (Apsll)
(it was higher before Bush killed us all)
Apsll, my friend, you should take an objective look at who pushed the investment bankers to make risky loans and who tried to bring accountability to the process. (These are not opinion, they are matters of public record...just not highly publicized...I'll let the readers guess why)
By accusing the person in the federal government that has the least possible input into financial matters, you have quite gotten the cart before the horse.
Your contempt for our nation's last president does not reflect well on you when you misstate the facts.
Still friends but I'm not going to stand by and have someone misrepresent a man who stood by what he believed and endured one of the most difficult presidencies in the last century.
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Tootsie, you can research multiple formulas on just this subject by going to investopedia.com
I have to be up front with you as I already stated. I just look at a stocks price action and it all just popes into my head. That’s how many charts I have looked at over the years. I have explained to some friends that I can look at price action and tell you what the MACD will look like without even looking at the indicator. I can tell you what a volume indicator might look like just by looking at volume patterns. I can look at a chart for 5 seconds and know if the reward to risk ratio is worth my time. I do not then run a formula that tells me how many shares to buy. I just know what my available capital is and work accordingly. When I am getting close to the limits of my capital base then I will be more aware of what I can or cannot do.
Some might consider this undisciplined and I could not argue against that but that is how I operate. So when I say that I am doing my risk analysis that means that it is a 5 second process that I can see right in the chart.
If I see that I only have a couple of points to go before resistance then some might say why bother risk reward might be 1 to 1 or 2 to 1 but if I am convinced that the move is going to happen and I can buy enough shares and there is no other better opportunities available then I will take the trade. I admit that I am a very un-conventional trader so Tootsie I would say to you that stop wasting time trying to find a formula and start learning about charts. I do not care if anyone says that I am wrong it does not matter to me. I am going to keep doing what I do. There so you see I am not hiding anything from you.
Agm makes good points. I am willing to discuss anything with "Anyone" as long as they handle themselves with dignity...
Paul, I would not adjust my exit strategy or tweak it just to talk myself into a risky trade.
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