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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2004
Posts: 48
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IMHO I think FRX is coiling up for a breakout to the upside "soon" (today, tomorrow, next week, next month ... I'm talking odds here, not a prediction).
Lots going for it: I like how the 40-day moving average is slowly climbing up, giving support. Nice base over last several months. STO 14.4 looks like it wants to go up, while Moneystream shows cash flowing in since October. In the last 30 days, earnings estimates for the '09 year have been raised, albeit modestly. Forward P/E ratio is 7.5 and this company has no debt.
Goldman Sachs put out a Sell rating recently. Bah, I can't say I trust big investment banks any more.
I think this one's going up to test the 200-day moving average at around $30. Might be a good buy-and-hold candidate and wait for a buyout, seems like a good candidate due to all cash and no debt on the books.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I would say miss this one at your own peril.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2004
Posts: 48
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FRX broke down -5% on 3x volume today. Feds charge FRX with paying doctors kickbacks to prescribe their drugs. So much for the bullish pattern. Goes to show why you should always use protective stop loss orders, you never know when bad news might hit the wires.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Even better, Nut, use the buy above the high technique. I said it would be tragic to miss this stock on the 6th. But, on the 7th, it didn't make it over the previous day's high. I never got in long.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/29/2008
Posts: 26
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Just curious, what kept you from entering on the 7th when it did pass the high?
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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I assume you mean the 10th? Action on the 10th moved above the high of the 9th. That's not a comeback, it's a legitimate question for clarification; we are talking about Feb, right?
Anyway, assuming that's the case, the answer has to do with my system; TSV26 was up on the 6th but turned back down on the 9th or 10th.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Also volume pulled way back.
Although I can't tell you that in a mildly better market I would not have gotten in.
On the other hand, in a mildly better market, this stock probably would have taken off.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/29/2008
Posts: 26
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Thank you. You are correct, Feb 10th was the day I was looking at.
What is the relevance of TSV26? I plot with TSV20 and that did not show the drop that TSV26 did.
Also, thanks for admitting that you incorporate aggregate market conditions or feel in your decision making. It would be great if we could have an indicator for that but the best I have been able to do is count the number of uptrending and downtrending stocks/ etf's/indutries and looking at the daily worden comments to get a gut feel for the market feel.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Watch the VIX, study the VIX, love the VIX. Let the VIX guide you. (Actually letting the God that loves you guide you is better but not everyone is OK with that).
But, truly, the VIX is a great leading indicator. I apply my same template to it and look at it as if I was considering entering/exiting positions. It helps alot with other decisions.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Significance of the tsv26: 13 is the number of weeks in a typical quarter; stocks that I like frequently make quarterly moves. As an experiment years ago, I found out that TC2000 lets us apply bollinger bands to other indicators. So I tried a bb13 on tsv. For want of a better reason, I tried a multiple of 13 for my tsv number and used 26. It's been a love affair ever since.
Wish I could offer some more brilliant explanation but I often said that I don't have the knowledge and insights that many on this board have. I'm not in there league. Sometimes, God gives wisdom to the simple and the humble.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
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Wow, how sloppy; "there" should have been spelled "their".
Sorry.
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