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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2004
Posts: 48
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Friday, Oct. 10, had the markets in historically extreme oversold levels. Obviously financial institutions, hedge funds, mutual fund redemptions have been selling indiscriminately in the 8 days prior including Friday. Blood is in the streets.
When was the last time you saw the VIX over 70? Years, if ever. And we all know readings that high are unsustainable. The New High/New Low ratio is a miniscule 0.15%. Virtually all technical indicators are pegged at zero.
How about a snapback bear rally to the 50% Fibo level? In the DJ-30, if we take the Aug. 11 high of 11800 and Friday's low of 7880, 50% takes us back to 9850. From the 8450 close that's about an 8% gain, certainly plausible in a high volatility environment. We might also head back up to retest 10,000.
Monday could be really, really good for short-term traders.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2006
Posts: 291
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The bigs sold heavily into the market on Friday. Be sure you pick you positions properly. (sorry for the alliteration).
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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I too think we're due a bounce ... but I would think that it would hold below the 10 ema/daily ... which I'm guessing will be a bit below 9500 tomorrow ...
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Registered User
Joined: 8/13/2007
Posts: 1
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There has been some discussion of Hedge funds still needing to sell to meet margin calls due Monday.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/16/2006
Posts: 2,214
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Again, 8,900 is a crucial level of resistance (200/5) for the dj-3,0 if it breaks above that decisively, then it could go to 10,555 (200/60) but I seriously doubt it, because of what happend late Friday (+290 , then died to -128) and the VIX need to break UNDER 61.37 (233/5) in order for me to think going long! Sig
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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I agree with Sig. DJ-30 is hanging in at about 8900 (10:25 CDT)
Here is my take on eaistance and support. The levels are subject to some eyeall placement but are good to whi a small rannge of error.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Well ....
We're at 9042 and still climbing ...
What constitutes a "decisivie break" of 8900 ?
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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My estimate is a close above 9200.
This may signal the beginning of a bounce to 9838 or 10779.
I calculate the variability as the square root of the level, eg. SQR(9102) = 94.9. Then the expected rahge is twice the variability - 2*94.9 = 190. Then the estimated level for the begining of the bounce is 9012+190 = 9202.
Only my opinion.
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Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
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Wow ... that's some pretty fancy numbers work there ....
I'm just not that smart ....
I'll just stick with thinking that it'll hold below the 10 ema/daily ... without any variability ... astrology ... or numerology ...
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Registered User
Joined: 9/22/2005
Posts: 849
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A magic wand and some chicken entrails help with the divination . 
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Registered User
Joined: 6/29/2008
Posts: 30
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Hi;
Just heard on CNN up 992 points. We just got to fall tommorrow.
Wisea1662
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Registered User
Joined: 12/6/2004
Posts: 48
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Original poster here to collect my applause and kudos for calling this rally.
[crickets]
Um, well, that's OK. It's not like my self-esteem depends on Internet message boards
hope you made coin today, i did !
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