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Registered User
Joined: 4/12/2005
Posts: 6
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Hello, as you can see this is my first post but I have been lurking here for quite some time.
I have been paper trading Sir 9 Day's method since May 1 with little to no success. Out of 185 trades, 93 are positive with 92 negative. The positive trades usually trigger on day 10 with little gain (barely covering commisions) and the negative trades go to day 19 with large losses. On a mythical $25K account, I have lost $2654, slightly over 10%.
I've used S&P 500 stocks and also some lower priced stocks ($10-$30) with no concernable difference in results.
I have also modified Sir 9 Day's method with Sir Welcome Back's (Worden report 4/16) suggestions, again to no avail. All but the stop loss obviously.
These are not the typical results Sir 9 Day posted. Is it just the condition of the current market? Has anyone else been trying this method? Any input would be appreciated.
Thanks,
owilson05
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/12/2005
Posts: 6
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Thanks diceman...I'm not sure how many times I've read all those posts but it's been a lot. Was there anything in particular in them that you think I am missing?
Regards,
owilson05
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138
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owilson05,
You may send an email to Sir 9 Day's attention at support@worden.com to get further clarification from the author. These emails are forwarded and you should receive a response (at least from us). All e-mail communication sent to support@worden.com during business hours (Monday through Friday 9AM-11PM and Saturday and Sunday 9AM-3PM ET) should be answered within 20 minutes of arrival.
After Mr. Worden publishes an article, many times other customers have questions that can only be answered by the author of the article. We do not give out anyone’s email address or other personal information, rather, we will just forward their email on to the appropriate person. The individual may or may not choose to respond directly to you.
-Bruce
Personal Criteria Formulas
TC2000 Support Articles
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Registered User
Joined: 4/12/2005
Posts: 6
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Bruce,
Thanks, obviously I posted with the hope that Sir 9 Day would see it. I'll send the email.
Regards,
owilson05
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Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138
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You're welcome. Your hope is understandable. Sir 9 Day responded in the forums previously. I couldn't say if Sir 9 Day frequents the forums on a regular basis however.
-Bruce
Personal Criteria Formulas
TC2000 Support Articles
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 35
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QUOTE (owilson05) Hello, as you can see this is my first post but I have been lurking here for quite some time.
I have been paper trading Sir 9 Day's method since May 1 with little to no success. Out of 185 trades, 93 are positive with 92 negative. The positive trades usually trigger on day 10 with little gain (barely covering commisions) and the negative trades go to day 19 with large losses. On a mythical $25K account, I have lost $2654, slightly over 10%.
I've used S&P 500 stocks and also some lower priced stocks ($10-$30) with no concernable difference in results.
I have also modified Sir 9 Day's method with Sir Welcome Back's (Worden report 4/16) suggestions, again to no avail. All but the stop loss obviously.
These are not the typical results Sir 9 Day posted. Is it just the condition of the current market? Has anyone else been trying this method? Any input would be appreciated.
Thanks,
owilson05
Orville, ,
I received your email via Worden. In that email you gave me two trades that you did. Both were handled properly by you. Also in that email you said that you had lost 10% in paper trading from May 1st. to July 11th. and had allocated 1.1% to each trade. However, you then went on to say that " I am allocating 1.1% to each trade which is $ 275 and with margin =$ 550.
If you used margin, you didn't allocate 1.1% to each trade and your loss would have been 5% if you had not used margin, not 10% as you stated. Furthermore, the S&P was off almost 14% in the same period.
As I said in the first forum set up, there will be drawdowns and this works only over a long period of time. A long period of time is not a little more than two months when the maret happened to be down substantially. This is not a miracle trading system. It is based on probability and only works on hundreds, if not thousands of trades.
Best,
Sam
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Registered User
Joined: 4/12/2005
Posts: 6
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Sam,
Thank you for posting a response and for looking at the two trades I gave as examples. It is reassuring to know I did some of my trades correctly with regards to your system. I have since gone back and re-checked many of my trades and found they didin't meet the criteria at all. Somehow I had been using a daily chart and other times I was correctly using a 9 day chart. That explains a lot right there.
As far as the margin matter, I haven't even considered that, so thanks for explaining it better. A 5% loss against the 14% drop in the S&P doesn't sound so bad after all.
Again Sam, thank you for your original note to Worden and for responding to my email/ post. I will continue to paper trade your method with renewed confidence in it. I will also try not to be so short sighted and be in it for the long haul.
Best regards,
Orville
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