Registered User
Joined: 3/16/2006
Posts: 2,214
|
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 11/1/2005
Posts: 240
|
Your right , I'm really upset, I wanted to be surprised. :)s
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
little easier to see the charts when there laid out like this. i also like to chart the etf's because they show true opening prices. looks like a possible head & shoulders bottom on the daily that coinsides with your upside target. however the volume looks light and we have have a shooting star friday, so like you say, breakout failure, and pullback first may be in the cards.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 9/25/2007
Posts: 1,506
|
I don't know anything about the Elliot Wave stuff ...
But it looks interesting ....
Reading some stuff from the first of the month ... said that we were in a "B" wave ...
And that it should complete on or before April 18th ...
So ... if there's anybody that understands this stuff enough to answer ...
Is a "C" wave going to be bullish or bearish ?
How do they put a time frame (date) on the completion of these waves ?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
The waves lettered A and C represents the minor down-waves in a major bear move, while B represents the one up-wave in a bear wave.
time frame? don't think there is one. and you can have waves within waves. thats as far as i go.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
Posts: 415
|
The market may indeed be overbought on a short term basis, however I would think that 12750 is as low as it may get. That would be the resistance levels in Feb, Mar and Apr rally attempts.
funnymony---A shooting star has a very low reliable probability.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
a shooting star is simply a single candlestick in a series of a reversal pattern. it probably the least of the markets worries. but it'll be intertesting to see if the "options expiration ramp-up" holds.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
|
SignalTap, I don't know why you think you can predict the direction of the market by looking at
charts.
I think it's pretty bold of you to try to tell us what the markets will do when we are in the midst
of earnings season.
The earnings reports of individual bellweather companies will determine the direction of the
stock market near term -- No chart is going to enable you to predict market direction in this
situation.
If you happen to be right with your latest prediction, it won't be because the charts told you so.
mp
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
hmmmm, maybe charts can predict the future. dow -115.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
|
Funnymony,
You should re-read my post.
Todays headlines go something like this:
"Stocks in U S. Fall on Earnings. Texas Instruments, United Health Retreat.."
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
do you think maybe they word the headline to suit the days market action.
........and macdonalds, at&t, and dupont exceeded estimates.
the price of oil, and technical factors overhead resistance, the low volume rally, and the market being oversold, are probably greater reasons behind todays market decline.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
|
Getting close to 12675.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/5/2006
Posts: 1,148
|
overbought rather.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
|
QUOTE (funnymony) do you think maybe they word the headline to suit the days market action.
........and macdonalds, at&t, and dupont exceeded estimates.
the price of oil, and technical factors overhead resistance, the low volume rally, and the market being oversold, are probably greater reasons behind todays market decline.
I don't disagree that other factors contribute to the downturn today. But, since it's earnings
season, I'm just showcasing the most obvious one that can affect the market from day to day.
When did the earnings news come out on Macdonalds, att and dupont?
If it came out in the afternoon period, was it not too late to set the overall tone of the market today?
I think earnings for Texas Instruments and United Health came out early and so the headline about
this probably set the tone for the market along with other factors, as you said, like continue oil price
increases, etc.
Point is, the chart is only telling what happened -- this is emphatically true where trying to predict the
overall market is concerned. But, when evaluating individual stocks, you do have some leway.
I still think there is a chance the market will move sideways to up. But, each day to come will tell its own
story and the chart will tell us what happened today. But, it won't tell us what will happen tomorrow. Only
tomorrows news can do that.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/16/2006
Posts: 2,214
|
just came back from a family vacation, and the DJ-30 low yesterday (4/22) was 12,656 you can see my chart above that the 21 EMA / 60 min chart = 12,675 so that short term bottom was pretty close (off by 19 points!)
that was a good SPY puts play short term! darn, I missed it ( no laptop, but thats ok, it was a nice vacation!)
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/16/2006
Posts: 2,214
|
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 11/1/2005
Posts: 240
|
He seems to have good judgement of the charts?
QUOTE (memorableproducts) SignalTap, I don't know why you think you can predict the direction of the market by looking at
charts.
I think it's pretty bold of you to try to tell us what the markets will do when we are in the midst
of earnings season.
The earnings reports of individual bellweather companies will determine the direction of the
stock market near term -- No chart is going to enable you to predict market direction in this
situation.
If you happen to be right with your latest prediction, it won't be because the charts told you so.
mp
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 426
|
Maybe mp never learned how to read charts!
QUOTE (memorableproducts) SignalTap, I don't know why you think you can predict the direction of the market by looking at
charts.
I think it's pretty bold of you to try to tell us what the markets will do when we are in the midst
of earnings season.
The earnings reports of individual bellweather companies will determine the direction of the
stock market near term -- No chart is going to enable you to predict market direction in this
situation.
If you happen to be right with your latest prediction, it won't be because the charts told you so.
mp
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
there is a fine line between predicting and anticipating. The weekly chart above looks a bit like a bear flag. The daily has us right near resistance and everyone believes a bear market to be fully in effect. It's not unreasonalbe to asume thee will be some testing of lower ranges of recent price activity fairly soon
SignalTap seems to have been fairly accurate in the past.
I do think we may be near the end of the down trend for now...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/13/2005
Posts: 368
|
For those that subscribe to the cyber nine forecasts, his crystal ball predicts the market will move up until 4/26 and then resume a down trend until 5/3. What I have found is that his dates arent exact but they are plus or minus 1 day. I start watching for major reversals around those dates....
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
Warning! Worlds are colliding!
Warning! Worlds are colliding!
signaltap uses charts and indicators!
(fib moving averages and others)
--------------------------------------------------------------
So if we are so inclined. What do we mock?
The "CHARTS" of the "INDICATORS"?
hmmmmmmmmm?
Worlds are colliding!
Thanks
diceman
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
MP, VSA is a form of predicting future price movement by interpreting past actions. Your statement - "SignalTap, I don't know why you think you can predict the direction of the market by looking at charts". I did not know that you felt this way..
Technical analysis is like reading a message that contains information of details for a planed course of action by a group if people in the know. What about support and resistance levels amd trend lines. (IMO) these are proven strategies used in the analysis or technical analysis from which to build a proper course of action.
In my charts you will see that (IMO) signaltaps analysis is a little to involved. his predictions are staight out of technical analysis 101. The first chart is of the S&P-500. On the day of his prediction all the major indexes (including the DJ-30) was bouncing off resistance, so a pullback was no revelation. And in my second chart you will see that his predicted retreat for the DJ-30 is simply down to a support level, again not rocket science.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
|
QUOTE (Apsll)
Technical analysis is like reading a message that contains information of details for a planed course of action by a group if people in the know. What about support and resistance levels amd trend lines. (IMO) these are proven strategies used in the analysis or technical analysis from which to build a proper course of action.
Apsll, this is true. But, my point is you can't treat market charts the way you would individual stock charts.
Case in point, Bigblock's and many, many others predictions that just a few weeks ago the market
was going to take a dive while I was asking the question "Why Do People Keep Saying We're In A Bear Market?" (Remember that thread?)
So everyonelse back then were reading the market charts and where did that get them? When
Bigblock's prediction failed to come true, I think this is when he lost face and left (I know you want
to take credit for his finally leaving but really I think he would have still been here nagging at you
if he had been right about the market's direction).
It's is true that for individual stocks, someone always knows something in advance that you may be
able to pick up in a chart but the market charts are an aggregate of securities each of which have
their own unique set of circumstances that when taken as a whole in one chart is impossible to tell you
anything about what the market is going to do. This is especially true during earnings season.
The market chart , IMO, during earnings season is at its highest unpredictability because the circumstances of individual stocks will determine the order of that day, magnified.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
|
Oh, and as funnymony point out, other factors such as those of an economic nature play a part in addition to the individual earnings report from day to day (to a lesser and sometimes greater extent during earnings season)
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
MP, I know that your knowledge is beyond my own so in the spirit of learning let me ask, if what you say is true, than first look at all the major Indexes on April 18th. It cannot be just coincidence that they all bounced off obvious resistance on the same day. Now look at the following chart, it shows a perfect invers head and shoulder pattern in the Nasdaq followed by the expected results of such a bullish pattern. If you are correct and you cannot apply technical analysis to the Indexes then you would not see patterns forming, nor support or resistance levels (that appear to be adhered to).
What you say does sound logical (that the index is really just a moving average of all the stocks in that index combined), but on occasion I have looked at the individual stocks in an index that has reached a support or resistance level and lo and behold most of the stocks there in have also.
We can disagree and still be friends. Are you going to be there today?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
|
Apsll, when you start talking about anything but a daily chart, I can't comment.
We will agree to disagree. Yes, I think I can make it this afternoon.
Later,
mp
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
OK, see you at 4pm but just to let you know I looked at ofer 600 stocks from the 18th and most of them were at a resistance level. Just somthing to think about...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 426
|
If an index is really just a moving average of all the stocks in that index combined then that is not any different than saying a stock is really just a moving average of all the individual traders in that stock combined. (IMO) TA works in the index the same as stocks.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/24/2006
Posts: 72
|
12.9k and on solid footing... looks like we'll be seeing 13500 before options expiration.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
|
QUOTE (Apsll) OK, see you at 4pm but just to let you know I looked at ofer 600 stocks from the 18th and most of them were at a resistance level. Just somthing to think about...
Wait a minute. Did you say the 18th of April?
This jogs my memory about the thread I posted on April 16th -- "Interesting Development".
Check it out.
I think that is when everything decided to reverse course.
So, if you are just spotting this on the 18th then this, IMO, is a hindsight reaction to the stop-gap
reversal to events on the 16th.
But, also, isn't what you and I are saying the opposite of the point that SignalTap is making
on this thread? I thought he was predicting a market drop for this week.
If so, is this not support for my arguement that you really can't predict direction in index charts?
Because signaltap seems to be saying one thing and you seem to be saying another.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 6/6/2005
Posts: 1,157
|
MP -- that's a pretty bold statement about index charts. If charts refelect the psychology of all participants in a stock then it's safe to assume that index charts reflect the psychology of all participants in all stocks of all participants in that particular index. Add to that the notion that stocks move 4 to 1 with the trend of the index, then I think it's safe to say that an index chart gives off the same information as the charts of individual charts. Just an opinion. I've been trading ETF charts for some time now utilizing technical analysis and they work just fine. I've been garnering direction from index charts just fine. And it's not earnings that move the markets, it's the perception of the report that moves the psychology that moves the markets. According to some people it might be ocean tides that move the markets, and if they can get that work good for them.
David John Hall
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Well he did call the pullback to 12,679 during this week and he got that right, but like I said that was an easy call EOD on the 18th because of the proximity to resistance. His call for further movement to the down side is off however. Just because he is unable to properly analize the index does not mean that no one else can. I have never agreed with his market analysis, but he does seem to know how to use options pretty well.
I must agree with Booker on this one, I think that you can use technical analysis on the Indexes. You can say that The DJ-30 used the highs of 2006 for support and bounced, I have lined up the recent bottom of most of the Indexes with previous support levels in their perspective histories. So maybe there is no Bear market and this was just one hell of a correction. A similar correction of this size happened in 2005 so who knows maybe we are still in a Bull market.
My style of trading is closer to that of Booker so if I take his side more often than not, please take no offense. I know you better on a personal level and thus we can maintain our friendship.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 426
|
One more thing I would like to say about TA. mp you don't have to agree with this. If you disagree then just iqnore it. When it comes to TA, I mainly use price action and volume and the timeframe, index, stocks, forex, or whatever makes no difference. I treat them all the same. They all taste like chicken. This might not be true of indicators, but (IMO) when it comes to price action and volume it is true.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/24/2006
Posts: 72
|
I think to be very fair, signaltap's gotten his fair share of correct (and incorrect) picks, and while I often times am... confused about his choice of timeframe, his week/month predictions are often spot on (that being the virtue of TA or what not, I do not mind... I'm still learning TA, and at least it's straightforward enough for me to understand).
I do believe that TA can be applied to markets, and while I do think fundamentals account for everything at the end of the day, I think TA expresses the nature of all the players involved and how they're seeing, perceiving elements of those fundamentals.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 11/1/2005
Posts: 240
|
Sounds good to me David, the psychology of the mkts, makes the markets turn. I never did get a grasp on the ocean stuff. I like the thought, Knowing where the stocks at in the trend compared to the index. some thing like that. knowing where the stock is short term or intermediate term, leading, lagging, or in a range?
QUOTE (davidjohnhall) MP -- that's a pretty bold statement about index charts. If charts refelect the psychology of all participants in a stock then it's safe to assume that index charts reflect the psychology of all participants in all stocks of all participants in that particular index. Add to that the notion that stocks move 4 to 1 with the trend of the index, then I think it's safe to say that an index chart gives off the same information as the charts of individual charts. Just an opinion. I've been trading ETF charts for some time now utilizing technical analysis and they work just fine. I've been garnering direction from index charts just fine. And it's not earnings that move the markets, it's the perception of the report that moves the psychology that moves the markets. According to some people it might be ocean tides that move the markets, and if they can get that work good for them.
David John Hall
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 426
|
David, I liked your statement about ocean tides. I have never heard it described quite like that. That got me to thinking that I do not ever remember hearing how you determine the market direction, you say you get it from the index charts, but could you please go into more detail. I’m sure that a lot of other people would be interested as well. I would appreciate hearing from a knight on how this is done.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
|
I'm envisioning a seesaw or balance scale.
I'm sitting on one end and all of the rest of you are sitting on the other.
Oh well, I'll go down with the ship because I'm sticking to my guns.
Later,
mp
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 426
|
So what you are trying to say in your Overbearing way is "Everyone is wrong and my way is the only way"
QUOTE (memorableproducts) I'm envisioning a seesaw or balance scale.
I'm sitting on one end and all of the rest of you are sitting on the other.
Oh well, I'll go down with the ship because I'm sticking to my guns.
Later,
mp
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
|
When we talk about prediction.
Don't we have to define what that is?
What timeframe are we predicting?
Doesn't the term "predict" imply it
is a probability?
(if I were certain I would give a
guarantee)
During bull markets there can be sell-offs.
During bear markets there can be rallies.
Does that make a "prediction " wrong?
--------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm not really sure what people are talking about
when they say indexes "work" or "don't work".
If we put a long term moving average on the SP-500.
We should certainly see that the 90's into 2000 was a
bullish period. 2000 to late 2002 was bearish. 2003
to late 2007 bullish.
I'm not sure that I would call it a prediction. It is simply a
measure.
Most technical analysis is like a speedometer on a car.
It tells you how fast you are going.
It doesn't tell you its raining outside.
It doesn't tell you that you will run out of gas.
I mean lets be honest here. Does anything really predict?
All we are ever dealing with are odds and probabilities
and what past history has shown.
Thanks
diceman
|
|
|
Guest-1 |