| Welcome Guest, please sign in to participate in a discussion. | Search | Active Topics | |
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
Just came across MER in my short watch list.. placed it there months ago but was focused on other things so once again a small fortune sneaks by on a day to day basis.
However at this point on the weekly view I'm attracted to the volume/price pattern here. I know that "V" bottoms are the most rare so I'd anticipate somethign else may form but it's right at support and That volume is reall looking impressive.
I guess it could go donw further but it's alread been hit for almost 50% I am begining to think that we need to be looking for a bottom in this and some other sectors fairly soon... maybee a year or so (possibly less?)
I've been getting allot fo realestate stuff come up lately also... and recently read an article suggesting that we may be seeing a bottom form there soon. Despite all the bad press and that the press will still be bad during the first waves up form a major colapse like that. Thinking of the Tech industry ... allot of TECHS were cruising out of the bottom of 2003 as I recall.. not all but enough that I noticed it in 2005. but there was verry little press on them as they snuck by. I think it will be similar with the financial industries. They got slapped hard but many will recover... I intend on being there when they do ..
this Bear market is a god send for me and it creating buying oportunities in the future and I get excited just thinking about it. I have allot of short opportunities but many don't look that impressive in terms of points left to gain. I know one thing.. I'll be more on my toes next time around and not so stuck to the idea of forcing long trdes, unless they are bounces.
I've also been wondering of late. Does it really matter what color volume is? because because volume is for transactions right? and transactions include a buy and a sell so during a flush as this has possibly been there are buyers for the sellers under panic. Perhaps it's important in consolidations and the such for trying to guage the direction fothe break...
I dunno just wondering.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 38
|
MER: Daily Candlestick seems to indicate a 'shooting star' pattern yesterday, along with many other charts. To some this would indicate weak price action & the start of a pullback.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
I'm not talking about the really short term.. it came up on a sell short scan of mine last night.. the thing is for a greater swing I'm wondering how much there is to gain in the short direction... a 1-3 day hold may work out ok....
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,181
|
Scott;
I suspect a first move down to about $50, then a swing up to around $62.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
It looks like the support was more around the $53.00 range as price bounced off the support level I have highlighted in my chart. The low of early January was tested in mid January and price stayed higher than that low (Booker might like this). There are some signs of accumulation and OBV is rising. this looks like more of a long candidate than a short. Scott I am curious what was the criteria that made you think short here?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
I put it on short nightly check list months ago and was cleaning the list the other day and noticed it. I often swat the same stocks back and forth.
Oh but as I stated above it came up on a short scan. The one outlined in "Trading systems" that i'm playing with. Still needs refining to cut down thenumber of hits.. it got over 250 yesterday. The methodology is simple and the trigger is basically any time price is in a down trend and rallies back to the zone between the 20 and 50... some time there about I look for a breakdown in a Fast period TSV and maybee momentum.. or volume confirmation.. the rest is all candles. Like I said I'm still working on it. ( I know your views on TSV with bolinger band but I choose to use them for now).
anyway it came up on the scan with the 250 some odd possible candidates. obviously it's not a "REAL" candidate. Pprefer a down trend be not as mature as this one.
my thinking:
|
|
|
Guest-1 |