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What is making the market confused? Superheros. Rate this Topic:
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BigBlock
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 12:29:16 AM
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(Removed by Moderator)

Please refrain from posting copywritten material from other sources here in the forums.
BigBlock
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 2:07:03 PM
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Can you explain to me why there is an issue with the copyright?
That material is freely available on the web, and I have given credit to his author.
So how did the posting affect you or could affect you.  I would like to know.

Why would be linking to the site hosting the article represent a copyright issue for you?  I have try in the past both way, and you still removed the link and the text.

If instead of a copyright issue it is a conflic to interest I also like to know.  It would be good to know either way so I know where I stand.

Thanks

funnymony
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 2:13:33 PM

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what was it? a link? to what?
realitycheck
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 2:24:42 PM
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Bigblock ...

I certainly can't explain anyone else's reasoning for things ...

But possibly I can clear up a point of law ... and fair use ...

Just because material is available without charge ... doesn't necessarily mean that it is free ... or that the author is giving up his rights ... or intends to gain no financial benefit from it ...

For instance ... let's say that I have a web page that posts something wonderful ... and I get millions of hits every day ...

You may not have to pay to see my something wonderful ... but I have adverstisers that advertise on my web page that pay me on a "per hit" basis ... to advertise on my page ...

So ... if you were to copy my work onto another page ... where neither I, nor my advertisers, would benefit ... or worse yet ... possibly a competing advertiser might benefit ... then you have effectively harmed my financial interests ...

For example ... Colin Twiggs publishes some really good info in his daily and weekly trading diaries ... right ?  And he does not charge for this information ... he does it to bolster his own service ...

He offers a chart service that competes directly with Worden Brothers ...

If every day ... you were to copy Colin's work over here ... then people might start coming here to read it ...

Worden Brothers would effectively be getting the benefit of Colin's hard work ... while effectively causing harm to Colin ...

Granted ... it seems harmless on the surface ... but we all know that this WHOLE world is about money ...

StockGuy
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 2:24:54 PM

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You cannot post copyrighted material without written permission from the entity that holds the copyright.  Look that up on the terms of service for the website you're copying from.

We do not allow posting of third party URLs on the forums.  

That's where you stand.
funnymony
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 2:39:41 PM

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third party url's? does that mean no links to news, editorials, graph?
BigBlock
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 2:42:10 PM
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I also tried in the post linking to it, and still the link was removed.  Why?  That certainly wouldn't take away the having to go to its original web site to see it.
Can I then post the ling to it?
Bruce_L
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 2:43:02 PM


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Posts: 65,138
funnymony,
You can post images of your own charts (preferably an image of TeleChart or Blocks). We will (with a few exceptions) normally try to delete links to third party news, editorials and graphs however.

BigBlock,
No, you cannot post external links.

-Bruce
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mikepass
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 2:51:05 PM
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Heres a link to the national copyright site with info on copyright. I am certain this is legal to post. As a photographer-aka copyright holder, I had to call a few clients in on copyright abuse, one client for a large sum of money. I mean former client If you post other persons work on your website you or your business can be infringing on somebody elses copyright. And if the work is registred, the fines are huge. Mikepass

mikepass
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 2:51:35 PM
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http://www.copyright.gov/title17/

forgot the link
funnymony
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 3:10:26 PM

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so i guess if we want to post a graph or news, its better paste the article, rather than link to it?
Bruce_L
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 3:13:16 PM


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funnymoney,
Please don't do either. You should only be posting your own original material.

-Bruce
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winfieldh
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 3:18:59 PM
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I hate to split hairs, but what is the policy for searchable terms that might lead to an article in question?
Bruce_L
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 4:21:00 PM


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Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138
winfieldh,
The answer to your hairsplitting question is unfortunately somewhat hairsplitting as well. I'll start with the unambiguous part.

Posting searchable terms that are keywords or adwords that will steer somebody to a site you own or one of our competitors is prohibited.

Using search terms to point somebody to something specific that we would not allow you to link to is not allowed either. Violating the spirit of the rule is pretty much the same as violating the rule itself.

That said, you are probably fine if you are just providing a search term to help somebody find more information on a general topic.

-Bruce
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funnymony
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 9:01:05 PM

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so were suppose to discuss stocks and the market in this section, but were not allowed to use any news, historical data, graphs, or any information from another website. and were not allowed reference any information we post. every message board on the web allows it. why doesn't this one?
StockGuy
Posted : Thursday, January 24, 2008 10:04:06 PM

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Joined: 9/30/2004
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The posting of copyrighted material without permission is not allowed because it is against the law.  Read the terms of service on any website and you'll find that it most likely prohibits the reuse of the material in electronic form with limited allowances for printing for personal use or limited distribution. 

BigBlock
Posted : Friday, January 25, 2008 12:09:25 AM
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I really don't understand how an link would inflict any harm on any permission or limitations.  After all web sites compite for links and clicks.
I understand I comflict of interest that Wordens may have as far as not wanting to expose their clients to other products, but I also think that is a fear that may revolve on itself.  If that is the case then it should be plainly stated in the open.
But really linking to a news article is permitted.  I can give you examples that are actual, and real.  Per example you call Briefing. com an ask them the same questions that pretty much are being ask here, which I did.  Their response is that you can link as much as you want to their articles and available to the public features, but you should not copy and paste without requesting some permission, and always communicating the author an source.
So I am not sure why the linkage is a problem here, except for the conflict of interest.
Just my thoughts.
Ralph Koozer
Posted : Friday, January 25, 2008 1:36:18 AM

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The people who live where the United States used to be have been living by a set of false paradygms.  

One is that the USA can borrow itself into permenant prosperity and foist fraud filled "securitized" debt on the rest of the world forever.  

One is that house prices would always go up forever everywhere  even though the baby boomers are done trading up to more expensive homes.  

One is that they will continue to accept the gas guzzler oversized $UV from Detroit to race down all the freeways on $3.00 per gallon gasoline, and then spend themselves silly at Christmas.

One is that they had a right to large balance low interest loans whether or not they could hope to pay them back.

One is that they could mine the equity out of their homes with ever increasing mortgages forever to fund living above their means.

One is that they think it's the FED's job to protect them from the consequences of their foolish borrowing beyond their means.

One is that they think service jobs can replace fundamental industries as the basis of an economy.

The confusion is in the markets is coming from the very natural and overdue collapse of many of these false paradygms.
BigBlock
Posted : Friday, January 25, 2008 1:57:31 PM
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Nice Ralph,  I will try to find that article again and put it here in my own words I think you most definatelly would enjoy it.
Keep up the good work.
thekubiaks
Posted : Friday, January 25, 2008 6:09:58 PM
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Posts: 368
QUOTE (Ralph Koozer)
The people who live where the United States used to be have been living by a set of false paradygms.  



One is that the USA can borrow itself into permenant prosperity and foist fraud filled "securitized" debt on the rest of the world forever.  



One is that house prices would always go up forever everywhere  even though the baby boomers are done trading up to more expensive homes.  



One is that they will continue to accept the gas guzzler oversized $UV from Detroit to race down all the freeways on $3.00 per gallon gasoline, and then spend themselves silly at Christmas.



One is that they had a right to large balance low interest loans whether or not they could hope to pay them back.



One is that they could mine the equity out of their homes with ever increasing mortgages forever to fund living above their means.



One is that they think it's the FED's job to protect them from the consequences of their foolish borrowing beyond their means.



One is that they think service jobs can replace fundamental industries as the basis of an economy.



The confusion is in the markets is coming from the very natural and overdue collapse of many of these false paradygms.


I completely agree, we (Americans) had a great concept for a country.  I can't put my finger on the exact event or moment when we started going down the shtter but the day of reckoning is near.   I think you said it perfectly.  Goofball politicians with no business sense and a clueless Fed isn't helping things...
survivor
Posted : Friday, January 25, 2008 8:26:32 PM

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Who is John Gault?       
funnymony
Posted : Friday, January 25, 2008 8:39:08 PM

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QUOTE (thekubiaks)




 I can't put my finger on the exact event or moment when we started going down the shtter
[/QUOTE]


her's a hint: franklin deleno roosevelt
diceman
Posted : Friday, January 25, 2008 10:14:12 PM
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"a hint: franklin deleno roosevelt"
-----------------------------------------
 
Excellent point funntmony.
 
 
I said something like this in a previous post.
 
Its interesting. Gas prices are supposed to kill me ???
 
Christmas shopping is supposed to kill me ????
 
but there seems to be no level of taxation that will ever
hurt me.
 
I wonder how much inflation we've had from trial lawyers???
 
 
Thanks
diceman
 
tobydad
Posted : Friday, January 25, 2008 10:50:18 PM

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"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: 'From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.'"

Lord Woodhouselee, Alexander Fraser Tytler

It would be helpful for us to remember we were formed as a democratic republic; not a pure democracy (pronounced "mobocracy"). 
tobydad
Posted : Friday, January 25, 2008 10:53:37 PM

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Even better....
"We have confused liberty with license - and we are paying the awful price."
 Billy Graham
BigBlock
Posted : Saturday, January 26, 2008 12:20:52 AM
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The Feds stepped on the scene again on Tuesday to flex its mucles by cutting rates in an effort to calm down the panic in the financial markets.  Further more they stepped off the stage by promising to return very soon to cut even further.

Bystanders were left more confused than ever about financial chief Bernake, and even worried that as far as superheros go, THIS FED LEADING THE CIRCUS LOOK VERY CONFUSED AND WEAK.

Just to start lets say that the Fed doesn't seem to be a sawy superhero.  For months, it has misjudged the seriousness of the financial market freeze-up and the muscle that it would take to combat it, economists said. 

Lets recall that initially the fed officials thought that there was no need for any agressive action with the federal funds rate, and they seem convinced that just a half point cut in Sept, followed by a small cut in Oct and Dec was going to do the trick to fight the economic weakness.

They told us that the risks were balanced and that there was no need to do anything else.

Behind the Curve

"Yeap they were much more behind than a crawling turtle in a greyhound race.  Now in a rush they are trying to catch up.  But - sorry, just a little to late.  Time past, and damage done  will be difficult to readjust.
Lets say that some folks in Financial arenas look simply bewildered by credit market developments.

In October on of the fed clowns dissented to hold rates steady.  In December another clown disented in favor of more aggresive easing.  Please, please is there any coordination in this Circus.
The minutes of the fed's discount deliberations show a straight 3 way split, with some district banks wanting no cut, others a 25 point move, and some a 50 point cut.  Please!!

Add to that the  very tough challenge, not seem since the post - World War II period, of sharply declining home values and volitile equity markets.

Well the clowns can get it together so investors proceeded to take valuations down in a big way.

Limited power of rate cuts

Another worry  for concern is the fact the interest rates cuts may not be the medicine that the economy needs at this time.  In fact, rate cuts have been offset by tightening lending standards as banks are starting to learn their lesson.
As a result the housing markets continues to get weaker.  Home prices lower, home invertories higher, and consequently securities tied to the morgage market have caused credit markets to just start to shut down.  Does Ambac ring any bells??

A rate cut will not take off the market per example 19,000 homes in the small community of Fort Myers, Florida, and it will not eliminate CDOs with a huge holes in their evaluations.  Now, will it??

Reacting Markets

Lastly and final reason to alarm that the clowns are getting out of control appears to be that the clowns leaded by the Chief clown himself (Bernanke) have gone on to cut rates to extinguish the propagating wave ir selling in the global financial markets.  And most alarming is the fact that they did it without notice.  Sneaky clowns can be very annoying.

So a reputation is being build by the clown himself that help is just a call away from the markes.  Not good.
I wonder why the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England didn't even mute on the tumbling markets.
Be certain that the selling has just return within a couple of days, which suggest a vote of no confidence in the clowns.  Who can blame the markets for not wanting to go to the circus.  It just isn't a good show anymore.

In any case rate cuts will take months to work any magic on this economy.  It is not fast magic, and the markets are going to see economic weakness for months to come.  It is going to put some stress on it.

Some folks seem to think that the Fed would be a better superhero if Bernanke were not hamstrung by other more hawkesh members, specially some of the fed bank presidents.
but I don't buy it.  The presidents may talk tough in speeches, but in times of crisis they defer to the head clown (Bernanke).  Hence the slowness of the Fed.

By the way, core consumer prices rose 2.4% in 2007, and there isn't a darn thing that the fed action is going to move inflation lower.  And although it may be easy for Wallstreet to say that inflation woes will go away, for the feds it will be a different story.

Just as Superman was worried about kryptonite, Bernanke appears to be worried about inflation. Deep down, no Fed superhero wants to be blamed for the re-emergence of inflation
Apsll
Posted : Saturday, January 26, 2008 7:27:35 AM

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Keep in mind as we all know already that I am no Economist. So my opinion is based purly on my very limitted experience and memories.

When I was a teenager Jimmie Carter was in office right after the Nixon scandle and the short-lived Gerald Ford era. I remember that Inflation was out of control and our economy was somthing to really worry about. It was not long after that Ronald Reagan rode up on his pale horse and saved the day or better put he saved the Decade and the economy. The world loved us and the middle class was happy. Then this guy Bush comes along and gets us all tangled up in the wid-east (and we still are today). Luckly a fine man in my opinion comes along, I think his name was Bill Clinton, right around the time that the computer age is being born, and once again are economy is great and the middle class is happy. Now we have the spon of bush charging us through the middle east again and the only happy people are the rich industrial machine because they are getting great tax cutts and cheap labor because Bush really loves this whole illegal imigration thing and has no intention of fixing it on his watch.

Someone will soon come and make the boo-boo- allright again they always do. People have been complaining about the government since before the ink was dry on the Constitution. The USA is not going to go to hell in a hand-basket. We are the inventors of every major technilogical advance that the whole world uses every day, and yet they still hate us. Amarica will be just fine and just like the stock market goes up and down so too will our economy and our general out look on politics and the government. Just relax, as Tom Hanks said when he escaped from that island an he told his friend "the sun will rise".

Thats it from here. the eternal optomist..

Apsll.
tobydad
Posted : Saturday, January 26, 2008 8:41:43 AM

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I am not a doom-and-gloomer (as one might conclude after reading this), I am a realist.  And a Christian.  And am convinced that we cannot sow one thing and reap another.  

Do I believe the sky is falling? No.  Do I believe that we choose what road to be on and that every road leads somewhere?  Yes.  To think that everything will always work itself out and that we were given the vast resources of this nation to lavish upon our own selfish desires is first, the height of naivete, and second, pure foolishness.  One of the reasons the world hates us is because they know they should respect us but we give them only reasons for contempt.  

Someone will say to this, "Oh, they have contempt for us after we have given so much?"  My answer is, Yes.  Is it fair?  Is it right?  It doesn't matter.  It is Truth.  Generosity does not engender respect; strength of moral will and character does.  And we have, for the greater part, lost, nay, abandoned both. 

There was another nation that thought they could abandon their moral foundation and reap no consequence.  And from that nation came one of the greatest minds of recent centuries.  Sadly, much of his brilliance was forged by hardship unlike any most of us have ever experienced.  Solzhenitsyn said,

"It is not because the truth is too difficult to see that we make mistakes... we make mistakes because the easiest and most comfortable course for us is to seek insight where it accords with our emotions - especially selfish ones.”

Rome before Nero, pre-Revolution Russia, pre-Nazi Germany, pre-1929 America; if we could speak to the poeple from these nations and eras, we might hear that they knew there were problems but never imagined their circumstances could get too bad.  Well, imagine. 

Now, I do not say to Panic. Continue to invest, continue to plan your futures, continue to have a "...the sun will rise..." attitude.  Just remember Tom Hanks' survivor character said "the sun will rise" more out of strength of character hammered out by extreme hardship than the fact that his life went along with no bumps in the road.  It just doesn't hurt to take a long hard look at where we are and what might be the consdequences. 

I'd love for life to go on as it has for my 51 years.  But I want good things for my children and their children too. I'm not so sure that assuming everything will work out is my best bet.  As a nation, it's long past time to "look well to our ways".  

Proud to be an optimistic American,
tobydad
BigBlock
Posted : Saturday, January 26, 2008 5:21:38 PM
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Folks noone is claiming here that the US is going to hell or anything like that.
Yes I am a realist, and I speak just as far as I can see.
All that was said here is that there is more correction coming for this economy, and that neither the administration or the policy are doing enough to avoid that. In fact it is probably unstoppable.    
They will continue to lie, and I will continue to bring up every lie I see fit. 

From other eras from which the US recover there were some differences that can be resume in Suprime, and Housing.  Those 2 are making the american real poor as the biggest asset of any average american is their home,  and homes are losing value at never seen pace.  
Will this stop? yes
When? I don't know
Can the administration fix it? I don't thik this one would be an easy one to fix.  It is going to cost a lot of grief until it works itselt out.

For how long and how bad this correction will be I am not sure.  But I know there is a lot to correct.
Will the new administration help some?  I don't know yet.
Will I be trading the markets with a short bias?  Sure.
Will I pound on stocks from beat up sectors? Sure
Will I trade QID's or some other Pro Ultra against the grade?  Sure

I know the clowns have lost their ability to make folks smile, and while folks cry I will try to make up the best of it.  You can play their game or you can wait for a different game (uptrending markets).  That is up to you.  All I can say is that it is best to play the game all the time.  Just let the liers tell you which on you nd to play.

Just a realist. 

survivor
Posted : Saturday, January 26, 2008 10:05:58 PM

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I sense a great deal of angst in many of the responses on this and other threads.  Guess it's the sign of the times.  Clearly, most of you were not in college in the 60's otherwise you would have picked up on my question "Who is John Gault?"  You might do well to read  some of Ayn Rand's books, namely Atlas Shrugged, The Fountainhead etc.  You'll gain a better perspective of political realities.  There are a lot of people like myself who were totally immersed in the events of the 60's, experienced first hand campus anti-war riots, the civil rights marches, Viet Nam and returned home to a counry torn apart by political scandal and corruption.  That horror was soon followed by more political incompetence resulting in high interest rates and long gas lines.  And people are complaining today?  Hmmmm.........

Our country has been through some hard times in the past and we will go through some hard times in the future.  We may well be at the beginning of one of those hard times eras now.  Only time will tell.  

How do we prepare and navigate what lies ahead?  Look at our charts and the charts will tell us what is happening.  Clearly, the most significant point to recognize now is the violation of the long term bull market trend line stretching back to 1982.  Yea guys, the Reagen Bull Market trend line has been breached.  We may be at the end of an era, and the beginning of a "brave new world".  The charts are our guides into this unknown world.  

There is another point that I want to raise here.  As we read our charts and prepare for this unknown future, it would be far more productive if we worked together in a collaborative team effort rather than making personal attacks on each other.  There is a world of difference between attacking an individual vs disagreeing with the position of an individual.  If I disagree with someones position on a matter, it is imperative that I offer an alternative solution or interpretation.  To not do so, would be intellectually dishonest.  

I have learned a great deal from everyone contributing to these threads and I want to thank you for your time, thoughts, and ideas.  May we all go forward in a positive, collaborative effort so that we may successfully navigate the turbulent waters that may lie ahead.

Live Long and Prosper,
survivor


ward1
Posted : Sunday, January 27, 2008 2:05:24 AM
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Posts: 36
Alan Greenspan wrote in his recent memoir, “The Age of Turbulence: Adventure in a New World.
Quote: “I was aware that the loosening of mortgage terms for subprime borrows increased financial RISK, but I believe then, as I do now, that the benefits of broadened home ownership are worth the RISK
Edward Gramlich, a Federal Reserve Governor warned Mr. Greenspan seven years ago that the fast growing breed of new lenders was luring many people into RISKY mortgages they couldn’t afford. He was rebuffed by Alan Greenspan.
The US went through the biggest home building boom in its history from the mid 90’s to 2005 encourage by low interest tactics.
Many people were lured into these Risky new home loans and should never have been qualified.
A sub-prime lender says to home applicant “And you have been working at McDonald’s for one whole year and you wife works part time at K-mart. That’s great, I don’t see you as a RISK at all and you shouldn’t have any problem qualifying for a $250,000 dollar loan. Mr. Greenspan wants everyone to own a new home.
I wonder if Mr. Greenspan did Risk/Reward analysis. (For starters a 40 billion financial bailout, 150 million stimulus package, more than 15% of the all the workforce being affected, and a recession to boot)
Yes, homes are bargain and affordable with lower interest rates, but fewer qualified buyers.
The building industry and mortgage system had their field day for the last 10 years and now they will have to pay. There is a massive inventory of homes increasing with foreclosures, baby boomer retiring and moving into retirement communities and rest homes.
I think this will take several years to correct and turn around.
I am a realist also, but that will not change things that are out of our control.
Thanks,
Ward1
diceman
Posted : Sunday, January 27, 2008 2:24:00 AM
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Posts: 6,049
Thank you survivor for raising the bar.
 
You beat me to the punch I was going to raise
some of the same points.
 
Its a shame that contempt and condescension of your
neighbor passes as analysis today.
 
Its a shame copy and paste from websites substitutes
for thinking.
 
Lets hope we return to a time when people will use
the computer nature gave them for thinking.
(not the one that connects them to this site)
 
 
Its funny how I often hear: "We must worry how the
world views us".
 
Maybe we should start looking in the mirror and looking
at how we view us.
 
 
Thanks
diceman
 
BigBlock
Posted : Sunday, January 27, 2008 12:46:53 PM
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Posts: 2,126
Maybe we should start looking in the mirror and looking
at how we view us.
 
 
Thanks
diceman


Do is like telling a blind person to tell you which color they like best.
A real ugly person gets up every morning and look at him / herself in the mirror.  That person never sees what you and I would see.
Oneself is not the most appropiate to judge onself.
The world is watching.
 
ward1
Posted : Sunday, January 27, 2008 4:07:14 PM
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Posts: 36
Diceman,
I am not sure if you were insinuating my post as the neighbor to Survivor as a cut and paste application. Actually nothing in my post was cut and paste. Yes, the quote was taken from an article in The Journal on Dec.23, 2007. I clip this article for a reference and thought it would be informative as to IMO the root of the sub-prime problem.
A RISK of this magnitude should not be in the hands of one individual especially when several of his colleagues reminded him of the RISKS involved. This is national nightmare that will affect the US economy and mainly the building industry for years to come and IMO will throw us into a major downward spiral for several years.
RISK 1 – Allowing a new breed of sub-prime lenders to lure in home buyers that should not have been qualified for a home loan. “The Financial Mess”
RISK 2 - Not allowing homeownership to develop on its own time frame without the accelerated effort induced by the Federal Reserve. There is a natural influx of homeowners that move into the new home market every year. For every new home that is built beyond the natural influx of home buyers, a vacated home, condo, or apartment would be place into home inventories and remain up for sale. This is a very simple RISK formula. “More Supply and Less Demand = A Suppressed Building Industry and a Decrease in Home Values”
RISK 3 – Not realizing the magnitude of the consequences if RISK 1 and RISK 2 fails. The housing industry employs 15% of the work force indirectly.
From the natural resources (lumber, copper, aluminum, iron, oil bi-products, etc.), drywall, concrete, plumbing, wiring, appliances, cabinets, paints, kitchen and bath fixtures, brick, sidings, roofing, counter tops, flooring & tile, lighting, fireplaces, furniture, carpet, insulations, windows and doors, heating and cooling, security systems, architectural design, well drillers, stairways and railings, sprinkler systems, landscaping and more.
Also the labor force that it takes to administrate and installed these products.
This does not factor in the domino effect it has on the financial and real estate market. It also affects the truck sales, transportation of all these products, heavy equipment and tools, and other. “The Probable Recession”
RISK 4 – Not calculating that homeownership will decline as baby boomers age. “The Future Problem”
RISK 5 - ????
REWARD – Greed for more revenues over time in some type of a tax.
I have owned a building supply center for over 35 years with peak sales of over 20 million. Currently our sales are half of that. In my home town the building permits are off over 80% and falling. The worst is yet to come and yes I am frustrated with this sub-prime mess. In my community over the last year I have seen many well established building supply businesses fail and now are out of business.
I retire about a year and half ago and act as a consultant to my two sons who now run a very successful business in our community. In the year 2000 I made a decision to add an installed services department foreseeing the development of a housing bubble. When new home sales are down, remodeling is up. Most of the businesses that have failed were totally depended on new home construction.
I do believe the real estate industry will eventually move forward with lower interest rates and a massive inventory of homes for sale. But I think it will take several years for the building industry rebound.
I have always had an interest in the stock market and my retirement has allowed me the freedom to venture and explore the market. I am still in the learning process and have put many hours in viewing these forums and the Worden archives.
I want to thank you and the many other contributors to this forum. Your generous input has helped me tremendously.
Thank You,
Ward1
survivor
Posted : Sunday, January 27, 2008 5:52:08 PM

Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
Ward1 - I see first hand what you are describing.  Here in South FL (both SE and especially SW FL) have had significant economic downturns because of this housing bubble.  Many, many people have been dis-located and many more just can not sell their homes.  We saw this coming last Spring......while the FED and our government officials kept on feeding us Larry Kudlow's story that we are in a "goldilocks" economy.  Are they blind?   Maybe it's that they're so shielded from the real world in DC that the nation will continue to slow while they all campaign to retain their jobs/power at the expense of the American people.   Remember,  Rome burned while Nero played on his fiddle.

Also, the new economic package is rather like Marie Antoinett saying to the starving French people "let them eat cake".

Best of luck to you.
survivor
BigBlock
Posted : Sunday, January 27, 2008 7:24:42 PM
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
Ward I couldn't agree with you more.  I have been praying and saying the same thing here for God knows how long.
Still, there a few who claim themselve "patriots, bulls, optimists, or whatever", that are as blind as the idiots down in DC.

Take care.
diceman
Posted : Sunday, January 27, 2008 9:47:26 PM
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
Ward1, survivor, BigBlock
 
 
Ward1 I was not referring to your post. I had an old incident in mind involving rmr.
 
I am not exactly sure how to respond to you guys because
what you say does not make sense to me.
 
You seem to be complaining about sub-prime but then you
also sound like you are missing it??? Do you want the
"housing boom" back at any cost?
 
Is a bubble supposed to set the benchmark???
 
Is the cycle of business eliminated? Were we supposed to go
5 years without another recession? 10, 20, 50 or 100?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
I work in the telecom industry. I was laid off in 2002 in the
"tech bubble". This is the nature of business and industry. I now
work for myself as a consultant in this field.
 
Do you expect all business and industry to grow at a consistent
45 degree angle with no ups and downs?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Do you believe housing is done forever? No one will ever buy
a home in the next 2,3,4,5,10 years?
 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Look at BigBlocks statement:
 

"Still, there a few who claim themselve "patriots, bulls, optimists, or whatever", that are as blind as the idiots down in DC."

 

If I understand this. If I hate my country. If I am a pessimist. If

I call that "vision". Then sub-prime goes away?

 
Thanks
diceman
 
diceman
Posted : Monday, January 28, 2008 9:03:55 AM
Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
Its interesting that I hear no one mentioning hard
work and taking control of your life.
 
My guess is the MacDonald's reference in ward1's piece
is supposed to imply some poor slob in the service
sector was taken advantage of by a banker.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
I had a friend who lost his job. To put food on the
table he took a job at MacDonald's. He worked long
hours eventually becoming manager. He eventually
took over management of several in the area. Over
a period of time both his wife and sons became employees.
 
After a period of 20 years he retired wealthy.(both
pay and company stock) He moved to Puerto Rico
(were he was originally from) and lives in a large
home by the water.
 
(I'm sure he doesn't view Macs as a "service industry")
 
 
Have we really gotten to the point where we take no
responsibility for our actions?
(the FED made me do it)
 
 
 
Thanks
diceman
 
survivor
Posted : Monday, January 28, 2008 10:50:27 AM

Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
QUOTE (diceman)
 
Have we really gotten to the point where we take no

responsibility for our actions?

(the FED made me do it)
 


I do believe many today do NOT take responsibility for their own actions.  On the other hand, lots of folks still do.  

I would really prefer to get back to discussing trading strategies.  That is how  we will be able to navigate the bull or bear markets that lie ahead.

Thank you,
survivor
BigBlock
Posted : Monday, January 28, 2008 1:30:26 PM
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 2,126
I do not watch much TV.  Movies ocassionally, and certainly no Circus Show as the one on CNBC, or other financial channels that would do anything but clear your thoughts and ideas.

Now occassionally I run into the videos from this guy that besides being funny, are educational to the sense that they warn you not to watch and believe the mass media.

Check it out.

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