| Welcome Guest, please sign in to participate in a discussion. | Search | Active Topics | |
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
It is my opinion that at this time the markets are severly over extended. When I veiw all my holdings on zoom 1 (The fan pattern template) They all just look tired. Maybee I am wrong but I have a high profit margin on all of them. On some I could have made the maximum profit if I had sold last month but as we all know, very few can sell at the very top.
Starting today I will be exiting all my current poitions (I have held HLTH for a very long time).
In a couple of days I will be all cash (exept for my 401K and Roth IRA'S)
I want to devote myself entirely to the Bonaza Bottom and Fan pattern theories.
I just thought that I would share this as I am a regular contributor to this forum...
Tommy21..
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/21/2004
Posts: 902
|
I tend to agree with you for my own reasons. There are scattered bright spots, but on the whole, I think "tired" is a very good word for it.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
I"m looking foreward to interacting with you on the bonanza bottom and Fan stuff.
I've been toying with the Trifecta a bit myself. I would think that HLTH would form it's right shoulder.. unless that was a double top.
Also Martha is saying that the Fall rally, which could happen anytime as that cycle is disturbed (see my other post on "the missing K cycle)and that is looks likt it could be stronger than last year.... this is just a possibility and her view of course. she also says that the summer may eventually give us a mild correction. or It may move sidewayse. I had been saying that I wanted to wait till after a decent correction to start holding things longer.... but this market seems to keep gong up so untill I get more confirmation to the contrary I'm still primarily hunting on the long side. I'm hoping to hang onto GROW for a few months at least. And asset management as well as regional banks keep coming up on the simple scan... so There may be some bottoms forming there.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
My Stock Market portfolio is completely liquid at this time. It was a shame that I did not sell last month but I still made some good profits. Uncle sam will love me for it... 
I am very nervous about this Market right now, yes it is reaching new highs and the visual slope looks steep, but price is to close to the 50 sma (not like the September through December action when price never came close to the 50). Also this steep climb to new highs is not convincing me. If you put a 40 day LR line on Volume it is pointing down. In fact all the Volume indicators are in negative divergence. MACD-H is also in Divergence.
I am going to do a lot of reaserch with my Bonanza Bottom and FAN Templates. And then take my time finding some buy candidates. Maybee give this Market a chance to settle down, and start making some sense..
Tommy21.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 39
|
I trade mostly options. One very obvious observation is that almost all puts and calls are at extremely high levels. This mostly occurs when a stock is in the news and there is an expected event that could move the stock one way or the other. Today, volatilities are generally up across the board. This could very well be the market telling us it expects a dramatic change.
I too am going mostly to cash. I don't want to be too aggressive shorting premium and have the market correct (my guess) and be upside down on most of my positions.
Anyone have any other thoughts?
mjwilt
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 319
|
The Dow is up 90 at 9:45 this morning.......is this going to be a follow-thru day from last week Thursday? Or just a head fake? Wish I could figure it out. Patience and cash may be the best answer right now.
|
|
|
Guest-1 |