Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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Hey guys.
Thanks by the way for all your previous input to my various quaetions. I try to keep them intelegent.
here is the deal. I recently traded NDAQ sucessfully (again. I havent traded this stock in a long time. so thw quaetion is yesterdays candle... the big black and the super extended volume. What is this telling me? If I were looking at a classic long set up and that were a Green candle I'd be inclined to skip on the logic that buying became "exausted" (probably). so As a short and with short term support so near... the tip of the whick in candle charts, on this volume I'd not be inclined to short this.
It is in an overall up trend. so I wonder is this a case of a super retracement that may have exausted it's self in one day? or is the super volume an anomalie or warning of more down side to come? Considering the length of the tail, buyers came in and brought price back up... but then agin I have seen stocks fall and have whicks everyday... so.
for what eve reason I'm mentally triping on this pattern... has anyone seen this before or have a guess as to the short term direction here?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/25/2005
Posts: 864
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Concerning NDAQ --
Based on the latest swing low established on 2/5 and the latest swing high established on 2/9, a target price of 44.49 can be established when using a Fibonacci expansion ratio of 2.618.
Daily S1 support is currently 33.83.
If we were to use this Daily S1 price as our entry price in determining the Reward To Risk of obtaining the target price of 44.49 (mentioned above) then we would get a Reward To Risk ratio of 14.60.
In summary, 44.49 may be achievable short term.
Finally, fundamentally speaking, the company appears to be solid when based on a scale of poor, fair, sound or strong. (IMO).
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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I don't like this type of price action at all.
Its basically at the same price it was at in
Oct 2005.
It would have to breakout above the 2006
highs before I would get interested in this.
Look at how favorable price action got in
early 2005. Once it started to take out the 2004
highs.
Obviously you can always "speculate".
(short a few days here, long a few days
there)
In my opinion your goal should be to
put the odds of success on your side.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 4/3/2005
Posts: 91
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The indicator that seems most scary at the moment is the ADX,DMI lines. My chart show the ADX almost in the middle and the DMI+ line descending , the DMI- line ascending and all three appear to be contacting at a single point. I can't remember ever seeing that, but it certainly seems to imply that the NDAQ is at a decisive point. IMO.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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That candle means that Earnings report is due out today, and someone, or many someones are anticipating the worst.
Try this leading costume indicator, indicator -
(H + L + C - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) * 2800 / 3 / (ABS(H + L + C - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H1 + L1 + C1 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H2 + L2 + C2 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H3 + L3 + C3 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H4 + L4 + C4 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H5 + L5 + C5 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H6 + L6 + C6 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H7 + L7 + C7 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H8 + L8 + C8 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H9 + L9 + C9 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H10 + L10 + C10 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H11 + L11 + C11 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H12 + L12 + C12 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + ABS(H13 + L13 + C13 - AVGH14 - AVGL14 - AVGC14) + .000001)
If you scroll back one day, it shows that somthing is not right, before the dark candle appears...
Also I agree with Jpendley about the DMI lines not looking right.
All my opinions on this are purely technical...
Apsll...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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By the way the custom indicator is called the Comodity Chanel Index Indicator...
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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can you tell more about using this indicator?
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Registered User
Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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apsll, was this one of your indicators or is it included in the TC program?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Developed by Donald Lambert, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) was designed to identify cyclical turns in commodities. The assumption behind the indicator is that commodities (or stocks or bonds) move in cycles, with highs and lows coming at periodic intervals. Lambert recommended using 1/3 of a complete cycle (low to low or high to high) as a time frame for the CCI. (Note: Determination of the cycle's length is independent of the CCI.) If the cycle runs 60 days (a low about every 60 days), then a 20-day CCI would be recommended.
There are 4 steps involved in the calculation of the CCI:
Calculate the last period's Typical Price (TP) = (H+L+C)/3 where H = high, L = low, and C = close.
Calculate the 20-period Simple Moving Average of the Typical Price (SMATP).
Calculate the Mean Deviation. First, calculate the absolute value of the difference between the last period's SMATP and the typical price for each of the past 20 periods. Add all of these absolute values together and divide by 20 to find the Mean Deviation.
The final step is to apply the Typical Price (TP), the Simple Moving Average of the Typical Price (SMATP), the Mean Deviation and a Constant (.015) to the following formula:
CCI = ( Typical Price - SMATP ) / ( .015 X Mean Deviation )
I copied the above indicator from an old thread that I read a while back. The author of the post was using it with a Stochastics 7,7,3 in the bottom window and this indicator in the middle window. It seems to react one step ahead of the stochastics.
In the top window with price I add a wilders RSI 6,4 which appears to react at the same speed of the other two indicators. You have to zoom in close to see the small changes in the lines, and I use them as a back up or confirmation to other more significant indicators.. (Do not use as a buy or sell signal)
Keep in mind that I am still experimenting with the significance of the indicator...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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That is Stochastics 7,3,3
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Registered User
Joined: 12/25/2004
Posts: 51
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What do you regard as more significant indicators in comparison to CCI, RSI, and Stochastics?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Most indicators when you break down there significance are just a reflection of Volume and Price (notice I said most, not all).
Relative strength is just comparing a trend against, or compared to another entity or a benchmark (Industry, Index,Etc..)
These are all very important, but every individuals interpretations, methods of application and success are so veried and can leave very large gray areas for those to debate about which is the more significant, the better choice, so on and so on..
If a given indicator helps you in your quest to predict the price action of any given stock at any given time, then it is significant to that individual..
That being said, Indicators are only half the equation, I have mentioned this before.. How you enter and exit a given security is the most importand half of this equation..
We (together) might like security XYZ, certain significant indicators show that it has a bright near term future. I buy 2,000 shares at $9.50 you wait for a little more confirmation and buy 1,500 shares at $10.00
Now the price goes to $10.45 for me that is a 10% Gain and for you just 4.5% so you want more, but I am happy and I sell my shares.
A week latter I ask you if you sold because now the price is at $9.85 and the indicators are not so possitive now..
Do you see where this is going...
To answer your question, significance like beauty is in the eye of the beholder....
(IMO)
Apsll...
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Registered User
Joined: 10/26/2005
Posts: 238
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Well said apsll. AB
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