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Joined: 4/18/2005
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ASPLL
I came across this stock again.. it is forming a shorter term triangle... I guess a pennant. what are your thoughts reguarding this char? I'm planing to buy it on the breakout... but I think it is getign close to failingin terms of fninishing the triangle... as I recal they should not get into the last 1/4 of the tip and still be considered valid.
the screaming bop is cause to stop one in their tracks.
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Joined: 9/22/2005
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Scott
A triangle should be 3 to 6 months long. You are correct that it this is developing as a pennant that could break in either direction. A pennant should be 3 to 6 weeks long, This one is 7 weeks (look at on a weekly chart).
The problem with this pennant is that it is almost to the apex (> 95%) and the nearer you approach to the apex, the less reliable it as a trading tool.
If it had broken the top line 10 to 15 days ago it might have realized a major fraction of the flag pole's length (6.86). As it is it will probably get very little of the potential. As I see it, this is not a highly profitable trade.
But I may be wrong. I frequently am.
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you basically confirmed everything I was thinking.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Thanks for the tip boys, I just bought at $8.58 It looks like it is braking the trend line as I am typing this...
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I am using the bottom of the penant as my stop loss $8.25
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Did you guys get in or not??
Scott remember your training (the indicators will tell you if an extended consolidation or bottom pattern will fail)
All the indicators look good to me, BOP, Stochastics, MACD, DMI+,
I am up 4.5% already..
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Joined: 9/22/2005
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This one is too rich for my blood,
I try to limit my stocks to the one to five dollar range.
Keep posting your progress from time to time.
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Joined: 9/22/2005
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I changed my mind. This one has too much potrntial.
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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Yea I got in friday some where in the whick... I'm in proffit now. The rest of my holdings got HAMMERED friday at teh end of the day.... today surged up a nd am drifting back down now. MAMA is disapointing and LMRA is not doing much since getting in .
actually I take that back .. everything I'm holding is at a loss.... I hate that! this choppy market is killing me. I'm not buying anything else untill markets break.... I've nibbled away at my capital since late NOV. finaly did some good on Wed and Thur but it is all undone today. Enough ..UNCLE!
this is IMO not a short term traders market, but Ive taken such losses lately I cant bring my self to open stops up for a position typ trade.
I think goam will actually do OK.
HTI and BRL are killing me. NFLX is doing me some good today.
by the way Sold ESLR the other day at 9.00.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Scott: you are heading for trouble my friend, If you cannot find success with short term trading in this market (And I agree it is more difficult to find the opportunities, however they are there) Then do what martha said to do.
In a dideways trending market, stocks are building consolidations or platforms until the market decides wich direction it will move.. Find the platforms were the indicators are showing a bias to the upside, and place a buy stop limit order GTC right above the high of the platform, once you are in the stock, then take a quick profit (even if you exit early). It is better to make small gains one at a time, then the losses you are now experiencing..
GOAM is the perfect example of this, you spotted it for me, and now we are both in profit.. I could have sold earlier for a 10% profit but I am holding..
You found GOAM now get out there and find some more like it..
Apsll..
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Scott: I bought just enough shares of GOAM at $8.34 to bring my cost average per share from $8.58 to $8.49 and put a stop loss for all shares at just below the low of the current platform at $7.90 (6.5% Risk) I still trust this pattern and belive that it will break that High again before the Market corection....
I do not understand why you would sell out of a strong pattern (GOAM), and then hold on the stocks that you mentioned on another thread, that appear to have weaker patterns, that is up to you of course, and I am not saying that your selections will fail..
It just strikes me that you did not fully grasp certain concepts that were stressed in the Techni Trader Course of study..
I do wish you luck my friend....
Apsll...
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Which concepts..
As I saw GOAM it was a creating a big loss for me.. I bought on the breakout from the pennant .. a point on the top trend line (technique from the latest position trade video). I got bought on a whick and price kept falling from there. Just sick of watching my account drop so I cut it short.
I could alwayse reevaluate it later and reenter I only pay $1.00 per trade.... How are you viewing the chart? can you attach the chart to the thread with your trendlines and what not?
The thing with Goam is that this consolidation, as I view it, has a low of $6.87 which it could touch before moving on ... provided the previous gap is a breakout gap... but I have seen allot of those fill so I don't put tons of faith in breakaway gaps.
Are you using the TECHNITRADER SCANS now.. which scans are you getting picks from if you are?
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I really am not sure that I would call this a flag or a pennant.. To me it is a consolidation or platform, starting on 1/10/07 to today, with a high of $9.48 and a low of $7.90
Keep in mind that today it kissed the 50 day moving average but did not penetrate it. The trend lines are barley visable, it is due to poor picture quality wich is out of my control...
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I do not use the Techni Trader scans any more...
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Initially I did consider this as a pennant, I drew the trend lines from the highs of 1/24/07 to 1/31/07 and the lows from 1/08/07 to 2/05/07
But on 2/12/07 the high of the day stoped at, and matched the high of 1/10/07 and todays action has rendered any idea of a pennant inoperable (I do not recall lately, a case were the candle has penetrated both the top and bottom of such a pattern in the same day)
Thus I am treating this as just a consolidation...
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right... After looking at the patterns myself the penant thing is no longer there... It is a consolidation and bop is screaming. However I don't put 100% of my faith in BOP... so I just felt like it disapointed for the short term and could get much worse.
typically in weak chopy markets I TRY not to hold intermediate term things and only really short or really long term stuff. The latter of which I havent started yet. Putting togeather lists now.
It seems like last time I was in this kind of market I figured out that i did better to either sit it out and trade only those position held stocks that I wanted to get into and gave me the oportunity during the chop or to get in and get out quickly in 1-2 days.
I Came up with the folowing possible entries from my nightly check list, none of which I entered because I was cautious about today...
CLE, IRBT (with intra day support)DA, PERY, and COOL. Perry and Da would have left me in decent proffits.
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I have done it again.. I am so convinced that this is a winning pattern that I Have purchased more shares, and my current cost average per share is now $8.35 which alows me to drop my stop loss down to $7.86 and improve my risk from 6.5% to 5.8%
The price only needs to reach $9.32 to acheive success with my Risk/Reward ratio of 2/1
I am pretty sure that price will kiss the consolidation low of $7.90 in the next day or two, that is why I wanted more breathing room down there.
This platform has touched the top limits twice and then the bottom limits twice.
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I could not pass on the chance to take this profit.
I sold out above $8.65 the price came down as I my shares were selling (I do not know how it works but maybe selling my shares impacted the price) But I cleared a little over $2,000...
A bright spot in the middle of this New England Blizzard
today...
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I forgot to thank you Scott for bringing this stock to my attention, I actually had it on one of my watchlists, but as happens all to often, I will neglect them in favor of looking at new charts..
Once in a stock I am ever vigilant, I should pay as much attention to the oppertunities hidding in my watchlists.
If you were here in Boston, the first round would be on me.
Again thank you...
Apsll...
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Not a problem... I'm considering rebuying it at a lower risk entry.
I'm finally having a good streak... now not to let it go to my head.
Reguarding the watch lists... I use the Technitrader scans mostly the bottom and consol scans for various things. I don't like their short scans... useless as far as I can tell for entering short orders, but good for seeing market numbers. By the time a stock fits that criteria it is to late to short it.
I take time building a couple of watch lists on the top os which is a "FATORITES" which I check every day rain or snow. I try to make this list as diverse as I can but focused on those stocks that I think will be good performers. In day spast I tried tomake shure that the general bulk of them were leading in their industry or subindustry.
then ocasionally I'll look through the Cheap volitile stocks scan that HNC helped me with or the momoentum scan to see if there is seomthing cooking there. When I start finding the same stock poping up in different scans I take notice of it and move it to the nightly watch list. I try to keep that list around 100 or less. that is tomany realy but I keep finding interesting things.
I find I do better that was than constantly looking for new charts.
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Posts: 4,090
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Not a problem... I'm considering rebuying it at a lower risk entry.
I'm finally having a good streak... now not to let it go to my head.
Reguarding the watch lists... I use the Technitrader scans mostly the bottom and consol scans for various things. I don't like their short scans... useless as far as I can tell for entering short orders, but good for seeing market numbers. By the time a stock fits that criteria it is to late to short it.
I take time building a couple of watch lists on the top os which is a "FATORITES" which I check every day rain or snow. I try to make this list as diverse as I can but focused on those stocks that I think will be good performers. In day spast I tried tomake shure that the general bulk of them were leading in their industry or subindustry.
then ocasionally I'll look through the Cheap volitile stocks scan that HNC helped me with or the momoentum scan to see if there is seomthing cooking there. When I start finding the same stock poping up in different scans I take notice of it and move it to the nightly watch list. I try to keep that list around 100 or less. that is tomany realy but I keep finding interesting things.
I find I do better that was than constantly looking for new charts.
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QUOTE (apsll) Thanks for the tip boys, I just bought at $8.58 It looks like it is braking the trend line as I am typing this...
I am not expert of pennants and other formations. The stock seems still very interesting and it could breakout nicely. The volume has been drying up very well. Let'see. Could it breakout at $8.8?
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Joined: 9/22/2005
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It just broke the bottom of the triangle. Be careful.
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