Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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SONS: Looks like a good buy on many fronts, It has good fundimentals. They are an Industry leader..And there sub-Industry is in a mild uptrend along with the stock itself..
It fits in with "HNC"'s swing trade patern, and it is very close to a decision point..
I will be in at $7.35 (unless it drops a little more, and then I will buy just above the current days high)
Just my opinion.. Apsll..
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Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
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Excellent candidate!!!
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Registered User
Joined: 1/29/2005
Posts: 104
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As I understand HNC's pattern, you would enter only if the next day's (yesterday) stock was at a higher price than the last down day ($7.55). It's reward/risk ratio is (7.75-7.55)/(7.55-6.98) = .20/.57 = 0.35. Not a good candidate.
Two other possible candidates with good ratios also are: ICON (2.31 ratio) and CNB (3.52 ration).
The only positive things I see on this stock's chart is that it may be bouncing off the 20 ma and it's in an upward trend. Most other indicators are not positive.
Good trading.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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lpark: yes I agree that Icon is a better risk situation, If you run the numbers, and I do think that it is also a worthy candidate.
I still like SONS better for other reasons however, I have unconventional ways of setting up my indicators (custom, and standard) that have been very faithfull to me, and right now they are showing more possitive signs for SONS.
My risk/reward formula speaks to a different senario then yours I think..
I am using the candle from the 19th, and the high was $7.29 so my buy would be $7.30 and I would place a stop at $6.95 just below the low of the 18th which is a possible 5% loss, I see the stock going to $8.00 plus, if you follow the trendline conecting the recent highs. That would be a10% gain wich would be a 2/1 ratio.. Again as everyone on this forum must know by now,, I do things a little different than everyone else (but my methods seem to work for me)
Any way this is not meant to be confrontational, because I respect your opinion and I read all your posts, and 99% of the time we are in agreement.
Thank you for your input.. Apsll.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/7/2007
Posts: 45
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Apsll can you please share you pcf that you used that pulled SONS.
I'm still paper trading, but I see what you and HNC sees and if the time is right I think I'll make my first trade.
I do have to say I'm still really lost when it come to writing these pcf's
Thanks again
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Cowgirl1964: Keep in mind that my experience is limited to 5 plus years trading, but there is no harm in sharing a very basic scan with you...
Very simple realy:
Creat a new easy scan..
All stocks:
Price per share: (of course this will be up to you)
then a sreen for Volume: -(V > 500) AND (V1 > 500) AND (AVGV10 > 200)
Keep in mind that the PCF for Volume is not realy 500 shares traded, it is realy 50,000..But type 500 and the program will read that as 50,000 shares minimum Volume..
Now you also need Dicemans custom indicator which is: -
((ABS(XAVGC3-XAVGC8)+ABS(XAVGC5-XAVGC8)+ABS(XAVGC10-XAVGC8)+ABS(XAVGC12-XAVGC8)+ABS(XAVGC15-XAVGC8))/XAVGC8)*100
You might need to creat a new Chart Template for all this..
In the top window right click and pick chart template, and then Price Graph Type, and then Candlestick.. also right click on price chart, add indicator, linear regresion, period 63
In the middle window right click, add indicator, custom, then - indicator,,, Just add the formula for the Diceman custom indicator. Leave all check boxes empty except visible.
Now that you have all that set up you run your scan..All these are not candidates however, now you have to do some sorting..
Go to the top window and right click on Linear Regresion 63. and choose sort by visual slop.. Now make sure you are in descending order and hit your home key..
Now flag maybe the top 40 or 50 and creat a new watch list useing only the flaged items from your curent watchlist..
Once you have this ready, then your next step is to go to the middle window and right click on the Diceman indicator and sort by actual value. Once that sort is complete, then this time make sure you are in ascending order,(because you want the lower number values at the top of the scan) and hit the home key..
You should now have at the top of your list some very usable candidates to choose from..
Make sure that you scrutinize these top candidated further with other technical indicators.. This basic scan by itself will not guarantee your success..
Good luck with all this..
If you do come up with a good candidate, then ask One of the veterans for their input.. I do not want your first endever to fail..
Apsll..
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I forgot to mention that with Dicemans custom indicator you can put a check mark in the ( Center Zero Line Box )..
It might help you to read it more clearly.. I do not use the zero line for this indicator, but maybe you should...
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Registered User
Joined: 1/7/2007
Posts: 45
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Thanks Apsll....5 yrs I wish I had 5 year under my belt.
Please I read everything and since we can't pm's each other and have to post on the forum to get answers, I have alot of questions and alots more to come so please I need everyone ones input.
Thanks
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Cowgirl, If I may call you that..
I feel at this time that I must tell you somthing of great importance...
Even with all the help that you are receiving from this forum, do not think that it is a template for success..
You are only receiving broad strokes here.. It will be up to you to forge your own trading style.
There are so many variables involved, and the world of trading is so vast.
It is only through years and years of trading experience, major let downs, capital deteriation, frustration, many thoughts of giving up, that you start to see any light at all, and then and only then can you call yourself a rookie..
Do not think that this forum is going to turn you into a successful trader because it is not. You are just now entering into your freshman year of the School of hard knocks, there are times coming for you that will test your charactor, and you will feel like giving up..
If I were you I would not trade live until you have developed some kind of trading style and paper trade that style until you have success, and if you do not have success then refine and change that style until you do find it..
Becuase you will loss you capital quickly.. the stock market does not show remorse or pitty, and it will not stop until it has taken all your money ( from the terminator ).
By the way I am not claiming to be an experienced trader, I am just a rookie still trying to learn as well...
Anyway I wish you luck, and welcome to the school of hard knocks...
Apsll..
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Registered User
Joined: 10/26/2005
Posts: 238
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IMO... This does not make a good swing set up because the low of the current pullback is lower the the last pullback. It may be a trend change or consolidating. AB
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Registered User
Joined: 8/12/2006
Posts: 83
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Period 12/18 - 01/03 : We see a CUP formation. It broke through the NECK Resitance with good volume 01/03, 01/04.
7 can now be considered a good Support Base.
Entry: It will test the lows of 6.95. If it goes below 6.88 or lower, I would call off. Buy after an UP day (i.e. If todays High is higher than Yesterday, buy tomorrow, above todays high ). Say 7.3
Stop Loss : 6.95 - Courtesy APSLL
Profit Target : 8+ - Agree with APSLL. (Trend is your Friend)
My Entry Style: I normally do not place buy order above confirmation Signal. After the confirmation, (i.e. Stock traded above 7.35), wait for the stock to retrace and buy at a lower price.
Say today - SONS cross 7.35 mark, you can still expect stock to hit a low between 7.1 and 7.2.
Use Daily/Weekly/Monthly charts for Analysis. Use INTRADAY charts (upto 20days) for the final decision before BUY or SELL. I have been able to quite a few of losses to break evens or better using INTRADAY charts.
This approach has its drawbacks, So as we all know, Develop your own trading style, the one that fits your personality and more important - one that is profitable.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Is there an echo in here... You have a good strategy for this ZAG, But Alenbarys warning is also valid,,
If it goes below $6.90 then the trend is not our friend.. I think it is going to be a few days before we get our answer.
In the meantime I am looking at BSG...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I bought SONS this morning at $2.29 For the same reasons that ZAG and myself have posted earlier in this thread, I belive that this stock will reach $8.00 soon and I am useing "HNC"s swing trade method to get there..
The markets look like they will be neurotic again today so everyone be carfull. (tight stops)
Apsll...
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Corection: I bought SONS at $7.29 not $2.29
I hope the market is kinder to me tomorow...
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Registered User
Joined: 6/1/2006
Posts: 48
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CowGirl... Given the current overall market situation, you might want to continue paper trading during the coming sessions. In my opinion, the overall market is due for a correction similar to the ones seen between 3/7/05 through 4/26/05, 9/13/05 through 10/14/05, 5/8/06 through 6/14/06. I remember last summer, we were waiting to see if the test of the June lows would hold during July... then we had the double bottom (of sorts 7/19), and it became a great time to be buying stocks. Since then, we had a nice run. Things got dicey around 1/1/07. After the first week of this month, it became clearer that we had lost the previous momentum, and have now moved into a sideways range in the S&P 500 between about 1400 to 1430. It would make perfect sense now for the S&P 500 to correct back to around 1400+ or so. Failure on the S&P500 at 1400 could lead to the kind of corrections mentioned above. A correction on the S&P 500 down to 1280 or so would still be in line with the longer-term uptrend that we've been in for about 3+ years now. Some say we have not broken that trend yet, and technically this is correct. However, we now are in a trader's market (get in and get out fast trades). I personally am in cash now, and looking to short the S&P 500 on any rally from here that fails to attain a new high. I would consider going long only after the S&P 500 successfully holds a pullback and test of the 1403 area (and only then, with tight stop-loss orders in place on very fundamentally strong stocks that are leaders in the best industry groups). Cheers and good fortune to you~ 
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Joined: 1/24/2007
Posts: 4
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Hello all.
I'm new to this board, but not to investing in general. I have been using different indicators here and there trying to make the best of my limited knowledge of all the differing types available. I've been looking into SONS personally, but don't know really what to look for here. I looked up HaveNoCent's formula for stock ratios and I like the idea, but on this stock in particular, I don't think that ratio is high enough to put a lot of faith into. Feel free to badger me if I'm way out of the ballpark on this one, but I see the momentum of the uptrend from Dec 11 - Jan 15 slowing, if not reversing. If this is true, then the probability of the stock reaching $8/share again is extremely rare, until another uptrend occurs. After seeing today's drop, I don't think that uprend will be anytime soon. I'd look for a double white candle or something like a morning star. I'd definitely avoid using the bullish harami as an indicator, especially as the most recent one has brought one 'up' day followed by one 'down' day.
Just my two cents. Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. I kinda see this as a learning experience, and everyone's input is helpful.
~Persy
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Registered User
Joined: 11/22/2006
Posts: 28
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If you had stuck to your original buy @ $7.35, you probably would not own it now and would have saved the 3.5% you already lost.
I do not look at all the "recommendations" here, I simply do not have the time, but I looked at SONS-briefly-and I think it has 5% left in it,minimum, heading south.
Personally, I see the tail end of a great run in '06 having some cracks in it.
Not sure when earnings are, but a knock-out Qtr is about the only chance I see to push this over $8 short term.
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Joined: 9/21/2005
Posts: 566
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This was a great exchange of views, very informative commentary. HaveNoCents, you should post another indicator tool to drive another series of posts and observations...
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Registered User
Joined: 1/24/2007
Posts: 4
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I agree with jcfla. If there were more exchanges like this on opinion of stock indicators, I think we could really get some interesting spreads of ideas.
~Persy
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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You are all right about this, I just looked at some of my longer term indicators and Stochastics is making lower highs (November - January) and that does speak to toping action.. I was just thrilled with the new indicator that HNC has been generous enough to share with us, and that indicator by itself is still showing a hold for this stock..
But I broke one of my own rules - (always have confirmation from multiple indicators) before any buy...
I have a hidden stop loss at $6.90 which is about a 5% loss so If I get pushed out at that level I will know that it is because I was wrong (I broke one of my rules)...
I too wish we could have more in depth descussion on tecnical analysis (inicators), That is why I cronical some of my purchases on this forum, so that others can see what I am seeing in the indicators.
Anyway, thanks for your input everyone
Apsll..
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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APSLL
Just wanted to say that your words to Cowgirl were chocked full of wisdom. Entering my 2nd year of trading I know EXACTLY what you are talking about(or do I). But as an absolute beginner I remembered the desire to to have guidence and can aprecieate cowgirls thoughts and remarks. The thing is I dont' think these questions ever really go away do they.. I learn something and then have more quetions than before.
I agreed with your take on SONS but wouldn't have seen it that way till I read your thread. I simply sw it as a pennant which are generally continuation patterns... since the intermediate trend is up .. then up would be the way to go. I would have been tepmted to try to enter of the upper limit of the top trend line. However I wonder how you feel about the potential resistance at the high consolidation of 03 seen on weekly candles. To my line of thinking (which is often flawed) that combined with the current market condition would not be a great recipie ... for me. BUT I'm lurking around here to expose myself to some new aproaches anyway.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Scott you are absolutely correct about the resistance from 2003, and that is at around $8.00 plus a little...
That was my target price, I was hopeing to get a good 10% gain, while only risking 5%.. Since my stop loss has not been breached at this point then I am still in the game...
I also want to clarify that I was not just useing HNCs methods for buying this stock, (it was a big part of it) but the mistake that I made was that I was looking at short term indicators for a short term play, and they did look promising.. But you should never ignore the long term health of a stock, and those long term indicators. I would not have entered into this trade - had I taken the extra time to view the entire picture...
Just food for thought, and again thanks to those that reminded me of that, - Atlanticboater, and Persyeg..
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Registered User
Joined: 10/26/2005
Posts: 238
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apsll, I have several chart templets and scans setup for the way I like to scan for picks I have a Breakout setup, Fallen angel, Rolling and Swing setups. Each have different easyscans and pcf's. It is vaey easy to forget to check something (long term outlook, fundimentals,industry group) you get the picture. So I made a check sheet for each setup. This alone has improved my trading and record keeping. It is very simple and includes stock sym. chart ,easyscan used,sorted by, fundimentals I look at,price pattern ,industry check, entry profile (example break out) channel break yes ot no, TSV>0 MA 20,50,200 up, does volume support move?) and entry, stop and target price. All must be checked. Writing this down keeps me from breaking my rules, and keeps me from missing something. AB
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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AB: The part of my trading that I need to work on the most is discipline. I will have four or five great successfull trades and then get a big head, and think I can do no wrong.
Luckily I do not put all my eggs into the same basket. After I have a big loss from a stupid mistake- (And I do not mean getting pushed out by a stop loss, that is not a mistake. The trade just whent against me)-It makes me come back down to earth and realize, like the veterans have said many times, we have to make as much money as we can in this bull market, because there is a Bear market coming, we just do not know when..
I do have a journal that I log all my trades in, But I should also make a check list (like you have) to veiw and fill out before I execute any trade.
Thanks for your advice AB...
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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APSLL the exact thing happens to me..and allot of times my rules I'm breaking are subtle or I start lowering my standards or arbitrarily manipulating my risk calculations because the chart looks so good. And BANG! reality check.
During Nov. I had 11 positions open, up to my prostate in margin and all were going in my favor..I thought I was a stock picking god, and it all reversed in the course of a week. The greater repurcusions of those learning experiences are the psychological impact that is created then. YOu.. or at least I begin to doubt what I am seeing and confidence is shaken and moves that are right are over scrutinezed and missed, which creates more problems in the scramble to try to regain your sense of your "zone".
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Scott: was that considered a Bullish Harami candlestick that SONS closed with?
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Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
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I dont know what that is.. I see a Pennant forming.. and think that more upside is probable.. volume is wierd I think. but this market is wierd .. for me anyway. I was doing a point and 1/2 in CRDN short today, felt like finally things were turnign around and came back from an errand to se I could get .66 out of it.
The doji's can make good entries as far as risk and getting in and out quick.. if you can make your self take what you are given. My brokerage has an order that will cancell other orders so one day I want to figure out how to enter both long and short to mutually cancel each other on the trigger.
the pattern may be somethign like a mornign star, pole vault, or shooting star... I havent worked with them much and forget how they look.
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Sold a little while ago at $7.15 (small loss), did not want to wait for the stop loss.. I feel ambiguous about this stock, and there are other opportunities to look at..
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