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Registered User
Joined: 12/25/2004
Posts: 51
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I am this weekend taken by such comments as Cramer "the bears are slaughtered!" Bearish at the moment being very unpopular, any thoughts on which technicals are best and particularly now best at flagging contrarian opportunity? Am I alone in suspecting bullish is perhaps now a bit too popular in the press? What is the current technical case for up and away is just beginning in a breakout versus last gasp break the line to "draw'em in"?
How many of us on which side and the preponderance of studies bullish vs. bearish should also interest all of us using TC.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2006
Posts: 296
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Glad you mentioned the subject - I was mesmerized by last week's activity and wasn't giving a thought to the "bad" side. As always, stay bullish until proven otherwise.
But......NASDAQ has an important area around 2515 (2503 now). It seems like everything went up on Friday. I maintain a listing of about 100 Gold/Silver and Energy stocks - ALL were up on Fri. Also, some of these (like RIG) are screaming "buy me". I can recall a few other times when "everything" went up, but I don't recall the "what happened after" part.
So, be at least slightly wary.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
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I wouldn't say that I am bearish, but I would not be surprised if we made a nice pullback here. Neither the S&P or the Dow have taken out their recent highs -- Yet. We have gone straight up since July. And have been going up for about 4 years. If we take out the highs, then all bets are off. Good luck.
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Registered User
Joined: 4/3/2005
Posts: 91
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My thoughts are that as the bullish mood continues and more people who are normally not active in the market, catch more fever, money will shift more to speculative stocks rather than solid financial ( yet possibly boring )lower risk ones.
Even mutual funds are susceptible in my opinion.
Since it seems to me that more decisions are going to be emotional rather than technical, I would put more emphasis on my candlestick interpretations. I see it as a great time to look for good stable financial stocks that are currently less in favor than a high risk/high reward stock.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
Posts: 6,049
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I agree with Golfman25.
Also this would depend on your timeframe.
Are you talking about a correction like last summer
or a multiyear top in the market?
My guess is the correction is a lot more likely than
a top. ( I could be part of the problem )
My view is its a bull until proven otherwise.
Should trouble start from here that's what stops
are for.
Thanks
diceman
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Registered User
Joined: 1/29/2005
Posts: 104
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The DOW last week was forming a bearish wedge, but this past week had too much strength and is now in a nice channel, but at the resistance level. The beginning of this week may provide a breakout or a continuing channeling movement.
NASDAQ definitely broke through resistance and is still heading up.
S&P 500 is near high and should break out early this week.
All indicators show strength and a good bull market still in play.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/30/2004
Posts: 3
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As has been beaten into my head by 'experts' and experience: "Trend is your friend" and "Price is everything" For bearish trades now I am looking for "excessive exhuberence"
TheLearner
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Registered User
Joined: 1/12/2006
Posts: 296
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To clarify my info on 01/13: NASDAQ is bullish - last week it passed resistance and volume (buying) was noticeably heavier than recent prior weeks; it also had a MACD crossover (these actions probably represent institutional buying to reposition portfolios for the new year). NASDAQ ia also leading in terms of percentage gains compared to other indicies (it had been lagging).
The minor negative new is still the 2515 area and price moving too far out from the 20 day - guess at a small pullback ahead.
Major turning points in the market are usually represented by significant volatility - this action is not currently apparent.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/7/2004
Posts: 393
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2006 was a year of multiple market head fakes.I suspect 2007 may be the same.Trying to identify the begining of sector up trends may still be your best bet.
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Registered User
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
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Dice, to clarify, I am thinking correction.
I am also looking towards the year 2000 highs. DJ 30 has exceeded them, but S&P 500 and total market index aren't quite there yet. Nas is not even close.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/25/2004
Posts: 51
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In recent few weeks my "snail" mail is bringing several times increase in offers for investing guidance news letters and seminars. Again, is this bullish climax or a market breaking out. Those pointing to the trend are correct it isn't broken, and NASDAQ pushing ahead the others would seem more like breakout than failure.
With a press gone in past two weeks from disparaging bears to near conclusive thoughts of market decline, and mail suggesting increasing public interest, it's a problem I feel more than see. Succinctly, despite that talk and the uptick in postage, it's too quiet! Makes me feel like prey...as if stepping in a still forest.
Anyone else especially uncomfortable and noticing unusually little but loose talk is EFFECTIVELY pointing anywhere?
Anyone else suspect when direction comes to the market it will be a "Katie bar the door!" for mostly emotional reason, and the current quiet is all the warning coming?
With so many of us looking at the trees (aka individual securities), have we nonetheless inadequate view the all but still forest just about to bite, or must it the tree filled market get more participatory yet continue quieting internally?
It's the forest as big picture bothers me right now, as I believe it could soon be fully set to overwhelm the individual trees. Think no bids. No bids means no effective exit strategy, which hasn't been seen in about 20 years...and that's bad too!
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Registered User
Joined: 12/25/2004
Posts: 51
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The good news: Direction isn't clear. Instead no bids, it could be next major leg up just ahead. The bust of 2001 may not have been top the two decades run! Definitely a more pleasant thought and more consistent with the fundamentals except for personnal debt and international stability mostly affecting financially less important areas except petroleum sourcing.
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