| PeterWorden |
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Administration, Member, Platinum User, TeleChart
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| Administration |
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| Thursday, October 7, 2004 |
| Sunday, March 27, 2011 9:49:45 AM |
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I find your questions confusing. It is clear you are getting bogged down in the intricate details. There ARE NO "exact rules." It is merely a methodology used to generate ideas for potential buy candidates.
-Peter Worden
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As both Bruce and Craig have stated here, we have no intention of discontinuing TeleChart.
In fact, the Worden Stochastic indicator, which I use in my latest Winning Stocks Selection Simplified, Vol. IV CD-ROM video is likely to be added to the available technical indicators within TeleChart.
-Peter Worden
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1. My price moving averages are all simple.
2. The TSV 16 and moving average of 15 are simple.
3. The 8 and 22 moving averages on MoneyStream are exponential. The Envelope Channel is a 22 exponential with a width of 10. This is exponential and applied to MoneyStream itself, not the other moving averages. I believe I mispoke in the video as to what the Envelope Channel was directly applied to.
Peter Worden
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Here is the post I made in pre-market to the TC Platinum community on May 24. Obviously, this is no longer timely information. Some of these stocks have since moved lower and may now actually be experiencing technical bounces from oversold levels. Some I was just wrong about from the get-go. However, a number of these stocks still have a bearish bias and will likely trend lower. I would also like to mention that I have made numerous follow-up comments in TC Platinum chat on many of these stocks.
[5/24/2007 9:08:31 AM] <PeterWorden> Good morning, all. Here are some short-sale candidates produced from a recent scan. Some of these I have already mentioned, while others are new.... CTSH, TTEC, VNO, CHINA, CPTS, HMSY, AKAM, VTAL, HOLX, THQI, SVVS, DRIV, PLLL, KMX, JWN, SWS, SLG, AVB, MDRX, HAIN, AEO, KRC, INFY, TCO, KNOT.
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QUOTE (qingliz6) For the ticker TELK, the June BOP showing strong buying sign, but TSV is below the zero line, how do you understand if this is a buying action or selling? Do you think the TSV will climb up over the zero line? Thank. Qing
Qing, I believe this to be a simple case of conflicting indicators. This kind of thing happens quite frequently and should typically be dealt with by simply pressing your space bar and moving on to the next stock in your WatchList.
This being said, here is my current analysis of TELK in a nutshell. First off, let me say that Balance of Power (BOP) is an indicator that I rely on considerably less than TSV and MoneyStream (MS). I find that BOP tends to be more ambiguous on a greater number of stocks. I’m not saying BOP isn’t a valid indicator. I’m only saying it seems to work reliably on a fewer number of stocks than TSV and MS.
Interestingly enough, TELK appears to be a stock where BOP has worked with at least some degree of reliability in the past. The recent BOP buying (green activity) may be an indication that some systematic accumulation has been taking place. For what it’s worth, this may suggest that a tradable low is in place. In fact, the stock has moved up slightly over the past two sessions, but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Based on what TSV and MS are showing us on both a short- and longer-term basis, there is no getting around the fact TELK is an extremely weak stock in a confirmed downtrend. And like BOP, TSV and MS have proven to be reliable in offering technical clues with this particular stock (TELK) in the past.
Is BOP telling us TELK is nearing a bottom? Well, maybe, but acting on this at such an early juncture without more supporting evidence from TSV and MS in my humble opinion would be foolhardy. You would only be guessing and I certainly don’t see the odds as being in your favor. And isn’t that really the primary objective...to put the odds in your favor?
Best regards,
Peter Worden
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Well, bustermu and NM111652, I’m not exactly sure what answer the two of you are looking for. Is it that you seek the “very best” TSV parameter – the precise magical number which is all telling? I hate to disillusion you, but that “number” does not exist. Or shall I at least say if it does I haven’t found it. As I have pointed out more times than I care to count, technical analysis is “subjective” and as much an art as a science.
Perhaps I should have been clearer, when I wrote in a separate response to another individual, “I respectfully, though adamantly disagree with your idea that by changing the parameters you can easily arrive at an infinite number of different conclusions, be it bullish or bearish or anything in between. This is simply not true. And in the very rare cases where similar parameters yield conflicting results the obvious action is no action at all. Simply avoid the stock altogether.” I probably should have qualified my overall remark by using the words “similar parameters” in my first sentence instead of waiting until the third sentence. So let me clarify this point. Similar parameters will usually yield similar results. This means a TSV 28, 31 and 35 should all lead you to very similar conclusions.
In one argumentative example (not displayed in this particular thread), bustermu cites his very different results on a daily chart of VRSN using two very different TSV parameters. I have but one explanation for you, bustermu. A TSV 67 (exponential) and a TSV 87 (simple) are NOT “similar parameters.” You see how that works?
Amazingly enough, the conclusions drawn from the two different settings are actually not as significantly different as you might think, but they are nevertheless different. Why are they different? The TSV 87 is a longer-term parameter and therefore lags the TSV 67. And the TSV 87 (simple) certainly (and obviously) lacks the sensitivity and responsiveness of the TSV 67 (exponential). Another way of saying this is the 87 (simple) will be slower to change than the 67 (exponential). It is for this reason the bullish readings of the past four to six weeks on a daily chart of VRSN have not yet shown up using the longer-term parameter.
On a relative basis, I honestly don’t think I use a vast assortment of “so many” different TSV parameters as NM111652 will have you believe, but perhaps my previous explanation of what I specifically do use was somewhat misleading. I do sometimes vary my parameters from stock to stock and depending on the specific time frame (i.e. daily, weekly, etc.). I do this in order to optimize the indicator’s performance relative to price. I want a parameter that fits the chart, which is to say I want a parameter which has worked reasonably well over the history of the chart. I many times do this for the purpose of demonstrating my chart reading techniques, both in Worden Notes and online videos.
Based on what I have explained to this point you can probably figure out the big mystery surrounding bustermu’s other two examples in which he finds dramatic differences between a TSV10 and a TSV31 and a TSV18 and a TSV51, respectively. Therefore, I will not take the time to address them individually.
Regards,
Peter Worden
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This "systematic method" is not only not copyrightable it is not original. We have been applying LR lines to MoneyStream and price and comparing the two for many years.
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I assume you are referring to Cox Radio (CXR). Let me start by asking you a question. Why is it when I look at CXR on a 4-month chart the stock price appears to be at a new high, but when I look at it on a 16-month chart it isn't at a new high at all? In fact, it is much closer to a NEW LOW than it is to a new high! The answer is obviously very simple. CXR is at a new 4-month high, but not a new 16-month high.
Price is plotted on a stock chart to reflect where prices are relative to where they have been. Obviously, a price chart must be scaled accordingly to accomodate the range of prices. MoneyStream is no different. You may think the indicator is actually showing you different readings depending on whether you zoom in or zoom out on a chart, but everything remains relative. I assure you a divergence which exists between price and MoneyStream between two specific and corresponding points on a chart WILL NEVER change regardless of how much (or how little) trading history you choose to display on the chart. The only thing you ever need to be concerned with when trying to interpret MoneyStream is how it behaves RELATIVE TO PRICE. That is all -- nothing else. For example, if price goes to a new high, when compared to a previous high (when viewed together on the same chart) and MoneyStream fails to go to a new high when compared to where it was when price hit its previous high, you have a NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE....plain and simple.
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I have read through this entire thread and I would like to thank everyone here for their contributions to this spirited discussion.
Yesterday evening I posted a follow-up comment on CMGI in a Worden Note. For those of you who monitor this forum, but may not be a TCNet or TC2000 customer, here is a reprint of my note.
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January 31, 2005 5:18 PM ET
When I featured buy candidate, CMGI almost exactly one month ago I did not expect the stock to be on the cusp of a rather serious price correction. Nor did I anticipate the extent to which the stock would pull back.
Over the past week, CMGI’s stock price has managed to stabilize and even show subtle signs of renewed strength. While price did violate its 50-day (exponential) moving average earlier this month, the 200-day (exponential) moving average has managed to stem the recent decline and provide (to this point anyway) some short-term support.
There are some encouraging signs which suggest the correction may have run its course. In addition to price holding above its 200-day moving average, TSV 67 on my attached chart is successfully holding at the zero-line. TSV is hinting toward a possible upturn, but I would feel better if the indicator moved back above its 20-day (exponential) moving average. MoneyStream is doing fairly well holding its ground in the face of the recent pullback, but I would ideally like to see it back above its own 22-day (simple) moving average. In fact, I cannot deem any rally attempt from here genuine unless MoneyStream moves decisively back above its moving average in the process. (TC2000 and TCNet customers should refer to today’s Worden Note on CMGI in order to view my attached chart.)
I would also like to mention that even though I view CMGI’s trading volume over the past couple of days as rather lackluster, I do like the way both TSV and MoneyStream are behaving on some of the intra-day charts -- specifically, the 10-minute, the 15-minute and the 30-minute time frames.
The bottom line is I still very much like CMGI’s longer term potential and I do see possible signs of a rally attempt coming from around current levels, but until I see positive confirmation from my indicators (please see my comments above) I will remain somewhat cautious in here. -Peter Worden
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Here is a copy of an email recently received from a subscriber. I have included my response in this thread.
Don,
The CD on "Interpreting Time Segmented Volume (TSV)," that I purchased some years ago considered that TSV values above the zero line were possible buying opportunities and TSV values below the zero line were potential selling opportunities. However, recent Worden Notes that I have looked at have been using a moving average (MA) with TSV.
I am trying to find out more about the use of an MA with TSV, and I am hoping that someone can direct me to an appropriate Worden Note, or to an approximate date on which an MA with TSV was first used so that I can search the archived Worden Notes.
Thanks,
Gerry
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Gerry,
I produced the explanatory CD-ROM video you are referring to and while both my father and I look at our proprietary technical indicators in a similar fashion, our approaches certainly vary as do our general conclusions on occasion.
When constructing my indicator templates, I have always (for many years) displayed a moving average of TSV overlaid on my actual TSV. I do this for two primary reasons.
First of all, I always like to see the more smoothed measure of TSV (the moving average) and how it relates to the zero-line. I like to see not only where the moving average is at the current time, but where it has been (positive or negative) over the history of my chart. And how the movement of the TSV moving average (above or below the zero-line) relates to the movement in price.
Secondly, I like to see how the TSV itself relates to its own moving average. Is TSV above or below its moving average? How has TSV responded to various price swings? Has TSV failed to move up through its moving average, as the result of a rally in price? Has TSV successfully held at or above its moving average, as a result of a pullback in price? How these two indicator lines inter-relate offers one more way to find clues regarding future price direction.
I appreciate your email and feel there are probably others who might benefit from my response. Therefore, I will post our exchange in the "Stock and Market Talk" forum at www.Worden.com. I hope my explanation provides you additional understanding on the subject of interpreting our TSV. Thanks again.
Best regards,
Peter F. Worden
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