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Profile: Wfn
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User Name: Wfn
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Joined: Thursday, October 7, 2004
Last Visit: Saturday, December 26, 2009 8:49:24 PM
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Topic: The market sell off
Posted: Wednesday, January 5, 2005 10:31:09 PM
Ref: Nasdaq, Interesting observations which made me also curious to look back. I see some things different, i.e. 50,200 &500Sma all in uptrend. Starting in 1991 at 407 then peak 2000 at 4500, bubble burst and 2003 low of 1075, then back to 2190 recently and close today 2090. On a log scale the move from 2000 top to 2003 low was just over a 50% fib retracement. If we made the same 50% retracement from the August low to 2190, it would take us to 1960 area.

Starting back in 1991 at 407, if we had experienced straightline growth of 12%/yr, we would be looking for 2240 in 2005. PW opines that this down move could last a bit longer than we might like. With the 200SMA around 1975, maybe that is the target if this turns out to be an extended correction. WFN