| Sir_Gapscan |
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Gold User, Member, TeleChart
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| Registered User |
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| Unsure |
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| Friday, December 10, 2004 |
| Sunday, April 6, 2008 4:30:57 PM |
95
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Realitycheck, I am expecting commodities to correct some more as the stocks continue to selloff. The correction in commodities should end about the same time as the stock market does, it would be better for stocks if it takes two or three weeks longer. But we will just have to see what the markets give us.
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As I posted under FXI yesterday, I think NDX--X appears to be forming a five wave down move. If this is so; the forth wave could have ended two days ago & with it closing back below it's 50 day moving avg. today, the NDX--X could be about ready to selloff back down to it's March lows. If that happens we could get a small bounce before this final wave five selloff ends somewhere just under 1600 based on the length of the November selloff. If you do not think DUG will join the selloff, but you think I might be right about NDX--X, you can buy QID or REW to be short tech stocks. Or you can just short QLD, ROM or USD to be short the tech sector. If you do not like shorting , then I think you should just wait on the sidelines until this next selloff has time to finish. If we are about to get a fifth wave down in the Nasdaq stocks it will tell us two things, 1) the bear market rally to follow should retrace around 38% to 61% of this decline from the Oct. highs & 2) the bear market selloff to follow this rally should end below the bottom of the fifth wave selloff we appear to be starting now. Good luck & be careful investing in this bear market.
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Looking at the NDX--X, it looks like it may have finished the 4th wave of a five wave decline yesterday. If this is so, then a fifth wave down in the NDX--X should bottom out some where below 1600. If this does happen it will be the capitulation I am looking for around the middle of next month. If you think we are starting a fifth wave down it would be a good time to sell your longs & either sit on the sidelines until the decline it over or find something you hate to short.
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I think T Boone Pickens first one may have been good, just about two weeks to early. If XOIL is going to test the Feb. lows it should hold around here for a few days to pull in as much weak money as possible & then start selling off again. If DUG opens down some at the opening I think you should buy some as I think XOIL will be turning back down & we should have a good chance of seeing XOIL under $90 in three weeks. What T Boone Pickens said about building wind mills to produce electricity & building infrastructure to use nat. gas instead of gasoline in car was important to the future of cutting gasoline usage in automobiles.
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FXI had a nice little rally but I think it could run out of gas tommorow if oil & other commodities are not ready to go down any further. It might be a good idea to take some profits in the morning until you are sure commodities are going to turn down again.
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FXI starting to look like it as put in a double bottom with it's Aug. '07 lows. FXI needs to get above 20 day moving avg. & this index could be off to the races again with another good rally for two to three months. Looks like the Fed action & the banks actions have put a bottom in the markets for now & this could be a bull rally in a bigger bear market. For now I think you can look for different indexes & sectors to put your money for now. Look for dips to buy into.
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Yes, I think DUG should rally while XOIL is testing it's Febuary lows. DUG may only rally to a little over 50 for now before the oil & gas stocks join the rest of the market if it is still rallying. If you want to look at something to be long on dips, ITB, USD & SAA look good after todays action. UYG & QLD look like they should be ok to buy on dips also. XPLT maybe the metal to watch & see if the commodities are going to top out this year.
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This bear market could be one you will see about once every 20 years if it turn out to be as bad as it is starting to look to me. Alot of things coming together at one time to make this one worse than most.
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BigBlock, I think I basicly said that nothing had changed Monday after the vix spiked over 35 & that the market would have a bounce until after the Fed meeting before turning down & trying to have that capitulation we have been looking for. I think we are getting some help to get there this time, at least some of the banks(if not all of them) are reducing the amount of leverage speculators can put on the commodities they are buying, so basicly they are getting a margin call to slow things down. The way SMN & DIG closed I would not want to own any oil & gas stocks or basic material stocks for the next week or two, should be like trying to catch a falling knife.
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I know I am still hoping for that one last big capitulation to cover my shorts & go long. When we get these starts that do not keep going, I cover one of my shorts & wait for a bounce before I get short again. But; with the vix index spiking other 35 today, I think we are within two weeks of getting that major selloff alot of people have been looking for. I think we might bounce a little tomorrow with the Fed meeting, but after that is all over the easiest way for the markets to go will be down with the Fed having used up most of it's bullets.
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